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[igor67]

Израиль 2026: Жизнь на грани истории

Есть в нас, израильтянах, что то глубоко и почти абсурдно уникальное: проверять курс доллара, пока ждешь сирену отбоя воздушной тревоги. Март 2026 года: шекель упрямо держится на отметке 3.10, экспорт технологий бьет рекорды, а в это же время на Петах-Тикву и Рамат-Ган падают иранские кассетные ракеты. Мы в самом разгаре операции «Эпическая ярость» прямой полномасштабной войны с Ираном. Но кафе открыты, а политики вовсю делят кресла перед выборами. Это наша «новая нормальность», хотя слово «нормальность» здесь звучит как издевательство над страной, которая умудряется балансировать между апокалипсисом и выходом на IPO.

Как мы здесь оказались?

Тень «прокси-войны», которая тянулась годами, окончательно рассеялась. Иран вышел из сумрака еще в 2024-м, а после «Двенадцатидневной войны» 2025-го, когда мы ударили по ядерным объектам в Фордо и Натанзе, жребий был брошен. Сейчас история пишется в прямом эфире: ликвидация Хаменеи, уничтожение иранского министра разведки и командующего «Басидж» ударами Израиля и США. При этом внутри страны мы тащим за собой багаж из пяти изнурительных выборов. Правительство Нетаньяху, побитое протестами против судебной реформы и травмой 7 октября, привело нас к этой точке: внешняя ярость при внутренней хрупкости.

Внутренняя кухня: бюджет и призыв

Кто-то думает, что экзистенциальная война заставит политиков замолчать? Ошибаетесь. Грызня в Кнессете порой громче, чем разрывы «Железного купола». На кону бюджет с дефицитом в 5.1%, а камнем преткновения стали 5 миллиардов шекелей на «коалиционные нужды» читай, на финансирование религиозных институтов. Обсуждать стипендии ешиботникам, пока оплачиваются вылеты F-35 ирония, которую понимает каждый.

Плюс тикает бомба «харедимного призыва». Верховный суд в 2024-м сказал «хватит» и признал освобождение ультраортодоксов от армии незаконным. Теперь коалиция мечется между решением суда и собственным выживанием. А на фоне этого ускоренная застройка в Иудее и Самарии, которая злит ООН, ЕС и США, называющих это «незаконной аннексией».

Парадоксы общества

Настроение в Израиле это чистый когнитивный диссонанс.

82% поддерживают войну против Ирана.

Но только 61% верит, что режим аятолл реально свалить.

Новая Алия: на фоне дикого всплеска антисемитизма на Западе евреи едут в Израиль. Это сюрреализм: люди бросают спокойную жизнь в Европе и США и едут под кассетные обстрелы, потому что здесь они чувствуют себя в большей безопасности, чем в кампусах университетов Лиги плюща.

Что дальше?

Выборы 2026 года (официально в октябре, но ждем их уже в мае или сентябре) станут главным референдумом военного времени. На арене всё те же и «новые старые»:

Нетаньяху: мастер выживания, позиционирующий себя как единственный, кто может рулить в этот шторм.

Нафтали Беннет: возвращается с фракцией «Беннет 2026», претендуя на центр и правых.

Гади Айзенкот: со своей партией «Яшар» пока остается фаворитом оппозиции.

География безопасности тоже меняется. Мы строим «буферные зоны». В Ливане 10-километровая зона до реки Литани, полностью зачищенная от гражданских. В Газе стратегия «фрагментарного управления»: анклавы под жестким военным контролем.

И финальный аккорд может прозвучать не в Иерусалиме, а в Ормузском проливе. Нефть по $107–$120 за баррель из-за иранской блокады заставила Трампа выставить ультиматум: либо судоходство возобновляется, либо электростанции Ирана стираются с карты.

Итог: Израиль в марте 2026-го это гремучая смесь из предельной концентрации на фронте и беспощадного политического театра дома. Мы воюем за выживание вовне и одновременно спорим о своей душе внутри. Весна будет жаркой.

