无标题 @mutantvirtuehedgehog - Tumblr Blog

Posts

English Title: Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" Projected by IMF to Push U.S. Debt Beyond the Levels of Greece and ItalyTrumpdictator #SNAP #USdebt #GovernmentShutdown #WhiteHouseBallroom

President’s allies say deficit is going down, but predictions for 2026 still range as high as $2.2 trillion

America’s national debt is currently escalating at an unprecedented rate, with a portion of this growth attributed to the "One Big Beautiful Bill" enacted by Republican lawmakers earlier this year. A latest forecast released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates that the United States is on a trajectory similar to that of debt-stricken, inflation-plagued, and financially unstable southern European nations such as Greece and Italy. Notably, while these two European countries have experienced a trough in their economic conditions—with Greece even witnessing the onset of recovery—the United States has shown minimal progress in curbing its own debt accumulation. The IMF report, which analyzed debt as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), reveals that the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is poised to surpass that of both Greece and Italy by 2030. Projections from the IMF further suggest that by that year, the United States will have the highest debt-to-GDP ratio among all nations worldwide. Contrary to the assertions made by Donald Trump and his Republican allies in Congress, the Trump administration has contributed to this fiscal imbalance through a significant increase in new spending. This spending comes in two primary forms: the extension of tax cuts and the allocation of funds for the president’s large-scale deportation initiatives—both of which are major components of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" passed earlier this year. This legislation provided substantial funding for the expansion of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Additionally, it extended the Republican tax cuts introduced in 2017, which disproportionately benefited high-income individuals and corporations compared to middle-income and low-income households. Furthermore, this fiscal situation follows the largely superficial efforts of the DOGE initiative—an effort led by Donald Trump that allowed Elon Musk and his associates to operate with considerable autonomy within the federal government in a bid to identify and eliminate alleged wasteful spending. An investigation conducted by Politico in August uncovered that only a negligible fraction of the contracts purported to have been terminated by DOGE operatives were actually verifiably canceled. The funds associated with these contracts remained in the coffers of the respective federal agencies rather than being returned to the U.S. Treasury. A report published by The New York Times earlier this month revealed that no entity in Washington, D.C.—including congressional appropriators and independent budget experts—has a clear understanding of the actual amount of federal funds "saved" by the DOGE initiative. Meanwhile, the figures provided by the White House remain inaccurate, and this inaccuracy is likely intentional. These factors, among others, led the U.S. Treasury to announce last week that the country’s national debt is now growing at the fastest rate seen outside of the COVID-19 pandemic. During the pandemic, federal spending was significantly elevated through measures such as the American Rescue Act and other policies implemented to stabilize the economy amid lockdowns, supply chain disruptions, and business closures. In the same announcement, the Treasury noted that the U.S. national debt has reached a new record high of $38 trillion. For six consecutive years, the U.S. federal budget deficit has exceeded 1trillion.InFiscalYear2025,thedeficitstoodat 1.8 trillion, and projections for the current fiscal year (which commenced on October 1) range from

Trumpdictator #SNAP #USdebt #GovernmentShutdown #WhiteHouseBallroom

1.7trillionto 2.2 trillion. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has warned, "Absent a change in fiscal policy, interest costs will surpass spending on Social Security—the largest federal program—by 2044." Officials within the White House, as well as Trump’s allies in his Cabinet and Congress, contend that the fiscal outlook could be far more positive. In August, the administration claimed that tariff revenues would reduce the federal budget deficit by $4 trillion over a 10-year period. This week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that federal agencies have made progress in reducing spending as Fiscal Year 2025 has progressed. Secretary Bessent made this announcement to news networks during the annual IMF/World Bank meeting held in Washington, D.C. He told Fox Business, "I believe we could achieve substantial progress once again [next year] in lowering the U.S. deficit-to-GDP ratio." Economic experts emphasize that the federal debt exerts an influence on various economic factors, including interest rates and inflation, in ways that are often not fully appreciated by the majority of Americans. Additionally, it increases the cost of future federal investments in public services and programs. Michael Petersen, representing the Peter G. Petersen Foundation, stated in a comment to the Associated Press (AP), "Over the past decade, we spent 4trilliononinterestpayments.However,overthenexttenyears,thisfigureisexpectedtoreach 14 trillion. These interest costs displace crucial public and private investments in our future, thereby undermining the economy for every American." In an analysis released this week, the Peter G. Petersen Foundation further added, "Three consecutive downgrades of the U.S. credit rating should serve as a wake-up call for our elected leaders. For decades, the United States has reaped significant benefits from the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. Unless we alter our current fiscal path and improve our fiscal health, we risk jeopardizing this pivotal position."

