Organic Grocer coming to Champaign, will the wait soon be over???
For years people in the community have been frustrated with the fact that Champaign-Urbana does not have a Whole Foods or Trader Joe’s. At one point as an April Fool’s joke, someone ‘leaked’ a story that Whole Foods was planning on coming to CU. There was even a petition going around in the summer of 2012 to have Trader Joe’s come to town. Every time I hear about one of these rumors, it tends to make me laugh and shake my head. (Do not mistake me, I would love either to come to town, as anyone who knows me, knows, I like to cook and even more so eat)
The reason that Trader Joe’s or Whole Foods will not come to our market is solely based on demographic make-up of our community. We simply do not have the population nor median household income (which is somewhat skewed due to the University of Illinois student population being counted in the demos).
The influx of 40,000+ college age students where the majority do not work more than part time, decreases the demos of CU dramatically. For example, if you run the demos for 1 mile radius of the quad, you get a population of 38,637 with a median household income of $23,140 and per capita income of $17,981. Looking at the big picture, CU (5 Mile radius of the quad, which encompasses all of Champaign, Urbana, and Savoy), you have a population of 143,517 with a median household income of $45,366 and a per capita income of $29,341. In summary, approximately ¼ of the population is made up by the students upping the population but dragging down the median household income as well as the per capita income.
According to Whole Foods website, here are their ‘typical’ requirements: population of 200,000 or more with 20 minute drive time, 25,000 – 50,000 SF store, large number of college-educated residents, abundant parking available for exclusive use, stand-alone building is preferred but would consider inline space, easy access from roadways on a lighted intersection, excellent visibility, and high traffic area (foot and vehicular).
So after running the numbers, here is how CU stacks up on a 20 minute drive time radius according to ESRI (data from a N. Prospect location): 192,998 total population (∆ of 4,000 from 2010 census); median household income $51,439; per capita income $30,670; 7.6% associate degree; 22.4% bachelor’s degree; 23.0% graduate/professional degree (53% of the population over 25 with an associate degree or higher); traffic counts of 19,700 VPD / negligible foot traffic. Currently the north prospect corridor has two spaces available in that size range which all have abundant parking, high visibility, and lighted intersection.
So what does all the numbers mean? We are on the cusp of hitting the Whole Foods published requirements, but our median household income, college educated population, and traffic counts are still a little low. There are several other factors that play into a company’s willingness to enter into a market. I would argue that CU’s trade area is closer to a 45 minute drive time baring all that the N. Prospect/N. Neil retail corridor has to offer including a 1,000,000 SF enclosed mall. Trader Joes does not publish their site requirements, but I assume they are relatively similar.
On a positive note, since I started in Commercial real estate, there have been at least four organic grocers (that I know of) look in the CU area. All have expressed a desire to be in the market, but for some reason or another (too many to list), they have focused on other projects outside of our area. I have heard rumors that there is a deal on paper for CU to gain a less know organic grocer, but will not believe it till I see it. In the meantime, let’s not forget about Common Ground at Lincoln Square Mall, or their expansion into downtown Champaign at the corner of Walnut & Washington that is to occur this year!
I hope you have enjoyed my thoughts in this article. Should you have any questions, please feel free to call (217.403.3425) or email at [email protected].