[igor67]

Israel 2026: Living on the Edge of History

There is something profoundly, almost absurdly Israeli about checking the currency exchange rate while waiting for the all-clear siren. As of March 2026, the Shekel is holding stubbornly at 3.10 to the dollar, and our tech exports are booming. Yet, just down the road, cities like Petah Tikva and Ramat Gan are absorbing the sheer kinetic reality of Iranian cluster missiles, with Tel Aviv’s transit grid occasionally grinding to a halt. We are in the thick of Operation "Epic Fury" a direct, high-intensity war with Iran and yet, the cafes remain open, and the political establishment is gearing up for a high-stakes election year. It is the "new normal," a phrase that feels terribly inadequate for a nation continually walking the tightrope between an apocalypse and an IPO.

To understand the current madness, one must look back at the agonizingly slow death of the so-called "Shadow War". For years, particularly from 2018 to 2024, Israel and Iran played a lethal game of chess in the dark. But shadows eventually dissipate. The 2024 direct Iranian attacks pulled the curtain back, setting the stage for the 2025 "Twelve-Day War". When the nuclear facilities at Fordo and Natanz were struck, the geopolitical die was cast. Now, we are witnessing history unfold in real-time, marked by the elimination of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, followed by the recent US-Israeli strikes that took out the Iranian Minister of Intelligence and the Basij commander. Yet, we arrived at this precipice dragging the baggage of five grueling election cycles since 2018. The government Benjamin Netanyahu cobbled together in 2022, scarred by judicial reform protests and the collective trauma of October 7, 2023, has brought us to this exact, precarious crossroads of external fury and internal fragility.

One might assume that an existential, multi-front war would quiet domestic squabbles. One would be wrong. The internal fireworks in Jerusalem are as loud as the Iron Dome interceptions overhead. Consider the budget brawl: with a March 31st deadline looming and a projected 5.1% deficit, the Knesset is bitterly deadlocked. The contention? Five billion shekels earmarked for "coalition needs" largely funding for religious institutions. The irony of debating yeshiva stipends while financing F-35 sorties is not lost on anyone.

Then there is the ticking time bomb of the Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) draft. After decades of kicking this demographic can down the road, the Supreme Court’s 2024 ruling finally declared the blanket exemptions illegal. The court has said "enough," and the coalition is sweating, trapped between judicial mandates and its own political survival. Add to this the friction over settlements. With accelerated building in places like Ebal and controversial land registrations in Judea and Samaria, Israel is cultivating an "us vs. the world" dynamic, drawing sharp condemnation from the UN, the EU, and the US, who frame the moves as illegal annexation.

The pulse of the Israeli public right now is a fascinating study in cognitive dissonance. There is overwhelming unity regarding the military objective: 82% of Israelis support the campaign against Iran. Yet, we are a famously pragmatic people; only 61% actually believe the Ayatollah regime can be permanently toppled. Meanwhile, a profound demographic paradox is unfolding. Driven by a staggering, frightening surge of global antisemitism, a new wave of Aliyah (return) is bringing Western Jews to Israel. There is a deep, dark irony here: people are packing up their lives and moving to a country under daily cluster missile fire because they feel safer here than on the university campuses of Europe and North America. Overseeing this surreal landscape is the "Bibi Factor". Netanyahu continues to position himself as the lone statesman capable of navigating this apocalyptic storm. The lingering question is whether the public agrees, or if the country is finally ready for a change.

Looking ahead, the crystal ball shows a Middle East on the verge of a total rewrite. The 2026 election officially slated for October 27 but widely expected to be triggered early, perhaps by May or September will be the ultimate wartime referendum. The heavyweights are already circling: Netanyahu, the veteran survivor; Naftali Bennett, returning with his "Bennett 2026" faction to claim the center-right; and Gadi Eisenkot, whose "Yashar" party currently makes him the opposition favorite.

