GARSINII

Only a sinner saved by grace.

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Prince is One of the Greatest Economist Ever (In Music, That Is.)

The music industry is obviously best known for its entertainment, and the abstract sounds that captivate our ears. But who knew it would be a great place to learn about economics as well! By now I’m sure we are all familiar with the law of supply and demand. Now, in order to seek full profit maximization;you must either seek to, be, control or create the Demand market (like Steve Jobs did with the iPhone.) I know it may sound like a monopoly, because it is. Due to the The Antitrust Laws in place, Big Brother forbids this practice in the United States. Nonetheless, having the democratic rights to exercise patents, copyrights, trademarks, etc. This can give you the ability to somewhat have exclusive possession or control of the supply, trade, or service. Everyday in the news we see people getting taken to court over violations of ownership and rights. Often times being reward with heaps of cash if the decision is ruled in their favor. This happens more than often in the music industry. I’m sure if you wanted to learn a thing or two, Sean Parker and Napster will be happy to fill you in. The music industry acquires revenues through numerous sources such as concerts, retail, songwriting and most of all, the label. Having copyrights in the music industry is the name of the game. Before music was happy-go-lucky; it was simple ‘You pay, I play’. When record labels started growing, that’s when the radio stopped and Pandora opened her box. These labels have now found easy to detach artist from their work (Voice with rights and ownership in exchange . This inevitably leads to two things: Label Corporations make like bandits, and these artist and are left with nothing less than a song on Billboard and 5 years of Faded Glory…Heck, they might be even lucky enough to make it 10years. Only a handful of musicians were smart enough to read the fineprint or just use plain economics. And Prince was probably one of the best of them. Prince Rogers Nelson was an American singer, songwriter from the good ‘ol state of Minnesota. Prince is undoubtedly one of the best of all-time. Though best known for his music we must not forget his hard fought court battles for the protection of copyrights, and ownership of his music against Warner Bros. In the 90’s he took his stance by marking the word “SLAVE” on his face as a response to the negligence of major labels and cruel treatment to these artist. His stance on the monopolistic behavior labels gained ground with musicians and boosted his image as an artist. Locked in chains to his label, Prince responded by giving albums away for FREE. Musicology in 2004 and Planet Earth in 2007. This action paid off tremendously as it boost his promotion and marketing and creating one of the biggest fanbases of all time. Prince did not stop there, over the course of his career he sought action against Youtube, Facebook*, Pirate Bay for illegal use of his content. Prince never took ownership lightly. Even versions of his song sang by other artists and recordings of him in concert were removed from the internet. Personally I see no surprise in winning seven Grammy awards, Selling over 100 million albums worldwide, 40 number 1 top 100 Billboard songs, and 7 multiplatinum albums. Prince’s impressive career was set on nothing less than his brilliant decision-making process, or what I like to call… Economics.

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A little Rumble and Little Tumble. • As we are gearing up for the 2nd week of the year The markets saw a mixed day today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 54.7 points (+0.33%) while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed at +0.12% and -.09% respectively. Last week premiere was logged the worst opening week to a year the Stock Market has every seen. A near 9% down move has everyone crying and panicking; as if we haven't see 270% gains in the past 8 year bull Market. Quite Frankly, I don't think it should've come to a surprise as it did, considering the past Global Macro headlines that are arising along with my strong beliefs a pending global credit dilemma. In China, we are seeing economic woes as the Chinese Rimbi starts to depreciate and commodity values aren't offsetting to get a stable grip. While many are blaming China for this modest Decline. I believe the matter stems further from China. My answer?... OIL. •Oil inventories has risen by 7.2 million barrels since last quarter. * Large British and American coal mining companies are filing for bankruptcy at record rates. * 3.2 Million people lost their jobs due to Clean,and Renewable energy. With Oil prices unable to find stable footing it has allowed added downward pressure to any negative headwind. Prices are nearly $30/barrel which is down 70% since 2014. Oil is The biggest problem we face as earthlings is the inability to shake off Oil Addictions. As we have been dependent on the Black Water for our main source of energy for the past 200 years; Nations, corporations, organizations are having a hard time get over the fact that our future calls for a cleaner and more efficient means of energy... No one said breakups are easy. Recently, state governments have agreed to mobilize at least $100 billion in public and private finance for clean energy.The transition into a new clean economy will bring some turbulence within the global markets. It's my passion analyzing Environmental Economics, as well as striving for a cleaner and greener energy for the betterment all. That being said, I can assure you this transformation will a historical divergence. #GlobalMacro #Economics #StockMarket #CleanEnergy

