MG-A

[growlbert-blog]

The definition of a good night:

Good friends

Good drinks

DJ Shadow

Happy Saturday folks.

[growlbert-blog]

Obligatory 2013 Predictions Post

Little late getting this up, but I need to get this stuff on record!

NL Division Winners:

San Francisco GIants

Cincinnati Reds

Washington Nationals

Wild Cards: Atlanta Braves, LA Dodgers (barf)

Playoffs: Braves over Dodgers

NLDS: Reds over Braves

NLDS: Nats over Giants (sniff)

NLCS: Nats over Reds (hopefully in seven; what a great series this would be)

AL Division Winners:

Los Anaheim Angels of Los Anhamgeles

Detroit Tigers

Tampa Bay Rays

Wild Cards: Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays

Playoffs: Jays over Rangers

ALDS: Angels over Jays

ALDS: Tigers over Rays

ALCS: Angels over Tigers

World Series: Nats over Angels.

If I hit on 50 percent or higher, I'll call this year a win.

[growlbert-blog]

2013 NL Over/Unders: Homerism at its Finest

The AL is done, locked, loaded, and easily 35% correct. Now it's time for the NL, about which I cannot remain wholly objective, so long as there are Giants.

Without further ado, here we go:

Braves 86 OVER

Brewers 79½ UNDER

Cardinals 85½ UNDER

Cubs 72 UNDER

D’Backs 81½ OVER

Dodgers 90 UNDER

Giants 86 OVER

Marlins 64½ UNDER

Mets 74 OVER

Nationals 90 OVER

Padres 74½ OVER

Phillies 81½ OVER

Pirates 79 OVER

Reds 88½ OVER

Rockies 71½ UNDER

Thoughts:

Disclaimer: Yes, I know, that's a ton of "overs," but as commenter Stephen Brownell noted on Grant Brisbee's o/u post for SBNation, this particular sports book is only expecting an average of 80.1 wins, meaning leaning slightly towards more overs could be a good strategy.

San Francisco mostly stood pat, overpaying for a career year from Angel Pagan (who I like, but four years was one too many) and re-upping Marco Scutaro, hoping for a repeat of his bonkers postseason.  Tim Lincecum can't be this bad again (a monstrous increase in his HR/FB ratio should come down) and if Buster Posey remains healthy, there's no reason to expect less than 88 wins. The Dodgers spent the GNP of Colombia on Zack Greinke, thoroughly average reliever Brandon League, and a relative unknown quantity in Korean pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu. Combined with the blockbuster deal with the Red Sox last summer and absolutely no budget constraints, expectations are sky-high for the Bums, and in true Dodger fashion, they will not meet said expectations. As for Arizona, I'm not in love with the Cody Ross/Jason Kubel outfield combo, but Adam Eaton could have a huge year, and the signing of Brandon McCarthy will prove to be one of the better offseason bargains.

Outside of the Reds, the NL central is not going to be very good this year. The Cards will be leaning heavily on young pitching and the Brewers and Cubs are not appreciably better. I do, however, think the Pirates will go over. By one win.

The Nats will continue to be the powerhouse of the East (and the NL as a whole) thanks to a full year from Stephen Strasbourg (we hope) and the rest of their dominant rotation. Bryce Harper should continue to progress, and Jayson Werth, while overpaid, will play a big role if he can stay on the field. Atlanta is the most interesting team, in my eyes. Pairing the Upton brothers with Jason Heyward should make for a superior defensive outfield, with gobs of offensive potential.

Your thoughts?

[growlbert-blog]

2013 AL Over/Unders or: Why I Should Never Dispense Gambling Advise

Courtesy the Atlantis Casino Resort, the first baseball win total over/unders of the 2013 season are out. Amateur gamblers, now is your time to shine!*

*generic gambling disclaimer here

I made picks on the 2012 over/under totals as well, and...uh...I can't get much worse; it's hard to get 17 wrong on consecutive years, right?

Right?

There were certainly some picks to be proud of; I was bullish on the Nats over (83.5 with that insane pitching staff) and was swayed by the prescient Jonah Keri on the Detroit Tigers under (who somehow under-achieved, despite making the World Series; see below).

Then again, I was dumb enough to think Colorado was going to be 1A in the NL West to the Giants' 1. So keep that in mind when you're making fun of me 8 months from now.

I'm breaking this up into two posts, so here is the American League:

Angels 89½   OVER

Yankees 86½   UNDER

Blue Jays 86½   OVER

White Sox 80½   UNDER

Red Sox 79½   UNDER

Indians 77½   OVER

Orioles 76½   OVER

Mariners 76½   OVER

Twins 64½   UNDER

Astros 59½   UNDER

Tigers 90   OVER

Rangers 87      UNDER

Rays 86   OVER

Athletics 83   OVER

Royals 79      UNDER

Some notes and explanations:

Regarding my "Underachieving Tigers" sentiment: This is a team that won all of 88 games while having the MVP* (*Trout deserved it and nobody can convince me otherwise) the best pitcher on the planet, and one of the deepest rotations (especially after picking up Anibal Sanchez) while playing in a division that featured 3 teams that lost 90 games! That said, this year should see enough improved pitching, with a full year of Sanchez and the continued progression of Doug Fister, to clear the 90 win plateau.

The AL East will have a nice little shake-up this year; Toronto made the biggest waves, and just like Miami last year, I'm all-in. Tampa will be hot on their heels, Boston will be predictably bad, and the Yankees are old, achy, and fiscally tapped out (a phrase I never thought I'd write about the Yanks.) Tampa will be solid, as ever, and while the Orioles absolutely will regress, I don't see a 17-win dip in store; they'll finish around .500.