But politics aside, the very geography of Israeli security is shifting. We are witnessing the birth of the "Buffer Zone" doctrine. The illusions of civilian management in hostile neighboring territories have been abandoned. In Lebanon, this means the IDF is carving out a 10km zone up to the Litani River, strictly devoid of civilians. In Gaza, it’s a strategy of "fragmented management" breaking the territory into enclaves under perpetual, hardline military control.

Ultimately, the fate of the region might not be decided in Jerusalem or Tehran, but at the Strait of Hormuz. With global oil prices skyrocketing to anywhere between $107 and $120 a barrel due to Iranian blockades, Donald Trump’s administration has delivered a blunt ultimatum: restore shipping, or Iran's power plants will be wiped off the map. Will the next few weeks redefine the geopolitical order for the next century? It seems entirely plausible.

Israel in March 2026 is an intoxicating, terrifying blend of intense military focus and unrelenting political theater. We are a nation fighting an existential war abroad while relentlessly debating our very soul at home. Keep your eyes on the news cycle whether you are parsing through Haaretz, The Times of Israel, Ynet, or Vesty because it is going to be a wild spring.

[igor67]

The Price of Life: Europe’s Norm vs. the Cult of Death

The Price of Life: Europe’s Norm vs. the Cult of Death

Thesis. In Europe’s legal-moral universe, human life is inviolable. Salafi-jihadist terrorism and Russian state militarism (incl. affiliated mercenary/proxy structures) repeatedly instrumentalize death—through deliberate attacks on civilians, deportations, torture, and cultural spoliation. This is a matter of record, not rhetoric. ohchr.org+2hrw.org+2

1) Radical Islamist violence: terror by design

Yazidi Genocide (2014–): The UN Commission of Inquiry concluded ISIS committed genocide—killings, enslavement, sexual violence, forced conversions. A decade on, UN bodies still call for justice. ohchr.org+1

Europe’s mass attacks: Paris, Nov. 2015 (130+ murdered), claimed by ISIS; among the deadliest EU attacks in the modern era. Вікіпедія

Nice (2016): truck attack on Bastille Day; dozens killed. Vanity Fair

Boko Haram (2014–): the Chibok kidnappings; a decade later, many girls remain in captivity. Amnesty International

7 Oct 2023 (southern Israel): human rights investigators documented summary killings of civilians and hostage-taking by Hamas-led groups; elements rise to crimes against humanity. hrw.org

Bottom line: where an ideology sanctifies death and dehumanizes the “other,” mass crimes against civilians follow.

2) Russian state militarism: from the Gulag to Bucha

Historical lineage: Stalin’s engineered Holodomor (1932–33) killed millions in Ukraine; the Gulag system caused mass mortality. Encyclopedia Britannica+2Encyclopedia Britannica+2

Chechnya (1999–2009): enforced disappearances, torture, and impunity are amply documented; lack of justice fuels recurrence. Refworld+1

Syria: hospital bombings and strikes on aid convoys during the Aleppo campaign constitute war crimes. hrw.org+2Amnesty International+2

MH17 (2014): Dutch court convicted three defendants for murdering 298 passengers; investigators found Russia exercised control over separatist forces. prosecutionservice.nl+1

Full-scale invasion of Ukraine (since 2022):

Bucha: executions, torture, sexual violence; extensive investigations debunked Russian denials. Вікіпедія

Mariupol Drama Theatre (16 Mar 2022): an airstrike on a clearly marked civilian shelter (“children”)—a war crime. Amnesty International+2Amnesty International+2

Deportation of children: ICC arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin for unlawful deportation/transfer of Ukrainian children. icc-cpi.int+1

Africa (Mali): Malian troops with Wagner forces implicated in the Moura massacre of hundreds of civilians (Mar 2022). hrw.org+2Вікіпедія+2

Bottom line: a state tradition of coercive violence—domestic and expeditionary—produces systematic crimes against civilians.