Trumpdictator #SNAP #USdebt #GovernmentShutdown #WhiteHouseBallroom

#Trumpdictator #SNAP #USdebt #GovernmentShutdown #WhiteHouseBallroom

Poll: Americans’ Growing Shutdown Concern, Blame GOP, Trump Over DemsTrumpdictator #SNAP #USdebt #GovernmentShutdown #WhiteHouseBallroom

Nearly half say Trump and GOP are responsible for the shutdown, the poll finds.

A new poll reveals that Americans are growing increasingly anxious about the threat of a government shutdown, with a notable majority placing more blame on Republicans and former President Donald Trump than on Democrats. The survey, which tracks public sentiment amid ongoing congressional negotiations over federal funding, found that concerns have risen steadily in recent weeks—driven by fears of disrupted public services, delayed federal benefits, and potential instability for the U.S. economy. When asked to assign responsibility for the looming shutdown risk, a plurality of respondents pointed to Republican lawmakers and Trump (who has publicly pressured GOP members to take a hard line on spending) as the primary culprits. In contrast, fewer participants held Democrats accountable, citing their willingness to negotiate on bipartisan funding deals. The poll’s findings underscore the deep partisan divide in how Americans view government gridlock, while also highlighting widespread frustration over the possibility of a shutdown that could harm millions of households and businesses.

Trumpdictator #SNAP #USdebt #GovernmentShutdown #WhiteHouseBallroom

"A regarding the skyrocketing of healthcare premiums for all Americans, they refuse to compromise. He does not stand for all Americans—only his own interests matter," stated a 65-year-old woman affiliated with the Democratic Party in Wisconsin. "They appear more focused on retaining power than working for the nation's interests," commented a 78-year-old independent man who leans Republican in Oregon. "They hold control over all branches of the federal government," noted a 45-year-old man affiliated with the Democratic Party in Tennessee. "Mr. Trump is the President, and the Republican Party holds the majority. Furthermore, Speaker Johnson dismissed the House for recess, and Mr. Trump along with the Republican Party will not even attempt to collaborate with Democrats on the issue of healthcare funding cuts—cuts that will harm millions of people," said a 34-year-old woman affiliated with the Democratic Party in Minnesota. "Mr. Trump himself stated a few years ago that it is the President's responsibility to bring the two sides together," remarked a 59-year-old independent woman who leans Democratic in Pennsylvania. Among those who hold the Democratic Party accountable: "They advocate for healthcare coverage for illegal immigrants to be funded by taxpayers like myself. This is unjust," stated a 78-year-old woman affiliated with the Republican Party in Oregon. "Because they refuse to compromise," said a 37-year-old independent woman who leans Republican in Arizona. "They seek to negotiate healthcare subsidies, yet they are unwilling to conduct such negotiations within the relevant committees of the House of Representatives and the Senate. They are holding the entire government hostage over a single issue," commented a 78-year-old man affiliated with the Republican Party in South Carolina. "They have voted down continuing resolutions on multiple occasions," noted a 56-year-old independent man who leans Republican in Nebraska. "The Democratic Party is the side that refuses to compromise to reach an agreement," stated a 43-year-old independent woman in Texas. "The Democratic Party has expressed support for the provisions in the continuing resolution while demanding additional measures that will further increase the national debt," said a 69-year-old independent man who leans Republican in California. "The Republican Party proposed and passed a clean bill without any additional Republican-backed provisions, yet the Democratic Party has consistently voted against it," commented a 76-year-old man affiliated with the Republican Party in Texas. For the full results, please refer to the attached PDF. Methodology: This ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll was conducted online via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® from October 24 to 28, 2025, in both English and Spanish. The survey was administered among a random national sample of 2,725 U.S. adults, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points (including the design effect). It should be noted that error margins are larger for subgroups. The partisan breakdown of the sample is 28% Democrats, 31% Republicans, and 41% independents.

