Electoral Math 10/14/16

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Electoral Math 10/14/16
Baseball's Great No-Hitter That Didn't Happen
I wanted to share a baseball story with you that I thought you might appreciate. Tomorrow (July 1st) is the 25th anniversary of one of the most bizarre occurrences in Major League history.
I was visiting my sister who was a grad student at Southern Illinois University in the summer of 1990. I was an 18 year old kid from Long Island and was travelling home by train. The train from Carbondale to Chicago left at 4:30 in the morning and arrived in Chicago at 9:30 in the morning. My connecting train to New York left 12 hours later. With a day to spend in Chicago, and having no idea where to go or how to get there, I picked up a copy of the Tribune to see if there was a Cubs or White Sox game in town that afternoon. As it turned out, the White Sox were hosting the Yankees, my favorite team.
After unsuccessfully trying to flag down several cabs to take me to the old Comiskey Park (it was in its last year) before the Sox moved across the street, one cabbie was willing to take me down to the South Side. He let me know how to make my way back on the L.
After walking around the outside of the stadium for a few minutes, I decided that, for the day, I would pose as a White Sock fan.
I bought a limited view seat on the second deck in right field. Most of the right field corner was blocked and an I-beam was directly in front of my seat.
The Yankees’ starting pitcher was Andy Hawkins, a career #3 guy and Greg Hibbard who made more of a name for himself as a reliever than a starter in his career started for the White Sox.
The game turned out to be a pitcher’s duel. Hawkins was perfect through 4 2/3 innings and Hibbard was perfect for the first 5 1/3.
The game was still scoreless in the bottom of the 8th. Hibbard gave up 4 hits in his 7 innings of work and reliever Barry Jones went scoreless in the 8th. Andy Hawkins gave up 2 walks in the 5th and another walk in the bottom of the 7th, but had yet to allow a hit.
After Hawkins retired Ron Karkovice and Scott Fletcher on pop outs to Yankee second basemen Steve Sax, the wheels suddenly came off. Sammy Sosa (yes, Sosa was on the south side of Chicago at that time) reached on an error by third baseman Mike Blowers. Sosa stole 2nd and the bases were loaded on walks to both Ozzie Guillen and Lance Johnson. Robin Ventura came to the plate, and on the first pitch hit a routine fly ball to left field. Jim Leyritz misplayed the ball and it glanced off his glove for a 2 base, 3 run error. Ivan Calderon then hit a flyball to right center that Jesse Barfield tracked down, but committed a fielding error as well. Ventura came around to score and Calderon ended up on 2nd. Former Yankee Dan Pasqua ended the inning on a popout to shortstop Alvaro Espinosa.
The Yankees did not score in the top of the ninth, and Andy Hawkins pitched his way into the history books with a no-hitter where pitcher throwing the no-hitter lost the game. In the history of baseball (to that point), only 3 games had been played with this result. Matt Young lost despite a no-hitter in 1992, and Jered Weaver and Jose Arredondo combined for a no-hit loss in 2008.
Following the season, in large part due to this game, Commissioner Fay Vincent called for a “Committee for Statistical Accuracy” that would look at several statistical anomalies in baseball and provide new guidelines. One of the guidelines the committee decreed was that a no-hitter had to be a complete game of at least 9 innings. As a result of this decision, Andy Hawkins masterpiece, his no-hitter, was taken away. Since he was on the visiting team, he did not have to pitch the 9th inning. Roughly 50 other no-hitters (mostly rain-shortened) were also taken away.
The Committee did some admirable things as well, including taking away Roger Maris’ asterisk (61*) for the single season home run record after nearly 30 years of not being officially considered the record holder.
I thought you might appreciate the story, and take a few moments to reflect on the no-hitter that didn’t happen.
Overall, my popular vote projection held up pretty well with a difference of 0.54% nationally between my projection and the actual outcome.
At the state level however, only 1 state was projected within 1% of the actual outcome (highlighted in green), 14 more were within 2% (yellow), and 6 more were within 3%.
The average difference was 4.10%, with a standard deviation of 2.87%. This would represent roughly that my projection was twice as accurate as any individual poll.
Florida, Florida, Florida
Pres. Obama currently leads in Florida by 47,000 votes (0.56%), although the 29 electoral votes attached to victory have not yet been called. It looks very mich like I'm going to have picked Florida incorrectly. The margin of victory I had projected for Mitt Romney was 1.23%. Certainly a 1.79% difference with the result is not a major miss, but it's looking an awful lot between the perfect map or not.
Signing off
1 state left and I'm still perfect. As a reminder, here's my final map from yesterday.
Florida hasn't been called yet, but Obama leads by 60,000 votes with 92% reporting. Looks like Florida will be my only miss. In 2008, I only missed Indiana. My popular vote projection at this point is a little bluer than the actual electorate, but I think I'm going to end up pretty close. Most of the uncounted votes at this point are on the west coast where Obama will make significant gains in the popular vote. We'll see tomorrow how it ends up.
For now, have a good night.
CBS calls Alaska for Romney
Obama 303, Romney 206
Only Florida left.
AP has called Nevada and Virginia for Obama...
NBC not yet.
If so, only Florida (too close to call) and Alaska (polls open for 20 more minutes) from the perfect board.
Looks to me though that Florida might go Obama's way. I have Romney.
Colorado for Obama
Obama 283 EV, Romney 203 EV
4 states to go. Haven't missed yet.
Polls Don't Lie
Particularly a lot of them!
Tim Kaine!
46 for 46 so far.
Hawaii for Romney? Error?
Corrected. Thanks.
Ohio for Obama
Obama 274 EV, Romney 203 EV
Barack Obama reelected President
Oregon for Obama
Obama 256 EV, Romney 203 EV
Iowa for Obama
Obama 249 EV, Romney 203 EV
North Carolina for Romney
Obama 243 EV, Romney 203 EV
Just a thought
Only Indiana and Nebraska CD2 have switched from 2008 so far.
North Carolina might, Virginia, Florida and Ohio still could.
And as soon as I say that...