Why Europe hesitates

Legal caution: politicians shy from genocide/terrorism labels pending judicial findings.

Path-dependence: decades of economic comfort dulled risk perception.

Category error: confusing rights-based tolerance with tolerance of violent ideologies.

What to do

Use precise legal terms—genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes—grounded in UN/ICC findings. ohchr.org+1

Sanctions & courts: back the ICC, universal jurisdiction cases, asset freezes of perpetrators. icc-cpi.int

Cultural security: prosecute systematic looting/erasure of heritage as war crimes. Le Monde.fr

[igor67]

Russia — the motherland of executioners and those who revere them

“The Russian man has no sense of personal dignity. He is a slave by nature.” These are not my words — they belong to Leo Tolstoy. And with every passing year, I feel more deeply how precisely he captured the essence. In Russia, tyranny doesn’t just happen — it is born, nurtured, fed, and carried to term as if it were the nation's own flesh. Putin is not an accident, not a deviation — he is a logical outcome. He is not a disease, but a symptom of a deep, centuries-old pathology in the collective mind.

In a country where greatness is valued more than freedom, where “as long as it’s not worse” replaces the desire for something better, Putins are born. In a land that for centuries worshipped the tsar, endured the brute, denounced the neighbor, and lived by the motto “it’s none of my business,” how can we expect anything else? From Peter to Stalin, from Stalin to Putin — it’s the same old script: mass submission to power, fear of freedom, and a culture that treats betrayal as a virtue.

The Kremlin is not just a dictator’s palace — it is a mirror reflecting the face of the nation. Distorted, yes — but familiar. Who fills the ranks of propagandists, who reports on colleagues, who jails people for posts and donations? Not just the regime. It’s thousands upon thousands of “ordinary people” with petty eyes and mutterings about “stability.” This is a people who do not want freedom — because freedom means responsibility. Submission is easier.

This is not a captured country. It is a country that voluntarily lies down under the boot. A people who have the chance to rise up, but choose to stay silent — or howl along. And if Putin disappears tomorrow — believe me, they will summon another. Even more cruel. Because the slave wants the whip.

“Russia cannot exist without a master,” they say — and they will keep saying it. But maybe it’s time to admit: Russia does not want to exist without a master. In this light, Putin is not an usurper. He is a popular choice. Not distorted — but authentic.

It hurts me. Not because of Putin — but because of the millions who gave birth to him inside themselves. I do not believe in revolution — I believe in evolution. But for that to begin, we must stop excusing the people. We must admit: the problem is not only at the top — it is within. And only those who refuse to be part of this sickness can become the beginning of healing. The rest are slaves. As Tolstoy said. As life proves. As the truth demands.

[igor67]

Bazilika,Budapest

[igor67]

Israeli Sovereignty: A 105-Year-Old Legal Foundation

Israeli sovereignty over Gaza, Judea, and Samaria does not need to be "extended" — it was declared with the founding of the State of Israel in 1948. Its legal foundation goes back over a century, based on binding international agreements.

On April 26, 1920, at the San Remo Conference, the victorious powers of World War I awarded Britain the Mandate for Palestine. This mandate was based on the Balfour Declaration of 1917, which had by then been ratified and incorporated into international law.

Britain was charged with the duty to establish a national home for the Jewish people in Palestine.

At that time, "Palestine" referred to the territory both west and east of the Jordan River. There was no mention of an Arab Palestinian state; "Palestine" was synonymous with the Jewish national homeland.

In 1921, Britain, pursuing its political interests, administratively separated Transjordan (today’s Jordan) from the area designated for the Jewish national home — a move that violated the spirit of the Mandate. Simultaneously, Britain allowed massive Arab immigration into Palestine, altering its demographic makeup.

However, the international legal foundation remained unchanged.

The decisions of San Remo and the Mandate of the League of Nations firmly established the exclusive right of the Jewish people to self-determination in Eretz Israel.

