Outer Banks Pro- FIRST EVENT CALL TOMORROW (8/31) 7AM!
Updated: Tuesday afternoon 30th (Local Time)
Event Window: August 31st - September 5th
Small surf continues through the first couple of days of the event window
Window of clean conditions in the morning Wed (August 31st)
A front moves through Thur (September 1st) producing onshore winds through Sun (September 4th)
Slight increase in contestable ESE swell Fri/Sat ( September 2nd - September 3rd)
Increasing likelihood for building ESE swell from a tropical system Monday (September 5th), with a period of lighter to manageable onshore winds early
Late morning shifting towards an early afternoon high tide during the contest window
Minor surf due for the first two days of the event window (August 31st/ September 1st) in a mix of small shorter period swell, windswell, and mid period E/ESE trade swell. Rideable if the sand cooperates, but during small runs of similar surf lately, we have typically seen inside closeouts at the south side of Jennettes. So, my hopes are not too high for much contestable surf, given the currently expected scenario the first two days of the contest window. Look for offshore to side offshore winds in the morning Wednesday, that trend mildly onshore in the afternoon. Thursday, we will see a front sag through the area, and mild northerly winds early on will build mildly from the northeast into the afternoon.
For Friday and Saturday ( September 2nd - September 3rd), I continue to expect a little bump up of slightly enhanced mid period ESE swell to mix with some local NE/ENE windswell from onshore winds behind the frontal boundary. This windswell continues to look rather small and will not add much if any size to the surf, but with the accompanying onshore winds we should expect textured/choppy conditions. The mid-period ESE swell we will see has been moving through the NE St. Martin buoy (41044) today. The swell appears to be coming in line with NCEP guidance thus far, and although not too substantial, it should still be enough to produce a few larger sets on the mid to higher tides than what we see the prior days. I continue to expect these two days to be contestable on the mid to higher tides, even if unremarkable.
The last two days of the contest window Sunday and Monday ( September 4th - September 5th), remain less clear from a forecast perspective, but the overall trend of the forecast guidance suite is towards a slower to develop and less intense tropical system shifting into the Western Atlantic over the coming days. At this forecast range, small differences in track, motion, size, and intensity will all continue to have a cascading effect into our local surf heights. With the recent trends, the timing for building swell from the tropical system has been pushed back roughly 24hrs. As a result, I am now looking for more small but contestable surf Sunday, with a slow build of SE/ESE swell Monday afternoon. The size specifics are likely to continue moving up and down a bit, as we await some better observations of winds over water, and upstream swell performance. Current forecast indications suggest light winds to start Sunday, providing decent conditions early before modest onshore ENE breezes add manageable texture. A similar pattern of modestly building onshore winds is expected for Monday, lightest in the morning.
WEDNESDAY 31st: 1-2' faces with modest offshore winds in the AM that trend more onshore in the afternoon.
SWELL: Small mid period ESE swell mixes with shorter period SSE/SE swell. Sets are in the knee to thigh high range. Consistency low.
WIND: Modest+ offshore W/WNW winds ease and trend more E/SE into the afternoon.
TIDE: High tide at 10:36AM.
THURSDAY 1st: 1-2' faces with mild varying onshore winds early trending to modest onshore winds in the afternoon.
SWELL: Small mid period ESE swell mixes with minor local NE wind chop. Sets are in the knee to thigh high range. Consistency low.
WIND: Mild varying N/NW winds early trend more NE and build modestly into the afternoon.
TIDE: High tide at 11:20AM.
FRIDAY 2nd: 1-2-3' faces with moderate onshore winds through the day.
SWELL: Small mid period ESE swell ticks up just a bit and continues mixing with shorter period ENE windswell. Sets are in the thigh to waist high range. Consistency medium, certainly better than prior days.
WIND: Moderate NE/ENE onshore winds through the day.
TIDE: High tide at 12:12PM.
SATURDAY 3rd: 1-2-3' faces with mild onshore winds early that build through the day.
SWELL: Continued slight uptick in mid period ESE swell mixes with shorter period ENE/E windswell. Sets are in the thigh to waist high range. Consistency medium again.
WIND: Moderate onshore ENE winds develop through the day, lighter than Friday but becoming steady by late morning.
TIDE: High tide at 1:11PM.
SUNDAY 4th: 1-2-3' faces with mild onshore morning winds that build modestly from the E/ENE into the afternoon.
SWELL: Mid period ESE swell mixes with short period ENE/E windswell. Surf to linger in the same range as Saturday afternoon, thigh to waist high sets, but a little less consistent on the better ones. Consistency medium to low.
WIND: Mild morning winds build modestly into the afternoon from the E/ENE.
TIDE: High tide at 2:19PM.
MONDAY 5th: 1-2-3' faces building to 2-3'+ late, with mild onshore morning winds that build modestly from the E/ESE into the afternoon.
SWELL: Mid to longer period ESE swell to build slowly late in the day, mixing with small ongoing E windswell. Sets are in the thigh to waist high range early, building to waist to stomach high sets in the late afternoon and evening. Consistency medium.
WIND: Mild onshore morning winds build moderately into the afternoon from the E/ESE.
TIDE: High tide at 3:31PM.
LOTUS swell height chart valid Saturday evening, depicts a modestly strengthening tropical system in the Western Atlantic poised to deliver building ESE/SE swell for the very end of the contest window
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