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Helena Minginowicz: Heart Shaped Book for Myself (2024)
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Foods costs are expected to rise at some point in the coming months once the shipping industry fully runs out of fuel reserves and wholesalers run out of existing stocks, causing the full inflationary impact of the Iran War to emerge. Shortly after that, on October 1, a new set of SNAP food aid cuts from Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 will automatically go into effect. I think there is a real chance that hunger will emerge as a political issue by the end of this year (and if it doesn’t, then it should.)
One explanation I’ve heard for why the stock market has been so nonchalant about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is that they are fully convinced it will end before any of that happens. Someone (I think it was JP Morgan?) said in a recent release that the assumptions for their short-term inflation expectations are all based on the idea that Trump will pull back from the war at the exact right second and miraculously reopen the Strait in full. In their mind, Trump dragging the war out any longer than that would be committing economic suicide right before an election, and Trump as a rational actor would not allow that to happen. Buddy, do I got some news for you