i generally agree/think the theories of nate moving to a rival-rupert-related club make sense but isn't it weird that he would just leave with what nick said about him being the club being his life and obsessively wanting it to win? i used to think he'd do something awful thinking it's for the best for the club but after the last episode it doesn't seem like it. maybe that's part of the "corruption" (i don't what else to call it like. the opposite of redemption) arc that his motivation stops being the club and became entirely about recognition?
I agree: that's always struck me when the Nate storylines have been predicted here. Nate clearly wants recognition, but he also loves Richmond, and everything he's done can be seen as (in a painful, misguided way) being for Richmond. It makes sense because we specifically heard the commentators discussing Nate moving to a new club, and we know how much this show loves its foreshadowing, but I still think something big would have to happen to spur Nate into doing that.
This is also why I roll my eyes at some of the suggestions being touted - such as 'Nate outs Colin as gay/shares Sam's relationship with Rebecca/invites Rupert to the funeral just for the evulz' because - aside from my ongoing thoughts about the only main POC character immediately having the worst thought of them when other white 'villainous' characters were given much more generous treatment by fandom, which is a whole separate issue - the motivation behind that doesn't ring true. None of these crappy actions would in any way benefit the club, and even in his downward spiral, so much of Nate's bad actions are still to support the club. (I banged on about this a bit more here.)
However: someone pointed out that Nate has a 'reason' to like Rupert, in his own blind way, because under Rupert's management Richmond was at least an average Premier league team, and now they're in the Championship; which I think it a good point. And given that Rupert is an emotional abuser and good at putting on the charm, I can certainly see him charming Nate into thinking he can indeed be Great over at a new club (which I would enjoy just because that would lead to future Nate/Rebecca scenes bonding over willingly climbing Rupert's ivory tower when they should have known better).
So yeah, I can definitely imagine his downward spiral being linked to the desire to be recognised rather than for his team to win, as you said - and it sounds like the sort of brutal thematic fuckery this writers' team would play on us too. I think from where we stand it would definitely need one more push to get Nate in that place though: I can imagine Nate being the one to storm off in a temper and leave (possibly blurting something out about Ted's supposed bad management to someone in the press in the process) because he's frustrated with the way things are going, or because Ted does another 'it is what it is, we'll get a win eventually' thing, which must be frustrating for the other coaches on his team.