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After trading over 10 million seconds in the Stock Market.. Physics never made more sense. Tomorrow can close a door that has been shaping your life for the past +8years (some would say 30 years)... But you don't know it. You will continue with your daily routine, and not come to a realization that a group of 7 men and woman are about change the face of the global economy. But you should. Why?... Because the day of being spoiled with free money lending from the government is coming to an end. Just imagine taking a pacifier from an 8 year old. Doing so just doesn't paint a pretty picture. SCENARIO 1: RISE IN INTEREST RATES Corporations realize borrowing money to expand will have a interest rate----> Leads to a lower rate of production and output because of higher cost.------> Less wages being handed out. ------> leads to less disposable income for many American and workers around the world (since more work is being done internationally than ever.)-----> less revenue for businesses SCENARIO 2: INTEREST RATE LEFT UNCHANGED Lowering the interest rate WAS a great way to spur economic growth after a crisis or crash. Leaving the fund rate at 0% puts the globe in greater danger if a crisis does come along. Weeks ago we escaped with a clip on the chin after China's market collapsed. With the global economy so dependent on oil I can see trouble looming, understand that we are switching to a cleaner and alternative means of energy. Oil is not going to go out without a fight I promise you that. With all this being said tomorrow will see the immediate ACTION, and Q2 2016 will be the REACTION. ... It's gonna get ugly. $SPY $DJIA #QQQ #StockMarket #Trading #FederalReserve #Economy #MuchMoreToSayButItsEnoughForNow.

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If the #Market falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?

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Market Madness... Or Lack There Of?

      Its the beginning of the month of June– halfway mark of the year(already). Yet We ask, where has the Market gone?… NOWHERE. This ominous event has been said to be one a rarest. This is an event that has never happened to the Market in over 100 years some analysts say. However, like the saying goes, there is a first time for everything. At a glance, this years’ performance for the  U.S. top Indices, we can see that since the beginning of the year Dow Jones has gained 207.38 points (+1.16%) the S&P 500 is up 53.53 point otherwise a measly 2.6% gain. The NASDAQ is up 356.12 points ( 7.52%) Mostly due to the fact of the outstanding performance of the tech sector. Traders, and investors around the world are puzzled by the markets behavior. In no way am I saying that I am a stock Market Oracle, but by using empirical research and the right tools certain patterns can become indicative as to what or why the market is reacting the way it is.

     What market experts are saying-is that we are witnessing “Market Consolidation.” That means the market prices are trading in a clear support/resistance pattern or barrier of trading levels. This isn’t all bad, consolidation is healthy! You can consider it as Mr. Market heading to the sideline for a quick refresher, before heading back out to dominate!! Usually market consolidations in the past lead to great up swings launching us to a new level Economically speaking. However, I believe the market is forming a Symmetrical Triangle-Wedge formation.

     There are some recent Market news that could be the reason for this. We look at the Feds push to raise interest rates by mid year as long as the economic data permits. Last week our winter Economic data was below expectations, the main spotlight being the GDP shrinking .07% from projections. Another Major factor is the US Dollar Index. This year we saw the return of the King Dollar trumping all currencies of the world in the first half of the year which led to the idea of a ”better economy” encouraging the Fed to raise short-term rates. However, after a melancholic month of May  for the dollar, it may force the fed to go back to the drawing board. Other factors include trade deficits, Consumer Spending, and overall inflation.