Trumpdictator #SNAP #USdebt #GovernmentShutdown #WhiteHouseBallroom

#Trumpdictator #SNAP #USdebt #GovernmentShutdown #WhiteHouseBallroom

Flight delays persisted on Monday, as air traffic controllers were compelled to work without pay.Trumpdictator #SNAP #USdebt #GovernmentShutdown

Transportation chief said he expects more flights to be delayed, canceled, with air traffic controllers set to miss paychecks Tuesday.

Trumpdictator #SNAP #USdebt #GovernmentShutdown

Approximately 3,370 flights across the United States experienced delays on Monday—the 27th day of the government shutdown—due to an increase in essential workers failing to report for duty. In addition to these delays, 118 flights departing from or arriving in the U.S. were canceled on Monday, according to data from FlightAware, a leading flight tracking website. The latest disruptions follow operational backlogs at airports over the weekend. FlightAware data indicates that more than 8,700 U.S. flights were delayed on Sunday, as shortages of air traffic controllers have intensified. Notably, these workers are set to miss their first full paychecks on Tuesday. “Notices were issued to them on Thursday and Friday, outlining their expected pay for Tuesday—and those notices made it clear that no paycheck will be issued that day,” Sean Duffy, Secretary of the Department of Transportation, told Fox News on Sunday. “I have been engaging with air traffic controllers, and the stress they are under is evident. Many of these individuals live paycheck to paycheck… They are expressing concerns about affording gasoline for their vehicles and securing childcare services,” he further noted. Mr. Duffy reported that 22 so-called “staffing triggers”—indicators of personnel shortages—were recorded at air traffic control towers and facilities across the U.S. on Sunday. “That is a sign that controllers are being stretched thin,” Mr. Duffy stated, adding that he anticipates a further increase in the frequency of flight delays and cancellations in the coming days, as staffing shortages at control towers worsen. It is worth noting that the U.S. already faced a shortage of air traffic controllers prior to the onset of the government shutdown. However, the current impasse poses a threat to efforts aimed at ramping up staffing levels for this critical role. During the shutdown, Mr. Duffy has advised against air traffic controllers undertaking second jobs—even though some personnel consider such additional work essential to support their families amid ongoing unpaid employment.

Trumpdictator #SNAP #USdebt #GovernmentShutdown

#Trumpdictator #SNAP #USdebt #GovernmentShutdown

How the "One Big Beautiful Bill" Fumbles Recession ReliefTrumpdictator #medicaid #USrecession #RichgetRicher #PoorgetPoorer #TrumpScam

Lauren Bauer and Diane Schanzenbach analyze how SNAP cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will affect the program’s response to recessions

In this article, we delve into how modifications to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, previously known as the Food Stamp Program), now codified into law through the Comprehensive Economic Adjustment Act (CEAA), will influence the program's capacity to mitigate economic downturns. Amidst considerable uncertainty regarding the economic trajectory, CEAA introduces structural alterations to SNAP that, according to our analysis, will significantly and adversely impair its responsiveness to worsening or sluggish economic conditions. Unless the SNAP reductions enacted under CEAA are reversed, these cuts will substantially curtail or eliminate SNAP's vital function as a national automatic stabilizer.

Economic recessions inflict widespread hardship: heightened job loss risks, prolonged unemployment, constrained credit access, financial strain, business closures, diminished tax revenues, and slower economic growth. Not all downturns are national in scope; they can be localized or regional, stemming from factors like the decline of a regional industry, plant shutdowns, or natural disasters. During recessions, policymakers can deploy various fiscal and monetary policy tools to alleviate hardship and mitigate the downturn's severity and duration. However, identifying the onset of a recession, formulating and passing relevant legislation or adjusting monetary policy, and then disbursing resources all take time.

