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GB Pound may go up even today

The regular currency market forecast by www.cfd1000.com will likely attract those forex traders, who deals with Russian and British currencies. USD/RUB will probably demonstrate movement within the range, established earlier. This movement is to provide the conditions for more predictable trade strategies for forex traders and online brokers. If actual Brent trading oil drop is over, USD/RUB will decrease a bit to enter the spans of new band 63.00-66.00. Current US dollar strengthening against Russian currency is obviously nearing completion today thanks to the expectations of FedRes session results. If forex markets consider Yellen’s speech to be rather soft, US Dollar will sink and USD/RUB will try to decrease below to the level of 65. As to www.cfd1000.com, report by US Department of Energy will be an additional supporting factor, if the decrease in US oil stocks subterranean storages is confirmed. Of course, GBP/USD changes should be said about as this pair is the main driver of fluctuations in currency market. www.cfd1000.com columnists have mentioned in one of the latest reviews that swings in the rate of this pair are sharp and chaotic. However, the behavior of forex investors indicates that nobody believes in real GB secession from EU. So if necessary catalyzer is present any attractive money market entry point will provoke such sharp upswings. This trading week will be full of events: these are FOMC panel session and Bank of England meeting. Any of them may encourage GBP/USD to go up to 1.44 level. Wholesale closing of excessive short positions, opened earlier by the forex traders, just before the referendum will also influence the rate, so he pair stands good chance to increase. www.cfd1000.com experts yet caution forex investors that it is risky to trade GB Pounds right now.

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Oil: forex traders buy if it drops below 50.35

www.cfd1000.com analysts are sure that the situation in oil market is favorable for forex traders and online investors. Brent and WTI trading oil prices are not on the firm ground as forex marketers worry about the possible return of shale oil-producing companies from USA to the commodity market.  The number of drilling units in use has increased for two-weeks in a row thank to these oil producers. Baker Hughes, the oilfield services company, fixed the increase in number of these well drills in USA by 3 units to 328 devices for the second time running. Nevertheless, this increase is not so much significant as it just makes forex traders nervous while oil price is at such a high levels. Increase in number by 3 units, after over 1.5 thousand of them have been taken out of service for the preceding year and a half, means nothing. As to www.cfd1000.com, the situation has not turned over yet. If further decrease and drop to below $50/bl, oil contracts will be attractive for opening long positions by forex investors and online brokers. Forex traders should buy Brent trading oil if the oil market closes above the resistance level of $50.35/bl. www.cfd1000.com highly advices them to pay attention to our risk recommendations. The amount of the opened position should depend on the amount of deposit. In all the cases the multiplier is to be equal to $60. If you have $500 deposit, open $18 long position and so on in direct proportion. If forex traders listen to us they will lose not more than 2.5% of the deposit at worst.

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Bullion market situation

www.cfd1000.com specialists would like to call the situation in the precious metals market to the notice of interested forex players and investors.  Gold closed this past trading week in black. The significant increase is attributable to subdued expectations concerning discount rise by FedRes in the coming months. On the Comex department of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) gold futures with delivery in August  increased by 0.25% or $3.2 to the level of $1275.9/oz, having reached the 17th of May maximum level of $1280.9/oz at the moment. Gold futures went up in price by 2.69% or $33.3 within a week, having displayed the growth for two weeks in a row. Forex Investors ruled out the possibility of discount rise in the course of FedRes panel session dated 14th-15th of June after last week US employment report had indicated that there had been only 38 thousand new jobs in May. As to Bloomberg, it has been the least employment gain since September, 2010. According to FedWatch service by CME group, forex marketers assess the probability of discount rise during forthcoming FOMC session at 1.9%. The probability of this year single discount rise is equal to 58.8%. Janet Yellen, the FedRes chair, has declared earlier that Central Bank was going to increase the rate, but did not give any timeframe of this rise. www.cfd1000.com experts mention, that gold prices increased in June by 5% after 6% decrease the month before, as the marketers had rescheduled next discount rise in USA. This year gold went up in price by 20% in tote against the skepticism of forex traders and the bullion market itself regarding FedRes capability to increase the rate as many times as it had been scheduled initially. Gold is very interest-sensitive. As to www.cfd1000.com, silver futures with delivery in July went up in price by 0.36% to $17.33/oz during Friday trading session. Silver futures increased by 5.9% within a week.  