     In Global Markets, my focus this year has been the European markets. After seeing shaky ground early on in the year, we could start to see stability and growth once the Greece default deal nears a close, AGAIN! (GET IT TOGETHER, GREEKS!).

     Across the way in the Asian Markets, Stocks are soaring to uncharted territory. Chinese equities are up for the 13th straight day! making the Shanghai Composite nearly +50% this year alone. Marginalized debt, asset valuation, along with some other factors- seems to be the fuel to this rally, or what  would call a Stock Market Bubble.  With both the USA and Europe hold the needle. Once the financial data finalizes in the markets for U.S. And Europe. Asia could without a doubt see a collapse.

Ill: Bob Rich-Hedgeeye

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When you hear the word value, you probably think in the sense of money right? But If not, good for you. Technically value has many meanings, whether it’s value of the shoes on your feet. Or the value of someone’s opinion (Oh! Like The stocks in my ‘Pick-List’ and my Portfolio, which I’ve consistently written about in previous posts, are yielding nearly 30% returns, but who’s counting?) Whether or not it is tangible or intangible they have one thing in common, and that’s what its the WORTH. Unlike the playground, the Stock Market is where I spend most of my days. So fortunately for me I spend a vast amount of my time evaluating valuable stocks from the chaffy ones. Since earnings call dawned a new season, I find it fitting to touch base on valuation. There are a lot of tools that you can uses to distinguish market valuation. The three valuation tools I use are. Shiller- Price/ Earning Ratio, Market Cap/ GDP ratio and the Yield Spread.. Market Cap/ GDP ratio: Current = 125% usually, >100% is overvalued <50% is undervalued

Shiller- Price/ Earnings Ratio: 27.38 The Average P/E ratio is 16.7

Treasury Yield Spread: Current= 1.93% The average TYS is 4.35 The yield spread simply refers to the difference between the quoted rates on two different instruments; the value lies is the risk for investing in one over another.

based on the extent of the research using the multiple - valuation method fair value for the S&P 500 is very oversold and it is trading at 14.4x earnings. Its does sound a little scary but if we can remember. back in 2003 US equities were trading nearly 130% overvalued and continued to grow. Are Stocks cheap? No. are they risky right now? Yes, Extremely. If data normalizes over the next couple months, we could see a support. Otherwise a Correction is imminent. #StockMarket #Investing #Trading #Economics #Stocks #MarketOutlook

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Summer gave us a hug today.☀️#nyc. (at Hell's Kitchen, Manhattan)

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Sitting Ducks

It’s great news across America. After a rough and bumpy road in the start of 2015. On Friday we saw The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index fell 29.78 points, or 1.4 %, to 2,071.26. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 278.94 points, or 1.5 %, to 17,856.78. The NASDAQ fell 55.44 points, or 1.1%, to 4,927.37. So far, the U.S. Economic data has been everything but disappointing. When looking at the overall economy there are plenty of gears that make it work. However, I pay keen attention to the major indicators that influence the market those being: •Real GDP   •Consumer Price Index   •Producer Price Index •Housing Starts •Money Supply. All of which better than expected results accept from the Consumer Price Index which declined by a slight 1%.

It’s clear that the economic status of the United States has progressed in most of its major categories. One might ask, if the Economy is doing so well, then what can possibly be the driving force behind the Market acting so poorly? It’ simple. The Fed. From a quick technical Perspective the S&P 500 price Moving average continues to edge down as well as a bearish Candlestick pattern looming. As better than expected economic data continues to roll in, investors and traders are sitting at the edge of their chairs to see if the Fed would react to this positive data. 

