Bill Mill @llimllib - Tumblr Blog

Playing cornhole at Amanda's wedding

In Western culture, virtually everything is understood through the process of storytelling, often to the detriment of reality. When we recount history, we tend to use the life experience of one person — the “journey” of a particular “hero,” in the lingo of the mythologist Joseph Campbell — as a prism for understanding everything else. That inclination works to the Beatles’ communal detriment. But it buoys two other figures: Elvis Presley and Bob Dylan.

Which Rock Star Will Historians of the Future Remember? - Chuck Klosterman

I can’t even really believe that a rising tide will lift all boats anymore. Not only has GDP uncoupled from median wages over the past forty years, but there seems to be a Red Queen’s Race where every time the GDP goes up the cost of living goes up the same amount. US real GDP has dectupled since 1900, yet a lot of people have no savings and are one paycheck away from the street. In theory, a 1900s poor person who suddenly got 10x his normal salary should be able to save 90% of it, build up a fund for rainy days, and end up in a much better position. In practice, even if the minimum wage in 2100 is $200 2016 dollar an hour, I expect the average 2100 poor person will be one paycheck away from the street. I can’t explain this, I just accept it at this point.

Three Great Articles On Poverty, And Why I Disagree With All Of Them - Scott Alexander

Good hair day

Ultimately the problem is not with p-values but with null-hypothesis significance testing, that parody of falsificationism in which straw-man null hypothesis A is rejected and this is taken as evidence in favor of preferred alternative B

The problems with p-values are not just with p-values: My comments on the recent ASA statement - Andrew Gelman

Roughly speaking, until the Global Financial Crisis, neoliberalism was the only force that mattered. The typical setup in English-speaking countries was alternation between two neoliberal parties corresponding to the two versions of neoliberalism I mentioned above. The hard neoliberal (in the US, the Republicans) relied on the votes of (white Christian) tribalists and made symbolic gestures in their direction, but largely ignored them, particularly if their interests came into conflict with those of big business. The soft neoliberals (in the US, the New Democrats) relied on the willingness of leftists to support them as “the lesser evil”.

The three party system — John Quiggin

via @interfluidity

The outlawing of overt conflict at work and the replacing of it with silence and passive aggression is not a good thing. Sometimes it makes sense not to escalate. Other times it doesn’t.

- An old-school reply to an advertiser’s retro threat - Lucy Kellaway

Superbaby wearing his cape and hanging with his pals

But more and more, I felt like I couldn’t do the work I set out to do. I was participating in a profoundly corrupt criminal justice system. I could not, in good conscience, participate in a system that was so intentionally unfair and racist. So after five years on the job, I quit.

Being a cop showed me just how racist and violent the police are. There’s only one fix. - The Washington Post

Chickenshit Minimalism: the illusion of simplicity backed by megabytes of cruft

The Website Obesity Crisis - Maciej Cegłowski

As far as I can tell, what happens at these companies is that they started by concentrating almost totally on product growth. That’s completely and totally reasonable, because companies are worth approximately zero when they’re founded; they don’t bother with things that protect them from losses, like good ops practices or actually having security, because there’s nothing to lose. The result is a culture where people are hyper-focused on growth and ignore risk. That culture tends to stick even after company has grown to be worth well over a billion dollars, and the companies have something to lose. Anyone who comes into one of these companies from Google, Amazon, or another place with solid ops practices is shocked. Often, they try to fix things, and then leave when they can’t make a dent.

How people come to believe that completely messed up practices are normal - Dan Luu

Prosecutors didn't just accuse Mr. Porter of lying or engaging in a cover-up. They suggested that the department has a "stop snitching" code for its officers just as repulsive as the one on the streets. And the defense attorneys didn't just portray Mr. Porter as an inexperienced cop who was following the lead of experienced officers. They drew a picture of a department where training is cursory and where standards of conduct are routinely ignored — if officers even bother to read them in the first place.

Mistrial for William Porter, clear verdict on the Baltimore Police Department - Baltimore Sun

If we were really not allowed to say anything about [a hypothesis], significance testing would be completely useless, but in fact it is only mostly useless.

Many rules of statistics are wrong - Allen Downey

The point, however, is that we have spent decades churning out correlations and we have no idea whether the findings were polluted by unmeasured genetic factors. That’s frightening, especially since public policies have been built on some of these potentially illusory correlations.

consider an analogy suggested by my colleague Rehana Patel: Suppose you estimate that the median height of people in class C is six feet. You could not meaningfully say that the median height of Mr. Smith is six feet. Only the class has a median height, individuals do not.

Recidivism and single-case probabilities - Allen Downey

[Matt] Frost thinks we should pay the organizations which own underground coal deposits—specifically, the U.S. government—for the right to never mine it. “The U.S. coal deposits represent a potential store of future CO₂ emissions,” Frost told me. “The assumption, the policy assumption, is that they need to be extracted. But what if we just sequester this carbon while it’s still in coal form?”

Climate-Concerned Billionaires Should Buy Coal - Robinson Meyer

It's plain that Bill Gates would never spend $2b buying coal rather than funding a clean-energy research initiative, no matter which were likely to be more effective. It's interesting and instructive to ponder why that is.

Today in Texas, former prosecutor and judge Ken Anderson pled guilty to intentionally failing to disclose evidence in a case that sent an innocent man, Michael Morton, to prison for the murder of his wife. When trying the case as a prosecutor, Anderson possessed evidence that may have cleared Morton, including statements from the crime's only eyewitness that Morton wasn't the culprit. Anderson sat on this evidence, and then watched Morton get convicted. While Morton remained in prison for the next 25 years, Anderson's career flourished, and he eventually became a judge

For the First Time Ever, a Prosecutor Will Go to Jail for Wrongfully Convicting an Innocent Man - Mark Godsey

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