The inflation pipeline just turned uncomfortably hot across multiple fronts—headline CPI at a 12-month high of 3.8%, but more alarmingly, producer prices surging 1.4% monthly with core services inflation jumping 1.2%, suggesting the supply chain is beginning to absorb shocks well beyond just oil prices. The 10-year Treasury yield has repriced to 4.57% in a matter of days, not because of debt doom, but because growth and inflation expectations have shifted materially. This mirrors the spring of 2008 more closely than the current consensus would admit: oil-driven headline prints that historically reverse sharply, but a structural services component that sticks around long enough to matter.
The real tell is in what India just did...doubling gold import duties to 15% and capping duty-free flows while Modi personally asked citizens to stop buying gold for a year. That is not policy theater. That is capital control signaling from the world's largest gold consumer, and it does not happen without reason.
[Macro inflation risks and commodity cycle mechanics]
