The latest speech by Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, was a reminder yet again that The Fed would remain ‘patient’ in rising interest rate from 0% until they see substantial progress. If you ask me, good news seems to be flooding in the past couple of weeks. As a trader too get nervous as too what when they will make a move. I continue to scale out of US stock positions until Fed Reserve makes a moves or its headwind brings peace to the markets. In the meantime, I’m focused mostly on European Stocks and ETFs at hand. As The Euro Zone begins to see its brighter days its market is starting to wake up as well. Next time I’ll dive deeper in to what Euro Stocks are hot at what’s driving them… Ciao! ✏️: Bob Rich- @Hedgeeye

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Looking at the ETF Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy (#GEX) it’s an ETF that is compiled of some of the best Alt. energy companies. Looking at this traded fund which is currently trading at $53.08 is down a mere 1.5% below this year’s open. At a Glance, we see $GEX price isn’t quite at a key support level, however it is trading at vital Fibonacci ratios 61.85% and 50% support ratios. Another important factor that is indicative about this stock is the current price and value of the stock related to its historic movements. When a shares starts to trade above its Long Term Moving Average, one can likely assume the stock will continue in long term trend. I use Relative Strength Index that justifies my price valuation it tells me if the stock is over bought or oversold. From the reading of a 30 day span, the ETF is certainly oversold. Some notable stocks that I’m also watching keenly is ($ONNN) ON Semiconductor corp. ($ATML) Atmel Corp., and most importantly ($SUNE) SunEdison, Inc. Diving into an Economic standpoint we are starting to see a global increase of countries working towards sustainable energy. The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) sees growth in the renewable energy market a whopping 69% by 2025. Just recently India, one of the world’s largest pollutants launched reforms to obtain capital to develop sustainable resources. China, for example, has already installed nearly half the 200 gigawatts of wind power it had been planning for 2020. As for emerging markets such as Turkey, Brazil, Vietnam, India and Russia I believe they are taking the best grasp at contributing strongly to this growth due to the fact that this type of energy is more affordable. I believe the growth of this market has indeed been cripple by geo-political affairs and nonetheless the Oil markets effect on the overall sector. Sustainable and renewable energies have a way to go before they are on solid ground, I believe we should see price stability and growth within the years to come. #NYSE #Trading #Investing #StockMarket #Economics #Energy #CleanEnergy #GreenEnergy #Insight.

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Keep calm ladies and gentleman its earnings season! Beginning last week, companies began announcing their Q4 2014 earnings report. It seems to me that this is the only thing that is holding the market together right now. Although I primarily study technical analysis today I'll be offering my insight of some fundamental economic analysis that we should all keep our eyes on starting with Asia. In Asia, specifically Japan, with the country seeing a decrease in demand? It seems like deflation might be the name of the game. In China we see its real GDP growth slow from over high 10% 5 years ago to 7.3% in Q3 2014, deflation happens It happens when the volume of money and credit are falling, but the volume of goods and services are falling even faster. In Inflation we have the prices of goods and services increase while your purchasing power is decreasing. In Europe, the circus is in town, But in this circumstance or should I say CIRCUSstance the Wrigley Bros. arent the ones hosting the show. Today the FTSE 100 index fell more than 2% to 6.388.46 points. While the Japanese Yen and British Pound are getting pounded, we are seeing how they are contributing to the strength of the dollar index (DXY). The Japanese economy is weak, and it looks as if more stimuli will be coming from the Bank of Japan. Weak U.K. economic data is likely make Mario Draghi push an interest rate hike by the Bank of England well into the future. Coming back to the US, we are looking at the 10-year treasury as we saw the Long term treasury down 3.3 % today..YIKES! As we know bond market works inversely with the stock market-Some ugly activity seems to be brewing the S&P 500. It is looking at a 5 day skid closing with a - .82 % on the day. This seems to be rare in this type of market environment. On a lighter, brighter, and more yellow note my favorite commodity GOLD seems to be coming out of the wood work...which +2% in the past few days. Although it is still trading in a consolidated price range it’s no secret that is a safe investment to hedge this wild market. #SPX #StockMarket #Investing #Trading #Economics #DXY #FTSE #NIKKEI #

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Interesting price channel the #SPX of forming. Bearish Double Top is in effect. This week could be a bumpy one. #SPX #VIX #Trading #Investing #StockMarket #Volatility #TechnicalAnalysis