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Russian currency may increase thanks to slide of Dollar

The regular marketing forecast, presented by www.cfd1000.com to all the forex traders and online brokers, covers next trading week prospects of currency market. Bank of Russia marked down the interest rate this past week, but Russian Ruble came through it smoothly. As of wwww.cfd1000.com, Central Bank made it clear that it would keep easing the monetary policy if inflationary expectations allowed it.  Consequently the regulator hinted at gradual decline of the rate. Forex investors should know that next week Russian financial markets will work on short time and in the course of the week 1st quarter Russian economy growth rate report and the industrial output report will be published. If economy contraction turns out to decelerate, Ruble will gain short-term support. www.cfd1000.com experts suppose as well that US FedRes not only will not increase the rate but also the explanatory note’s tone will be less aggressive during next session, which will take place on 15th of June. All these factors will not obviously work in US Dollar’s favor. It means that USD/RUB may tumble to previous week low of 63.24 and even drop to 62.60. Moreover, weakness in US Dollar may encourage the oil quotation’s upward trend. Regarding the UK Pound, www.cfd1000.com analysts are sure that any news, related to referendum, will stir up a hornet's nest of GBP/USD volatility. Besides that there will be some interesting reports from Great Britain next week.  If CPI data and labor market report seem to be optimistic for forex traders and online brokers, British currency stands good chance to revive the growth. GBP/USD primary goal will be the level of 1.4500.

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Oil: forex traders should buy Brent oil while it goes down to $50/bl

www.cfd1000.com oil market expert introduces for the consideration of incentivized forex traders and online brokers fundamental research of actual situation in oil market. After Brent trading oil prices had reached 10-months high, oil market debate concerning this upward trend explicability became more intense. It is being stated by Bloomberg news agency that over the range above $50.00/bl shale oil-producing companies may come back into the market and this will reduce US production decline rate. In such case oil delivery interruptions from Canada and Nigeria are claimed to be temporary factors only. This applies especially to wildfires in the Canadian province of Alberta, which are almost taken charge. But, nevertheless, www.cfd1000.com experts think that if oil goes down in price to $50.00/bl, the discussion on the justification of this slide in oil prices may be opened up. Nigeria is estimated by some analysts to put out of business about 800 thousand barrels per day.  Canada also is off to recover not only the barrels of oil, lost in the course of wildfires, but also those, which had been put out of business in 2015 due to oil price decrease and earnings dilution of bituminous oil production from Alberta. So, as of www.cfd1000.com, there are no reasons for large-scale oil price drop as well.  Especially, this goes for the height of holiday season in USA. The US data on the dynamics of drilling units will be the focus of forex investor’s attention. Baker Hughes, the one of the world's largest oilfield services companies will publish today this past week drilling unit’s dynamics Release. The increment of the number of drilling units in use will exert negative influence on oil prices but the regular reduction of these unit’s number may encourage oil prices to return to the range of 10-months peaks. Forex traders and online brokers are strongly recommended by www.cfd1000.com to open long positions, if oil prices will decrease in the range of 200-hours moving average about $50.60/bl. The deviation from 50-hours average will attain the extreme values at this level.

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Trading Thursday summary

As www.cfd1000.com specialists had mentioned above, the forex traders and online brokers were not very active in global financial markets in the course of today trading session. Only currency market was the exception of the rule. The fluctuations in money market began with Japanese Yen cross rates, where Yen unexpectedly was in great demand. At first GBP/JPY and then EUR/JPY were put under heavy sales by forex traders. It resulted in the weakness of these currencies and against US dollar. Both pairs closed the trading session in red, EUR/USD tumbled to the historic low of 1.1311, GBP/USD dropped to 1.444. USD/RUB followed the oil prices decrease, having returned almost all it had lost the day before. As to Bloomberg, NZD significantly increased against USD thanks to RBNZ decision to preserve the interest rate unchanged. Stock markets came under active selling as well due to forex investor’s escape from risk assets trade and to decrease of commodities prices. Brent trading oil dropped to below $52.00/bl level as oil market itself does not believe that oil upward trend will be continuous. As of www.cfd1000.com, in bullion market gold and silver prices displayed the moderate increase. After UK trade balance report GBP strengthened a bit as external surplus turned out to be negative but outstripped the forecast by 0.7 billion UK Pounds. www.cfd1000.com experts noticed as well that Asia-Pacific forex traders and online brokers had been disappointed with Chinese CPI index data.

