The Weird Psychology Behind the NBA Finals: Who's the Real Favorite?
The NBA Finals begin tonight, and Las Vegas considers the San Antonio Spurs the favorite (-140) to win the series against the Miami Heat. What that means is if you bet $100 on the Spurs, you’d only win about $71 on the wager if they win the title.
Vegas’ labeling of the Spurs as the favorite seems somewhat crazy when you consider the superstar-loaded Heat are back-to-back champs, and they beat the Spurs in last year’s finals.
But the odds reflect how incredibly locked in the Spurs have been this postseason, and because they own home-court advantage.
NBA fans don’t necessarily agree, though there’s an interesting twist according to our Staance Insights:
Only 41% of NBA fans agree the Spurs are the favorites.
but … 55% of NBA fans believe the Spurs will beat the Heat.
While these results may seem contradictory, they’re not. People truly believe the Heat should be recognized as the favorites while still believing the Spurs will win.
Miami is seen as the perennial favorite, a LeBron-led team loaded with talent. That scenario makes the Spurs an “underdog,” and people would prefer to root for the underdog. Â
People want the story line to be “The gritty Spurs take down the big, bad powerhouse Heat.”
But that’s not the reality. The truth is that most people believe the Spurs will win the series, which reflects what the oddsmakers are telling us. They just don’t want to admit it.
It’s interesting stuff about the psychology of the NBA fan.
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