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Howdy y'all Hope you all enjoyed the Christmas day as much as me. Today I'm covering the performance of the equity and future markets from 2014, and also how to use this information help us prepare for the new year to come. In my previous post I went over the debacle of the oil markets and the Global effect of the prices, and how it impacted Russia. I can only imagine what Putin is doing at this very moment now that his country is sitting in the pig pen. My guess is he's probably burning his Ruble to keep warm during this winter... with the pigs, I mean, it did sink down to twice the level it was at last week now being valued at 150 Ruble per 1 US dollar!!! OUCH! As Friday's sun rose (in some places) we saw record high across the board. The Dow Jones (#DJIA) saw modest gains of 23½ points to finish the day at 18,053. The S&P 500 (#SPX) flirting with its end of the year target of 2100, closed at 2,088, + 0.33%. As for the NASDAQ (#NDX) rocketed up to 4806.86 up 0.71%. YEARLY RECAP DOW JONES: +8.9% S&P 500: +12.11% NASDAQ: +15.50% The numbers don't lie people. This seems to be the best year for the market post 2008 crisis. US also hoisted the trophy this year with the Best economy in 11 years with a GDP revised up to a 5% annual pace beating its 3.2% estimate. We are now sitting at 16.8 Trillion dollars mostly due to the high income values. U-S-A! U-S-A! LOOKING FORWARD: There's a lot that goes in to analyzing, back testing, and research when trying to make a "prediction" within the market. Let me say this CLEARLY I am no way am I telling you what to buy, when to buy or what to sell and when to sell. That would be illegal, and I don't want the SEC knocking at my door. I find it easier when you look at the past, because it helps me know how to prevent contemporary problems. As well as detecting similar patterns. Going into 2015, I’m staying with my bread and butter, the energy sector. Yes… I know, I know. The Energy sector has indeed been the worst performing sector of the year down nearly 9%, but wait! For me that’s a good sign. Throughout the past, bottom-of-the-barrel performers tend to be the biggest rebounders in the following year. (#XLE) is a S&P 500 energy ETF that is current trading at key levels bouncing of its 200-day moving average. My play is to watch to see if energy would hold at these current levels, if not Look for its next support level 20% below its current price. I’m expecting oil and refinery stocks to make a good comeback. $CVE & $VLO are stocks I am watching in particular. US dollar and Emerging Market are two things I am also watching for 2015In the following chart I compared both the USD and Emerging market Index and the chart was fascinating. This year we saw the dollar trump all global currencies. Currently up 11.5% the USD is soaring past its 200 day moving average, which usually indicates long term growth. It has only been at these levels 3 times since the 2008 crash. If it breaks above these levels, look to see a huge spike towards its next key mark at 101.57. As for Emerging markets I follow the SYDR ETF ($EEM) which it trading at its current support price. It will be interesting, as we know currencies can also effect inflation, which in turn may lead central banks to hike interest rates, further pressuring Emerging Markets. Next Blog I will be diving deeper into this topic looking at the interest rates going into the 2015 and how it will impact the global Macro Economy. Hope everyone enjoys the New Year holiday! Peace world.

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We saw oil climb from its worst levels since 2009. With WTI Crude oil surging +5% to $57/barrel and Brent Crude up 3.5% and $61/barrel. As a result, the black gold is currently sitting at key technical levels. Also, with the rise in oil production and refining, we should look to see a considerable rally in the near future. It was a wild week for Russia as the Ruble ended up seeing massive declines. As the country sits on the brink of stagnation, the central bank sought efforts to save the country by raising the interest rates from 10.5 to 17%. As for The US, the markets boasted its best week of the year of 2014. Not to mention. The best week in 3 years! as the year comes to a close. The Dow closing at 17,804 and the S&P closes just above 2000, +9.5% for the year. It appears as the S&P will close this year at projected levels of 2100. Next week will be big as we see how the Russian bear markets will effect global economy. I'll be coming out New technical analysis report in the coming week. Happy Holidays! #DJI #SPY #QQQ #RUT #CL