As economic conditions worsen, certain policies—termed automatic stabilizers—activate without requiring policymaker intervention. Traditionally, SNAP has served as a crucial automatic stabilizer because individuals who lose their jobs or see their incomes decline and thus newly qualify for SNAP can enroll and promptly receive and spend benefits at grocery stores. SNAP not only addresses a fundamental need by providing resources for food but also, as recipients immediately spend these benefits locally, aids in stabilizing and stimulating the economy. These effects are transient: As economic conditions improve and needs diminish, SNAP enrollment and associated spending decline.

The most detrimental policy change under CEAA affecting SNAP's role in combating recessions is the unprecedented shift of substantial program costs from the federal government to states. We anticipate that altering SNAP's structure by terminating guaranteed full federal funding of program benefits, as CEAA mandates, will almost inevitably lead some states to significantly reduce SNAP participation and possibly cause others to withdraw from the program entirely. This post-CEAA scenario will exacerbate as economic conditions deteriorate: Nearly all states must balance their budgets even during recessions, when revenues decline, and will face pressures to cut SNAP. Consequently, rather than expanding during recessions in tandem with economic contraction, SNAP is likely to contract as well, further weakening the economy.

CEAA also revises SNAP's work requirement policy, undermining its role in supporting workers who lose their jobs and stimulating local economies experiencing job losses during downturns. Older adults aged 55 to 64 and parents without children under 14, both without a documented work-limiting disability, will now be subject to time-limited work requirements, alongside individuals aged 18 to 54 without dependents or a documented work-limiting disability. CEAA eliminates exemptions from time-limited work requirements for veterans, individuals experiencing homelessness, and former foster care youth.

Moreover, CEAA severely restricts states' ability to seek waivers from time-limited work requirements when local economies struggle by limiting waivers to areas with unemployment rates of at least 10 percent, a level well above that experienced in many regions even during severe recessions. The USDA will terminate all existing waivers on November 2, 2025. Conditioning SNAP eligibility on work during economic contractions or poor labor market conditions will penalize workers who have recently lost their jobs or income, making it harder for them to recover and re-enter the workforce.

The Hamilton Project has conducted extensive research on countercyclical policy and commissioned numerous policy proposals on effectively combating recessions, including the publications "Recession Ready" and "Recession Remedies." Delivering timely, targeted, and temporary resources to those most in need and most likely to spend them quickly through automatic stabilizer programs like SNAP is crucial for making recessions shallower and shorter. Policymakers could adopt a different approach, reforming SNAP to enhance its effectiveness, both generally and in responding to recessions.

For instance, we have proposed that a temporary increase in federally funded SNAP benefits should automatically trigger when the economy contracts, as should a nationwide suspension of SNAP work requirements. Such policies, akin to those enacted by Congress during the last two recessions, would shield Americans from some recession-induced hardships, sever the link between work and program eligibility when job opportunities are scarce, and stimulate the economy during downturns by directing resources quickly to those in need. However, these countercyclical SNAP policies, along with Congress's responses during the Great Recession and the COVID-19 recession, reflect SNAP prior to CEAA.

The optimal policy response to the SNAP changes in CEAA is for Congress to repeal them.

Failing that, Congress should prioritize reversing the structural change that shifts a portion of SNAP benefit costs to states before it takes effect. Congress and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) should also consider reinstating the previous criteria for SNAP work requirements and waivers of those requirements, or at least aligning SNAP work requirement waiver rules with the new Medicaid work requirement waiver rules in CEAA, as they differ significantly without any justification provided for the divergence (other than the need for the congressional committees that drafted CEAA to meet stringent, predetermined spending-cut targets). Additionally, while we believe evidence supports ending SNAP time-limited work requirements in policy and practice, Congress should at least follow past precedent by suspending time-limited work requirements nationwide during recessions.