With the Declaration of Independence in 1948, Israel affirmed its sovereignty over part of this territory. Judea, Samaria, and Gaza were occupied illegally by Jordan and Egypt until 1967, when Israel restored control over them following the Six-Day War.

The Jewish people's right to Eretz Israel has never been legally revoked.

The issue today is not about creating new sovereignty, but about implementing existing and recognized rights.

105 years after San Remo, the principle remains the same: Israel has the full right to exercise sovereignty over all of Eretz Israel.

[igor67]

Russia is a terrorist state. Its empire of aggression and oppression must collapse for the sake of global peace and justice.

[igor67]

[igor67]

Ukraine’s experience shows:

Give up nuclear weapons under noble pretexts or reject nuclear status — and soon you'll give away your territory to some, your independence to others, and to the most shameless and ruthless — all your natural resources.

I’m glad you’re here.If you like my posts, hit that Follow button and join me on this journey through history, borders, and meaning.

[igor67]

“He can choose peace — or lose the whole country.”

That’s what Trump said about Zelensky and Ukraine on April 23, 2025.

In 1938, Chamberlain said almost the same thing about Czechoslovakia.

Hitler was “given a chance for peace.”

It ended in a world war.

History doesn’t repeat. It warns.

When you hand over Crimea today — the Kremlin will demand Kyiv, Tallinn, Warsaw tomorrow.

[igor67]

The Russian Liberal Is Still an Imperialist — and the “Ordinary Russian” Is His Silent Partner

There’s something particularly insidious about the way many Russians — even those who loudly condemned Putin and the war — continue to live mentally and morally inside the empire.

They oppose the regime, yes. But they do not oppose Russia — the state that bombs cities, props up terror regimes, and threatens global order.

In their hearts, Russia remains “a great nation” that must not be “humiliated,” “broken up,” or “punished.”

Nowhere is this more evident than in the rhetoric of so-called Russian liberals.

They speak the language of democracy. But when faced with the idea of Russia’s military defeat, territorial collapse, or legal reckoning — they panic.

They cry:

“What about ordinary people?”

“We must not demonize everyone.”

“Collective guilt is dangerous.”

“We need change, not revenge.”

This is not the voice of resistance. It is the voice of imperial denial.

They don’t want Russia to lose — they want Russia to redeem itself without consequences.

But liberals are not alone.

Look at the “ordinary Russians” in Israel, Germany, the U.S. — those who emigrated, built new lives, even fled the war.

Scratch the surface and you’ll hear the same narratives:

“We’re not responsible.”

“Politics is complicated.”

“Ukraine isn’t innocent either.”

“Don’t compare Russia to Hamas — whataboutism.”

They are silent when Russia funds Hezbollah.

They look away when missiles are launched from Iran with Russian support.

They say nothing when Ukrainian cities are flattened.

Why? Because deep down, they still feel with Russia — not with the victims.

They want the war to “end,” yes — but not through justice, only through amnesia.

This is not about left or right. It’s not about liberal or conservative.

It’s about identity. And for too many Russians, even abroad, that identity still rests on the illusion of “greatness.”

They fear the collapse of Russia — because it would mean the collapse of themselves.

They don’t want peace.

They want a reason to be proud again.

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👉 Follow Borderlines for essays on war, identity, and the myths we refuse to bury.

[igor67]

Русские уже нос свой высовывают из под медвежьей шкуры.Как Израиль до сих пор не понял,что русская пятая колонна это всегда управляемая из москвы шушера.Так было и так есть.Все эти "хорошие русские" которым так жалко "мальчиков" которых злой путин посылает убивать каких то там украинцев,вот этих "мальчиков" конечно жалко.

[igor67]

I believe that European countries need to soberly assess not only the humanitarian aspects but also the long-term social consequences of accepting large numbers of migrants, including those who arrive as refugees. If due attention is not paid to issues of integration, cultural differences, and potential friction with the local population, this could create serious internal challenges for European societies in the long run.