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Will the Euro grow?

www.cfd1000.com presents the currency market forecast. USD/RUB managed to break past the lower value of 2-months range, having tumbled to 7-months low by following the Brent trading oil dynamics. Close correlation with oil prices seems to be recovered and large-scale weakness in US dollar provide conditions for Ruble’s being on firm ground. The forex investors and online traders are looking forward to Bank of Russia meeting, which will hardly influence USD/RUB behavior, if only Central Bank does not make a decision to mark down the rate by 150-200 base points. In this case ruble will receive negative impact and renew the plunge as its attractiveness as being asset for “carry trades” forex speculative strategy will significantly decrease. www.cfd1000.com experts consider that by today USD/RUB will keep going down to 62.20 if the oil dynamics is favorable. In spite of the fact, that EUR/USD decelerated, the trend of the pair is ascending and there are no serious upward motion interferences. EUR/USD is supported by two factors at once. First, US dollar is rather weak now after labor market data had substantially disappointed the forex traders and Janet Yellen toned down her rhetoric. Second, European Central Bank made it clear that it was not ready for additional reflation then and would look forward to the results. But it is noteworthy that these positive results are really being observed now. As to Bloomberg, EU 1st quarter GDP is revised upwards and the German industry increase outstripped the forecast.  www.cfd1000.com analysts are sure that in next weeks the reports from Euro circulation region will make the forex traders and online brokers happy, thus providing conditions for EUR/USD further growth. The short-term goal, the pair is aiming at, is 1.1460 level.

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AUD/JPY: the pair may keep growing

www.cfd1000.com would like to draw the attention of forex traders and online brokers to currency market. Important changes in exchange rate relation of some currencies stemmed there from important economic decisions of these countries authorities. AUD/JPY will probably keep growing. AS to Bloomberg, today the Reserve Bank of Australia made a decision to keep the interest rate unchanged at the level of 1.75%. www.cfd1000.com experts are sure that the regulator was stimulated by rather strong national economy growth rate statistics, published earlier. The explanatory note was nothing out of the way as well. The regulator had indicated housing prices increase but this news was levelled by the statement that the inflation rate will be low for a time. At the same time surprises will be sprung on forex traders at the hands of Bank of Japan. Especially when today data on 1st quarter economy growth rate turns out to be weak. It will trigger growing expectations of additional incentives on the part of Japanese authorities. www.cfd1000.com would like to remind forex traders that the regulator has already decided to postpone sales tax increase. AUD/JPY quotations established resistance level is now in the range of 80.70. If it is broken past the forex investors will be more active while opening AUD/JPY long positions. It will further lead to the pair quotations growth revival. Moreover, in intra-daily charts the quotations are being consolidated above the level of 50-intervals ascending moving average. www.cfd1000.com experts strongly recommend forex traders and online brokers to open AUD/JPY long positions at the value of $16 with market multiplier of 99 if their deposit is about $1000 and so on getting spread over with the increase of the deposit of forex traders.    

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What are the prospects of Russian ruble and what else are forex traders to expect from meeting of Bank of Russia (I)

