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Grandfather Justin Tolman physics and chemistry teacher to Philo Farnsworth, inventor of television.
“Organisms need, to use the metaphor of Marcus Aurelius, to turn obstacles into fuel—just as fire does.”
― Nassim Nicholas Taleb,
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
I often quote from The Black Swan because it is one of the most impactful books I have read in recent years. Being in a field of work where I often study disasters, it provides a good framework for understanding “events” that cause disruption. Combined with his second book, Antifragile, Taleb gives us the ability to understand how the events occur, why we didn’t see them coming, and how to prosper during or following the event.
One of the characteristics of an “event” is that it brings with it a certain level of pain and discomfort. If it doesn’t challenge us, it isn’t really an event. In other words, it is gonna suck.
Working with various Marine Corps units over the years, I have learned a Marine standard to cope with adversity, which they call “the Suck.”
They say, “Embrace the Suck.”
There is brilliance in this. They do not say, “Endure the suck.” They do not say, “Tolerate the suck.” They do not say, “Try to get through the suck as best you can.” Instead they embrace it.
Black Swans
By definition an “event” is something that disrupts the status quo. In the case of a natural disaster, this means a disruption to utilities, goods and services that make our lives easier.
A Black Swan event is highly improbable, and very consequential. Some Black Swan event disruptions are world wide, like 9/11. Some are regional, and some are personal, but they all create change in an extreme way. They can be positive or negative, but we’ll leave “inheriting an unexpected fortune” for another day, and focus on the ones we dread.
What Marcus Aurelius is suggesting in our original quote is the need to look at the event as an opportunity rather than as our downfall. In his book Antifragile, Taleb identifies individuals who when faced with a Black Swan event do not fold. The people who can rebound in an adverse event are called resilient. But the “antifragile” are those who can figure out a way to prosper from an event.
For example, following one of the hurricanes in Louisiana I remember seeing a 12 year old on the street near our camp pulling an ice chest around. In it he had water bottles. He was selling them to folks like us. He wasn’t overcharging. He had a supply and he saw an opportunity. He was making a tidy profit.
This to me is the picture of mental toughness. It is embracing the suck. But how do you get to the where you can turn obstacles into fuel for the fire?
The first rule is to keep an untroubled spirit.
The second is to look things in the face and know them for what they are. - Marcus Aurelius
First you must anticipate the suck. You have to know it is going to hurt. And you have to be OK with that. It has been my experience that pain is part of the process of turning obstacles into fuel.
Second, be “outcome focused.” I happen to have a calm demeanor. Regardless of what happens, I try to stay focused on finding a solution to the problem. This has served me well. That is because I rehearse mentally various scenarios and my reactions to them all the time. Having a vivid imagination helps.
The impediment to action advances action. What stands in the way becomes the way. -Marcus Aurelius
Third, stay aware. It helps to see the event coming, but that is not always possible. If I keep my awareness up, I can see the event occurring and act as quickly as possible. Getting behind an event is not a good place to be. Reaction is always slower than action. In the Urban Escape & Evasion class, we teach how to use awareness to stay ahead of unfolding events.
Fourth, train. Practice the skills that you think will serve you in an emergency. First aid, shooting skills, movement, survival skills. Whatever you anticipate needing skill wise you must train to do. The skill will not magically appear.
Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present. - Marcus Aurelius
Fifth, analyze prior Black Swans. Look for the antifragile people who figured out how to prosper. Study what they did.
For example, following 9-11, a Black Swan of epic proportions, there were some who anticipated that the US military could not meet the combat demands and provide all of the other services that were going to be needed. Companies like Blackwater and Triple Canopy anticipate the need and filled it. Whether you agree with the privatization of some military functions or not, it is a good example of being anitfragile.
So reflecting again on the fire analogy, can you become the fire?
The inner master, when confronted with an obstacle, uses it as fuel, like a fire which consumes things that are thrown into it. A small lamp would be snuffed out, but a big fire will engulf what is thrown at it and burn hotter; it consumes the obstacle and uses it to reach a higher level. - Marcus Aurelius
You cannot possibly anticipate everything and you cannot train in every possible skill. But with a little forethought and hard work, you will be able to get ahead of the event. Turning obstacles into fuel. The suck doesn’t have to suck.
©2018 Kevin B Reeve - onPoint Tactical Kevin Reeve is the creator of onPoint Tactical’s, Urban Survival and Urban Escape & Evasion training. Kevin has trained SERE instructors, as well as special forces, regular military, law enforcement, government and NGO aid workers, as well as average citizens.
Kevin is also an expert in military Scout Skills, land navigation and advanced outdoor survival skills. onPoint Tactical, LLC has been in operation since 2004. Visit our website. Find us on Facebook & Instagram.
www.onPointTactical.com
Text or Call 609-668-5384
FLASHBACK: 2017
The Bielski Brothers and Resistance members
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It was a chance encounter in an abandoned building in Harlem, in 2010. I was there with Kevin for his upcoming role in the History Channel’s program,
After Armageddon
Others were there to be interviewed on the apocalyptic-looking set. As I waited for Kevin to finish, I ended up seated next to an infectious disease specialist from the UK. As we chatted about his role in the film, he shared a story that I will never forget.
The Worst Possible Plan
This epidemiologist explained that the UK government, in the event of an influenza epidemic, when the demand for medical care would overrun their normal facilities and treatment capacity, originally planned to set up triage stations in large venues. They planned to recruit 18-25 year olds to staff those triage stations. These young adults would assess patients’ conditions, and then, depending on the severity of flu symptoms, would disperse them to nearby clinics, hospitals and temporary stations.