[igor67]

A Freeze, Not a Peace: The U.S. Proposal for Ukraine

According to several credible reports, including a leak to Bloomberg, the United States has quietly presented its European partners with a peace proposal aimed at halting Russia’s war against Ukraine.

To be precise, what is being proposed is not a resolution — but rather a freeze. No official statements have been made, yet the contours of the plan reflect discussions that have been ongoing, both publicly and behind the scenes, for months.

At the heart of the U.S. proposal is a ceasefire, followed by a full suspension of hostilities — along the current line of contact. In effect, the existing front line would become a de facto boundary, though not an internationally recognized one. The occupied territories would remain legally recognized as part of Ukraine, but effectively controlled by Russia.

As an incentive to Moscow, the U.S. is reportedly proposing a gradual easing of sanctions. However, any meaningful shift on that front would require cooperation from the European Union — which has imposed the most damaging restrictions on Russia’s economy.

In return, Ukraine would not be expected to launch an immediate counteroffensive to liberate its territories. Importantly, no reciprocal concessions would be required from Russia — no withdrawals, no demilitarization, no change in posture. Nor are any guarantees or incentives for third parties such as China included in this draft.

This is, for now, only a framework — not a binding agreement. Even within the West, there is no consensus beyond the circle of initiators. Europe remains undecided, though a year ago it expressed no fundamental objections. Ukraine rejected parts of the draft, particularly regarding sanctions relief in exchange for territorial concessions. Russia, on the other hand, categorically refused the entire premise.

Moscow insists on legal recognition of the occupied territories — particularly Crimea. Moreover, the Kremlin does not limit its demands to the current front line. It seeks recognition of all territories annexed via its own constitution, including four regions in full. This is completely unacceptable to Ukraine, the EU, and even to Washington.

In theory, the Kremlin may soften its position — but it will almost certainly demand reciprocal concessions. Last year, talks collapsed on precisely this point.

The question now is: what’s changed in 2025?

The war has, the world has — and perhaps the calculations have too.

But for now, these remain only rough contours.

The real negotiations have yet to begin.

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👉 Subscribe to Borderlines to follow future analysis and insight.

[igor67]

🟡 Запустил свой англоязычный блог Borderlines

✍️ Пишу о войне, политике, идентичности и жизни между двумя родинами — Украиной и Израилем.

Первый пост уже опубликован:

🔗 igorplakushchenko.substack.com

Буду рад, если подпишетесь, прочитаете, напишите пару слов.

[igor67]

Всегда знал,что нахождение на верхних этажах власти не всегда зависит от умственных способностей этого человека.

[igor67]

Trump Is Back — And Still Holding Israel Back from Attacking Iran

In one of his recent statements, Donald Trump indirectly confirmed what has long been said behind closed doors: he was the one who stopped Israel from striking Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

No surprise here. Trump talks a lot — about “maximum pressure,” threats, and “the big deal” — but when it came time to give Israel the green light to act, he didn’t. And that moment could have changed the course of events. Iran grew stronger, its nuclear program advanced, and the region became even more volatile.

His current position is simply a continuation of the same approach: loud words, restrained actions when real decisions are needed. Israel should take note — relying on Washington may once again turn into a “not now.”

Plenty of words. As always — little substance.

В одном из своих последних заявлений Трамп косвенно подтвердил то, о чём давно говорили за закрытыми дверями: именно он остановил Израиль от удара по ядерной инфраструктуре Ирана.

Неудивительно. Трамп много говорит — про "максимальное давление", про угрозы и "большую сделку", но по факту Израилю не дали зелёный свет тогда, когда это могло реально изменить ход событий. Иран укрепился, ядерная программа продвинулась, а регион стал ещё более взрывоопасным.

Сегодняшняя его позиция — это продолжение той же линии: громкие слова, но сдержанность, когда дело доходит до настоящих решений. Израилю стоит сделать выводы: опора на Вашингтон может обернуться очередным «подождите».

Слов много. Толку — как всегда, мало.