As of www.cfd1000.com, weak US payroll employment data reduced the likelihood of June-July increase in rates by US Federal Reserve System, so interest of forex investors in risk assets and commodities assets was rekindled again. And thus Brent trading oil contract broke past psychologically and technically important level of $50/bl and Russian currency moved to the level of 65 Rubles per US Dollar. Next Friday the monetary policy session Of Bank of Russia will take place. The disinflation sets the scene for decline in Central Bank interest rate by 0.5%, but this CB solution will probably trigger short-term depreciation of the Ruble. What will be the trends of US dollar and EU Euro exchange rates this week and how will the exchange rate of Russian currency stand up to the decision Of Central Bank of Russian Federation?www.cfd1000.com journalists asked the most competent currency analysts to answer these questions. John Hardy, the chief currency strategist of Saxo Bank was the first respondent. He said that “Russian Ruble was able to remain at the upper limit of the range thanks to the weak US employment report, which added to risk appetite and encouraged the increase in currency rate of third world countries. It occurs on the assumption that US FedRes will be less aggressive in the course of next week panel session than forex traders and online investors have feared earlier as softer monetary policy of FedRes  impairs US dollar currency rate, therefore exerting minor pressure on global liquidity. Of Course, the employment data were so weak that from this moment on global forex market will be sensitive to any weak economic reports from USA, as it is of concern now that US economy is sailing close to be wrapped up in recession. So the rally of developing economies currencies may be severely limited in near future.”  As to Bloomberg, hope burns bright that Russian Central Bank will decrease the interest rate to 10.5%, considering both positive conditions for emerging forex markets and oil price stabilization about $50/bl. www.cfd1000.com experts are sure that it depends on signals of the regulator whether market is able to process these events without any difficulties. If the tone of CB annotations is more columbine than it was expected by forex traders, USD/RUB will manage to increase a bit.

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US Dollar collapsed after non-farm-payrolls report and will drop further

www.cfd1000.com expert explains forex traders and online brokers the problems of US economy after Non-Farm-Payrolls report publication. The things are turning ugly in the country, according to labor market official data. The employment level increased by 38000 people only. It is the worst growth indicator with las 5 years and a half. The growth turned out to be by 120 thousand people worse, than it had been expected and considering the negative revision of two previous month’s figures (-59 thousand new jobs), the picture is bleak at all. The decrease of unemployment level from 5% to 4.7% would have been good news, but it occurred at the expense of gainfully employed population (from 62.8% to 62.6%). Average weekly hours had been revised in April from 35.5 to 34.4 and did not change in May. This is the bad news as well. The dynamics of new jobs is declining for four months in a row and the figures are really terrific as compared to last October peaks (+295 thousand units). The situation in economy sectors is not optimistic to – services industry, including 71% of all employees, added only 61 thousand new jobs, but decrease in manufacturing by 10 thousand and in construction sector by 15 thousand peoples is observed. www.cfd1000.com would like to recall forex investors that while commenting the weak beginning of this year, US FedRes cited the scenario of some years in the past when the weak beginning had been followed by strong economy growth rate. But not now, we think. The Consumer Confidence Index is at the high level and the expenditures of Americans grow.  So as of www.cfd1000.com, the June discount rise seems to be unreal again.  It may occur in July only if the next labor market report is perfect.  And now US dollar dropped by 1.5% and forex traders should not open USD long positions – the will probably lose their money. The news on weakness in US currency is positive for gold price as it decreased because of US discount rise expectations and, at the same time, negative for oil upward trend due to the US economy weakness.

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Currency market: next trading week prospects

This analytical research by www.cfd1000.com is intended for forex traders, entering in foreign exchange transactions. Next week Russian currency will be dominated by expectations of Central Bank of Russia decision, concerning interest rate level. Recently currency market has relied on the possibility of monetary policy easing in near future. The level of inflation seems to be stationary – in March and April the indicator of inflation amounted to 7.3% on an annualized basis. So www.cfd1000.com experts suppose the regulator will settle for additional priming of economy and this incentives will potentially result in slide of Russian currency. But as far as price pressure is still considerable (According to State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation figures, since the beginning of the May prices have been increased by 0.4%) and in current conditions the decrease of ruble exchange rate will hardly exceed 0.5%. This is a drop in the bucket for the real economy sector but this measure may encourage the inflation rate. As of www.cfd1000.com, Central Bank of Russia will not ease the monetary policy in near future. Russian currency may acclaim inactivity of regulator enthusiastically, aiming at downward movement towards the lower bound of the span, established recently and limited by ranges of 64-67.50 rubles per US dollar. Regarding “Aussie”, Reserve Bank of Australia will probably preserve the interest rate unchanged in the course of next week panel session and this measure may provide an additional spark to the growth of AUD/USD with short term goal at the level of 0.7400.