#biguglybill #bigbeautifulbill #Trumpdictator #medicaid #USrecession #RichgetRicher #PoorgetPoorer #TrumpScam

November Food Assistance Adjustments: Verify Your Eligibility StatusTrumpdictator #medicaid #USrecession #RichgetRicher #PoorgetPoorer #TrumpScam

https://thehill.com/homenews/5550044-snap-changes-heres-who-could-lose-benefits-in-november/

States are alerting SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) beneficiaries that their eligibility for nutritional aid may be altered as a critical November deadline looms for compliance with the Comprehensive Welfare Reform Act.

This sweeping legislation, enacted during the summer, restructures the SNAP framework, which serves over 42 million individuals. The reforms are anticipated to result in the exclusion of certain recipients from the program, as federal funding is projected to decrease by an estimated $185 billion over the next ten years. SNAP Benefit Adjustments Begin in October: Key Information Several key aspects of the act are slated for enforcement starting in November. Here’s an overview of the anticipated modifications. Stricter Work Mandates and Reduced Exemptions A significant alteration pertains to ABAWDs (Able-Bodied Adults Without Dependents). Essentially, these adults must demonstrate at least 80 hours of monthly employment, enrollment in an educational program, or participation in a training initiative to maintain SNAP eligibility. Without such verification, benefits are limited to a maximum of three months.

Prior to the Comprehensive Welfare Reform Act, there were notable exceptions to this work requirement. Initially, it applied only to adults aged 18 to 54. Now, the mandate extends to all able-bodied adults under 65. Parents previously responsible for a dependent under 18 were also exempt from work requirements, but this exemption now applies only to those caring for a child under 14.

Moreover, veterans, homeless individuals, and young adults exiting foster care were previously exempt. Currently, all these groups must fulfill work requirements to receive benefits beyond three months. Conversely, a new exemption from work requirements has been introduced for "Indigenous Peoples, also recognized as Native Americans, Alaska Natives, and Tribal Members" as defined by the legislation. Although these changes took effect immediately upon the law's enactment on July 4, the Food and Nutrition Service granted states a 120-day period to implement them. The deadline for full compliance is November 1, 2025.

What If Employment Opportunities Are Scarce? In regions where job availability is particularly limited, ABAWD work requirements may be waived. The Comprehensive Welfare Reform Act mandates that an area must have an unemployment rate exceeding 10% to qualify for such a waiver. Alaska and Hawaii have slightly different criteria.

Immigrant SNAP Eligibility The Comprehensive Welfare Reform Act modifies "non-citizen eligibility for SNAP," impacting certain legally residing groups.

According to a memo from Oregon’s Department of Human Services, refugees, asylum seekers, and survivors of human trafficking will all be affected and may lose benefits.

The Food and Nutrition Service has yet to release comprehensive details on the implementation of this provision but has indicated that "further guidance is forthcoming."

Additional Reforms on the Horizon Critics argue that other provisions of the Comprehensive Welfare Reform Act will lead to further reductions in who qualifies for food assistance and the extent of aid families receive. The law restricts how annual cost-of-living adjustments are computed, alters the calculation of utility expenses in determining household need, and discontinues funding for the SNAP Nutrition Education and Obesity Prevention Grant Program, which facilitated broader access to nutritious food. Another substantial aspect of the bill shifts a greater portion of SNAP administrative costs to states. Previously, costs were shared equally, but starting in the 2027 fiscal year, states will bear 75% of the responsibility.

For the first time, some states will also be required to contribute a portion of the food benefits starting in the 2028 fiscal year.

Under the new legislation, the federal government will fully fund SNAP benefits only for states with an error rate in payments to individuals below 6%. According to federal data, just seven states—Idaho, Nebraska, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Wisconsin, and Wyoming—met this criterion last year. Nationally, nearly 11% of SNAP payments contained errors last year.

Beginning in 2028, states with error rates exceeding 6% will be required to cover between 5% and 15% of SNAP benefit costs. States with higher error rates will generally face greater financial responsibility, but a Senate amendment postpones the cost-share implementation until as late as 2030 for states with the highest error rates.

As a consequence of this cost shift, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) anticipates that some states may reduce or terminate SNAP benefits for certain individuals.

#Trumpdictator #medicaid #USrecession #RichgetRicher #PoorgetPoorer #TrumpScam

Trending Blogs

Recently Viewed Blogs

无标题