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BRINKING BUILLION

        When I first got into trading I was always found myself at the cusp of why the markets behave the way they do. Every time that I think I got the magic answer. ...I seem to always find a way to be on the other side of a mighty smite by Mr. Market. It wasn't until I discovered a method of trading called Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions. After doing some extensive research about the Fibonacci Ratios and all of the above, I suddenly became attached by the numbers, and how they unlock certain answers to the complexity of our universe. Its also amazing how to number make up the complexity of  everything  in our every day life from a Flowers to the to genetic make up of the human body. Its believed that these numbers play a significant role in our lives and even in the stock market.

         This week was a big one for the precious metal. As we saw Crude oil plunge. Markets saw a rally within the Gold where its now trading between the 1200 levels. A couple countries have already taking strong stand this year due to the price movements. It has been reported this year China has imported 1300 tonnes of gold. Its second consecutive year as the worlds largest Gold Supply. In recent news, Switzerland voted down the referendum that would require the Swiss National Bank to purchase approximately 1,500 tons of gold to boost its gold reserves to 20% in accordance with the initiative, would also act as a floor on the price of gold. Boasting a newly high Consumer Index India has also seen a rise in demand for gold related jewelry by 60%. Its safe to say that 2014 has been a recalibrating period for gold. In the US there was also a rise in demand for coins, bars, and ETFs by 6%

Looking at a technical Standpoint gold is trading at a key technical level we must pay attention to. On the chart below I drew a Fibonacci Retracement. The Fib levels are clear and prices are at the 61.8 % level. This number in the Fibonacci sequence is important because its known as the golden ratio. In trading one strategy I use is looking for bounces off the 50% and movements of the 61.8% and that exactly what you are seeing in the chart below.  It is said that if the price breaks the 61.8 % institutions and investor no long deem the price reasonable so there for  level the trend is now broken sending momentum for the stock or good its respectable direction. In this scenario  gold is currently trading 4 % above that golden ratio level (no pun Intended) if it breaks the 61.8 %  gold could spiral out of control however if it does indeed test this level we can expect a long term gold trend in the near future.

... it will be fun to watch in the coming days.

  - G.

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I LOVE GOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLDD

I want to share a chart that I found very interesting. But before I get started, There's a quote you've all heard before by the one, and only Warren Buffet that I will never forget... even if I get Alzheimer's (God Forbid). 

"'Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful''Looking at this chart I'm analyzing 

Lets take a glance at the 32 oz Gold AUG 14 Futures chart below. While analyzing this chart couple things stuck out to me that I wanted share. The yellow metal  showed modest gains from the beginning of this year of 17%.However since reaching its highs, it has been everything but a smooth ride.THAT got my attention. I used a couple indicators to analyze what and when the next possible moves might be. I like to use the short term indicator 50-day moving average (average closing price over the last 50 days), and the long term indicator 200-day Moving average(average closing price over the last 200 days). Those two are beneficial when analyzing price movements. I notice that a couple days ago a death cross formed around My 29. a Death Cross is a bearish signal when the 50-day crosses below the 200-day. which in end results in a steep downward movement. In this case, the Death cross seems to be come at a key level . Back in April I was waiting to see what the metal will do when it reaches support levels at 1278, and sure enough it broke lower. This time around I added the MACD. It's another study I use to help distinguish bull and bearish momentum within the given security. I look to see when the next possible crossover will occur and sure enough it looks like a bullish movement is arising like a Phoenix out of the fire!

THE CATCH:

Like most trades its not the matter of what is going to happen, its when. 

THE PLAY:

Within the coming days see if gold continues its death cross to hit the next support level at or around 1178. until then, I'm constantly looking for the next GOLDEN cross (the inverse moving average action) .When that occurs I'll return. 

-G. 

[isitsoorisitnot]

Indicators reach values specific only to bear markets - the bear is back!

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