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EUR/AUD: ECB decision may encourage the pair

The article by www.cfd1000.com covers the situation in global currency market, specifically EUR/AUD prospects. Forex traders are disappointed by unsuccessful attempts of EUR/AUD to go out of the range, established in the course of last month. Nevertheless, the good occasion to break past its upper bound will be today. It may occur not at the expense of weakness in “Aussie”, but thanks to Euro strengthening. EU currency will be testified by publication of European Central Bank monetary policy decision. The fact is that there is a chance of economy growth rate prediction increase. www.cfd1000.com specialists would like to remind the forex investors and online brokers that Organization for Economic Cooperation upgraded European Union GDP expectations from earlier 1.4% to 1.6. Besides, as it was noted many times by regulator’s representatives, they had done enough for reflation and the effect of taken measures is now expected. If Mario Dragi confirms the selected tone, Euro will receive the growth impact. The pair quotation’s resistance level is in the range of 1.5585. www.cfd1000.com experts are sure that if the level is surpassed, the forex traders will be more active while opening long positions and this will result in EUR/AUD quotations further increase. In both daily and intra-daily charts the quotations consolidate above the level of ascending 50-intervals moving average.

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Four factors, which influence Ruble fluctuations

Most forex traders and online brokers prefer to enter forex transactions, i.e. open forex exchange positions. So the article by www.cfd1000.com highlights global currency markets. USD/RUB revived the growth due to the same problem of drop in oil prices. Against this background the rhetoric of Alexey Uliukaev concerning the deficiency of risk for Russian currency  seems to be excessively optimistic. Actually, risk factors for Russian currency abound. First, oil prices dynamics is questionable. For the time being, Brent trading oil met with dogged resistance in the range of $50/bl and further upward movement may be restricted, especially under the conditions of limited oil demand and continuing supply growth on the part of OPEC countries representatives. Secondly, US dollar positions in the context of FedRes aggressive tone may go up, and this, in chain order, will put pressure on all the risk assets including Russian ruble. Forex traders re also disappointed by slide of Russian currency against US dollar. As to Bloomberg financial news, US regulator recently has set ready-for-additional discount rise signal as early as next panel session. Despite the fact, that economic picture has not been yet strong enough, aggressive measures towards tightening of monetary policy may trigger flow of global capital from developing-nation currencies in favor of major economies currencies. Thirdly, www.cfd1000.com experts are sure that policy of Bank of Russia remains ambivalent. They consider that it is necessary to go in for decline in interest rate under conditions of little dynamic potential of economy. And the regulator will go there on the request of forex investors. It will automatically lead to the surge of Russian currency sales by forex traders. Fourthly, as of www.cfd1000.com, the geopolitical question has not yet quitted. Once lifting of economic sanctions has been removed from the agenda, new spate of conflicts in Ukraine and resumption of hostilities in Donbas may exert negative pressure on ruble from time to time.

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«Aussie» gives surprises

www.cfd1000.com specialists review the currency market situation in the context of forex trader’s anxiety about Russian and Australian currencies. Russian ruble is dominated by the expectations of oil prices fluctuations. Two important events for Brent trading oil may trigger surges of quotations, and situations seems to be unpredictable under the circumstances. In spite of the fact, that most part of oil market has been promptly ignoring both comments of Saudi Arabians and OPEC actions for a long time, semiannual OPEC session, which is scheduled to take place on the 2nd of June, may give a surprise. So www.cfd1000.com experts consider that oil price may either go up to $54.00/bl or drop to $46.00/bl in no time. All these factors significantly extends boundaries of USD/RUB range to 64.00-69.00 for days to come, and, what is more, dynamics, which will be settled some hours later after the results of the meeting are made public, will be USD/RUB mid-term trend.  Today forex traders tracked the interesting reversal of AUD/USD: after continuous drop from 0.7834 to 0.7144 in the course of one month and a half, the pair managed to increase by a handle. It is not a confirmation of complete reversal but a good ticket to it, especially taking the fundamental base of upward movement into account. As of www.cfd1000.com, the problem is that for some weeks in row the currency market has convinced itself that RBA will settle for additional decline in interest rate because of national economy problems. But the latest economic reports from Australia display that the state of Australian economy is not so bad. The exports outstripped the forecast, the surge of activity is being observed in housing market, the number of building licenses increased by 3% m/m in April. So the regulator is possible to hold back from radical measures in near future. It means that AUD is oversold and is ready for upward correction. But the conservative forex investors and online traders should open long AUD/USD positions only after Friday publication of Non-Farm Payrolls report.

