#overunders

[karibikes]

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[mattcabb82]

Beautiful, fasted, easy 82mins in #PostFalls #Idaho swiftly followed by #Homemade #DutchOven #PulledPork on #Bagel and #Avocado gearing up for tomorrow’s #OverUnders hopefully I can push through the pain of this tweaked #Hamstring the #beardedrunningtrucker knows what’s #Driving him, do you know what’s driving you? #Running #MarathonTraining #TruckFit #TruckersWhoRun #FastedCardio (at North Idaho Centennial Trail)

[growlbert-blog]

2013 NL Over/Unders: Homerism at its Finest

The AL is done, locked, loaded, and easily 35% correct. Now it's time for the NL, about which I cannot remain wholly objective, so long as there are Giants.

Without further ado, here we go:

Braves 86 OVER

Brewers 79½ UNDER

Cardinals 85½ UNDER

Cubs 72 UNDER

D’Backs 81½ OVER

Dodgers 90 UNDER

Giants 86 OVER

Marlins 64½ UNDER

Mets 74 OVER

Nationals 90 OVER

Padres 74½ OVER

Phillies 81½ OVER

Pirates 79 OVER

Reds 88½ OVER

Rockies 71½ UNDER

Thoughts:

Disclaimer: Yes, I know, that's a ton of "overs," but as commenter Stephen Brownell noted on Grant Brisbee's o/u post for SBNation, this particular sports book is only expecting an average of 80.1 wins, meaning leaning slightly towards more overs could be a good strategy.

San Francisco mostly stood pat, overpaying for a career year from Angel Pagan (who I like, but four years was one too many) and re-upping Marco Scutaro, hoping for a repeat of his bonkers postseason.  Tim Lincecum can't be this bad again (a monstrous increase in his HR/FB ratio should come down) and if Buster Posey remains healthy, there's no reason to expect less than 88 wins. The Dodgers spent the GNP of Colombia on Zack Greinke, thoroughly average reliever Brandon League, and a relative unknown quantity in Korean pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu. Combined with the blockbuster deal with the Red Sox last summer and absolutely no budget constraints, expectations are sky-high for the Bums, and in true Dodger fashion, they will not meet said expectations. As for Arizona, I'm not in love with the Cody Ross/Jason Kubel outfield combo, but Adam Eaton could have a huge year, and the signing of Brandon McCarthy will prove to be one of the better offseason bargains.

Outside of the Reds, the NL central is not going to be very good this year. The Cards will be leaning heavily on young pitching and the Brewers and Cubs are not appreciably better. I do, however, think the Pirates will go over. By one win.

The Nats will continue to be the powerhouse of the East (and the NL as a whole) thanks to a full year from Stephen Strasbourg (we hope) and the rest of their dominant rotation. Bryce Harper should continue to progress, and Jayson Werth, while overpaid, will play a big role if he can stay on the field. Atlanta is the most interesting team, in my eyes. Pairing the Upton brothers with Jason Heyward should make for a superior defensive outfield, with gobs of offensive potential.

Your thoughts?

[growlbert-blog]

2013 AL Over/Unders or: Why I Should Never Dispense Gambling Advise

Courtesy the Atlantis Casino Resort, the first baseball win total over/unders of the 2013 season are out. Amateur gamblers, now is your time to shine!*

*generic gambling disclaimer here

I made picks on the 2012 over/under totals as well, and...uh...I can't get much worse; it's hard to get 17 wrong on consecutive years, right?

Right?

There were certainly some picks to be proud of; I was bullish on the Nats over (83.5 with that insane pitching staff) and was swayed by the prescient Jonah Keri on the Detroit Tigers under (who somehow under-achieved, despite making the World Series; see below).

Then again, I was dumb enough to think Colorado was going to be 1A in the NL West to the Giants' 1. So keep that in mind when you're making fun of me 8 months from now.

I'm breaking this up into two posts, so here is the American League:

Angels 89½   OVER

Yankees 86½   UNDER

Blue Jays 86½   OVER

White Sox 80½   UNDER

Red Sox 79½   UNDER

Indians 77½   OVER

Orioles 76½   OVER

Mariners 76½   OVER

Twins 64½   UNDER

Astros 59½   UNDER

Tigers 90   OVER

Rangers 87      UNDER

Rays 86   OVER

Athletics 83   OVER

Royals 79      UNDER

Some notes and explanations:

Regarding my "Underachieving Tigers" sentiment: This is a team that won all of 88 games while having the MVP* (*Trout deserved it and nobody can convince me otherwise) the best pitcher on the planet, and one of the deepest rotations (especially after picking up Anibal Sanchez) while playing in a division that featured 3 teams that lost 90 games! That said, this year should see enough improved pitching, with a full year of Sanchez and the continued progression of Doug Fister, to clear the 90 win plateau.

The AL East will have a nice little shake-up this year; Toronto made the biggest waves, and just like Miami last year, I'm all-in. Tampa will be hot on their heels, Boston will be predictably bad, and the Yankees are old, achy, and fiscally tapped out (a phrase I never thought I'd write about the Yanks.) Tampa will be solid, as ever, and while the Orioles absolutely will regress, I don't see a 17-win dip in store; they'll finish around .500.

In the AL West, the Angels should be the class of the division, and will remain as such so long as Mike Trout wears their uniform. I'm not bullish on the long-term implications on Josh Hamilton's deal, but he should have one or two more years of elite offense in him.  The A's will regress some, but they're certainly at least a .500 team. Houston will continue to be bad and not worth our time, though the Mariners will be thrilled to have them in the West. If Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero can make some strides forward at the dish and Kendrys Morales can stay healthy, the M's could sniff .500. I'm not sure the Rangers can keep up with the Angels, but I've got them just under at about 85-86 wins.

Check out the NL O/U's a little later on!