In the AL West, the Angels should be the class of the division, and will remain as such so long as Mike Trout wears their uniform. I'm not bullish on the long-term implications on Josh Hamilton's deal, but he should have one or two more years of elite offense in him.  The A's will regress some, but they're certainly at least a .500 team. Houston will continue to be bad and not worth our time, though the Mariners will be thrilled to have them in the West. If Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero can make some strides forward at the dish and Kendrys Morales can stay healthy, the M's could sniff .500. I'm not sure the Rangers can keep up with the Angels, but I've got them just under at about 85-86 wins.

Check out the NL O/U's a little later on!

[whitelaws]

[bonniegrrl]

Is there anything you wouldn’t do for your family?

can’t wait! 

[growlbert-blog]

"It's so much easier to see the world in black and white. Gray...I don't know what to do with gray."

[growlbert-blog]

Baseball Nirvana for This Guy

So the Giants won the World Series again (source).  I thought nothing was going to top 2010, but, in the words of Tim Duncan, "It never gets old."  I'll freely admit I gave up on them during both the NLDS and the NLCS.  I just wanted them to not get swept in Cincy, and they were kind enough to oblige.

And losing to the Cardinals...well, they're powered by some bullshit voodoo anyway.  No shame in that.

But this Tigers team was different.  A majority of the experts picked them to crush the Giants, citing Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, and a great starting rotation, led by the Best Pitcher Alive™ Justin Verlander and noted Giants-Killer Anibal Sanchez (with and OPS-against of .490 in 5 starts.  Only team he's dominated more?  The Royals, with an OPS-against of .383, but only in one start.)  Tigers in 5, right?

Which sounds an awful lot like 2010 with the Rangers.  Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton, and (to a lesser extent) Vlad Guerrero, were supposed to maul the Giants' pitching staff, while Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson were going to silence their bats.  Rangers in 5, right?

2010 World Series Stats for Cruz, Hamilton, and Guerrero:

Cruz: 200/200/450 1 HR 5K/0BB

Hamilton: 100/143/250 1 HR 3K/1BB

Guerrero: 071/125/071 0 HR 5K/1BB

Guerrero's line includes one of the worst swinging strikes I've ever seen.  The Giants pitched like they were supposed to, got timely hits, and worked counts (especially in game 1, with Cliff Lee needing 104 pitches to get through 4.2 innings) on their way to a 5 game ass-kicking "upset."

2012 World Series Stats for Cabrera, Fielder, and Verlander:

Cabrera: 231/375/462 1 HR 4K/3BB, popped out in game 3 with the bases loaded

Fielder: 071/133/071 0 HR 4K/0BB 1 HBP (which he clearly leaned into)

Verlander: 4 IP 5 ER 4K/1BB 2HR by Pablo Sandoval, 98 pitches.

During a pre-game phone call with my dad, he declared the formula for beating Verlander was simple: foul off as many pitches as possible and get to the bullpen ASAP.  Per Buster Olney, via Jonah Keri, 17 of the first 59 pitches Verlander threw were fouled off.  In the third inning alone, Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro saw 16 pitches, leading to a 38 pitch inning.

Of course, getting into the 'pen was ultimately moot, since Barry Zito only allowed one run.

After the game 2 performance by Madison Bumgarner (which, if it were the regular season, would have been a complete-game shutout) it was evident that if Fielder and Cabrera could be contained, there was nobody in the Tigers lineup that could cause any damage.  All the Giants needed were a couple of runs per night.

After Prince Fielder grounded into an inning-ending double play in the first inning of game 3, I got another phone call from my dad:

"It's over, we're gonna sweep these guys."

As much as I didn't want to believe him, for the sake of karma, he was right.  Detroit had nothing for the Giants, and it was clear as day where all the prognosticators went wrong: Detroit won only 88 games in the worst division in baseball.  Had they been in any other division in the AL, they would have finished no better than third and missed the playoffs.  They would have tied St Louis for the second wild card in the NL.  This was clearly a flawed team that beat up on terrible competition (including the Yankees in the ALCS, who already couldn't hit and were even worse off after losing The Captain in game 1) and had no business being heavily favored in a long series.  Toss in the second-worst defense in baseball trying to beat a team of contact hitters and you have the formula for an "upset."

But hey, if being overlooked means the Giants win again in 2013, sign me up.

[growlbert-blog]

I'ma Climb This Next Week

McClellan Butte.  3600' feet up, 10 mile round trip.  Hope I can make it.

[sorryeveryone]

eatin’ good in the self-aware neighborhood 

[growlbert-blog]

This Man is a Professional

Aubrey Huff is awesome.  Gif by @gidget

[growlbert-blog]

Rejection Notice the Latest

Cons:

I'll be down in the dumps for the next couple of days.

I'm still not making a paycheck.

(Former Employer-Bucks) almost looks like a good option again.

I'm sure I looked like a red-eyed mess when the plumber got here.

Also, we had to get a plumber to fix our bathtub.

Going to have to tell my family that no, I didn't get this job, and no, I'm not sure why.

Pros:

Legit excuse to mainline bourbon for the rest of the day.

It takes all of two minutes to realize this *still* might be better than my old gig.

So yeah.  Every time I get a "Thanks, but no thanks" I feel even sillier for thinking I'd have a quick turnaround.  Positivity is nice, but I'd go for a little nepotism right about now.