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Trading Monday summary

www.cfd1000.com brings the overview of Monday events in global financial markets. The market behavior was not very active as all the American financial markets were closed due to the Memorial Day celebration. The beginning of trading week was marked with new extraordinary demand for US dollar but some currencies, nevertheless, made the attempts to resist.  According to Bloomberg financial news, EUR/USD managed to recover from 2.5 months low of 1.1097, the European currency had tumbled to earlier. www.cfd1000.com experts are surprised at the fact that even in the context of lack of interesting economic reports and closed US markets, which had limited the business activity, USD/JPY managed to break past this month maximum of 111.44. Forex analysts consider it occurred thanks to controversial comments about profit tax in Japan. Forex traders are surprised to the upside by positive dynamics of stock markets as they gain support from shares of some enterprises. Regarding commodity market, Brent trading oil managed to close trading Monday in the black above $50.00/bl but beforehand the oil prices had fluctuated a bit. As of www.cfd1000.com, in bullion market silver and gold kept on suffering financial losses.  April import price index in Germany dropped by 0.1% month-to-month or by 6.6% on an annualized basis while 0.4% increase month-to-month and 6.2% decrease on an annualized basis were expected. These figures disappointed European forex investors, having exerted negative pressure on European currency.

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Oil downward correction is round the corner

www.cfd1000.com gives the oil market forecast to the attention of forex traders and online investors. Last week Brent trading oil has broken $50.95/bl maximum, but it did not manage to maintain the level. Next week oil price is very possible to continue the downward correction. OPEC countries meeting, which is scheduled for the 2nd of June, will be the main event of the week. The summit will hardly spring a pleasant surprise to the forex investors. Considering rhetoric of some countries (Saudi Arabia, Iran), it is obvious that they are not ready to reduce the quotas. Vice versa, under actual terms the fight for oil market share aggravates. www.cfd1000.com experts are sure that the oil production decrease is out of the question. It is negative information as the production decrease would result in supply and demand balance achievement. So Brent will go down in price as soon as the expected negative results of the summit are made public. $48.20/bl will be the primary goal and if this level is subdued oil will go down in price to $47.00 in no time. Manufacturing PMI report from China will also be published next week. This country is one of the largest consumers of copper in the world. As of www.cfd1000.com, the PMI can’t consolidate above fifty since March of 2015 and this is indicative of further slowdown in industrial sector of China. As a result, copper quotations may come under pressure. The level of 2.0660 will be short-term decrease goal.  

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Oil market situation

In this article www.cfd1000.com financial experts will analyze oil market situation. Trading oil prices keep on staying at vantage point to rise. As to Bloomberg, in its regular weekly release American Petroleum Institute fixed that oil industry commercial stocks had decreased by 4.5 million barrels by the end of previous week. It turned out to be overwhelming by 2.25 million barrels increase. Nevertheless oil prices have just ignored this negative indicator, as it had occurred many times within the last month. To all appearances, online forex traders and brokers consider levels about $50/bl and below and to be favorable for long positions opening pay more attention to possible production decrease. Financial news inform all the interests, that API’s report has been included into Energy Information Agency data to be published today, at 16.30 GMT. So the substantial increase in stocks is likely to be fixed here as well. Respectively after report’s issue trading oil prices are apt to drop providing great scope for investors to buy. Forex traders buy Brent oil about 200-hours trending. www.cfd1000.com analysts advise online brokers and traders to invest at least $700 in oil deal. Stop-loss is $50.20/bl. If stop-loss occurred, investment risk should not be more than 2.5% of deposit to remain conservative