Their thinking had been to use the healthiest people, college age students, who would normally be the least likely to get sick, due to their superior immune systems. Influenza was a real viral war, so it made sense that the frontline troops would be young and healthy - fighting age.
The epidemiologist was appalled.
Having been invited to advise government on how to improve the plan, he told them to immediately scrap the idea of using college-age students, because it could kill them. If the government had implemented this plan, many of those young people would have gotten ill, and many would have died due to a critical factor. There couldn't have been a worse plan.
Turns out that if there’s anything worse than no plan, it’s having the wrong plan that would have created more fatalities.
I was confused.
The Raging Storm
The epidemiologist patiently explained that ironically, it is often the young and healthy who experience the most severe flu symptoms due to an overreaction by their high-functioning immune systems. Like a stuck accelerator, their bodies can create a potentially fatal “always on” activation of T-cells.
This hyper immune response is called a cytokine storm; people can literally drown in their own fluids. Now I was surprised.
Talk about counterintuitive.
A recent example of this is the 40-year old marathon runner from San Jose, CA, mother of 3, who woke up with a sore throat, achy and feverish on New Year’s Day 2018, and died 2 days later.
Kate Thomas saw her doctor that same day, Tuesday, who confirmed that she had the flu and told her to go home and rest. On Wednesday her symptoms worsened. Her boyfriend drove her to the hospital where they confirmed she had the flu, and they sent her home to rest.
By Thursday, she was having trouble breathing. She went back to the hospital where x-rays confirmed she had pneumonia. She was admitted to the ICU and intubated. When her condition continued to deteriorate, the hospital called in a special team of doctors who attempted to save her. She died at 5pm that evening.
It is accurate to say: Katie Denise Oxley Thomas died in a storm, a cytokine storm.
There are many more examples in 2018.
21-year old bodybuilder dies of septic shock and organ failure after getting the flu.
Three previously healthy mothers die in one week from complications from the flu.
The Cytokine Attack
Here’s what happens:
“When the immune system is fighting pathogens, cytokines signal immune cells such as T-cells and macrophages to travel to the site of infection. In addition, cytokines activate those cells, stimulating them to produce more cytokines.
“Normally, this feedback loop is kept in check by the body. However, in some instances, the reaction becomes uncontrolled, and too many immune cells are activated in a single place. The precise reason for this is not entirely understood but may be caused by an exaggerated response when the immune system encounters a new and highly pathogenic invader.
“Cytokine storms have potential to do significant damage to body tissues and organs. If a cytokine storm occurs in the lungs, for example, fluids and immune cells such as macrophages may accumulate and eventually block off the airways, potentially resulting in death.
"The cytokine storm (hypercytokinemia) is the systemic expression of a healthy and vigorous immune system resulting in the release of more than 150 known inflammatory mediators (cytokines, oxygen free radicals, and coagulation factors).
(Sino Biological)
Influenza is a formidable opponent, who takes us on, one by one. The best we can do is heighten our awareness, take precautions like limiting exposure, and treat it seriously like the mass killer that it is.
Most people have never heard of a Cytokine Storm.
Now you know. Share this message. It can save lives.
Susan E. Reeve is the marketing, and social media coordinator for onPoint Tactical.
Kevin B. Reeve is the founder of onPoint Tactical, llc, a pioneer in the field of Urban Survival and Urban Escape & Evasion.
onPoint Tactical trains professionals and select civilians in Scout skills, Off-grid medicine, and more. Visit us on FACEBOOK, TWITTER, (@opTactical) INSTAGRAM and website.
www.onPointTactical.com
609-668-5384
Copyright Kevin Reeve, onPoint Tactical 2018
Tracking
Visit our website. www.onPointTactical.comor call 609-668-5384 Email
Upcoming classes 2017-2018 Click here for all class descriptions
2018
ST GEORGE * Winter Scout/Survival Jan 11-13
LAS VEGAS * Urban Escape & Evasion Jan 20-22* Prior to the SHOT SHOW
DENVER * Off-grid Medicine Feb 7-10
* NEW * ST GEORGE * Scout Engineering Feb 22-24 (see description below)
* NEW * ST GEORGE * Scout Tracking March 8-10
(see description below)
SAN JOSE * Urban Escape & Evasion Mar 22-24
LOS ANGELES * Urban Escape & Evasion April 12-14
ST GEORGE * Basic Scout April 23-25
ST GEORGE * Advanced Scout April 26-28
ST GEORGE * Recon Scout April 30-May 2
ST GEORGE * Jaeger Scout May 3-5
SALT LAKE CITY * Urban Escape & Evasion May 24-26
LOS ANGELES * Urban Evacuation June 4-6
LOS ANGELES * Urban Acquisition June 7-9
DENVER * Urban Escape & Evasion June 21-23
LOS ANGELES * Urban Escape & Evasion July 9-11
LOS ANGELES * Adv. Urban Escape & Evasion July 12-14
Back-2-Back Classes
Call for savings on 2 classesCan be taken separately or together
CALL us to take advantage of these savings: 609-668-5384
1. LOS ANGELES * Urban Escape & Evasion Dec 4-6
2. LOS ANGELES * ADVANCED Urban E&E Dec 7-10
1. ST GEORGE * Basic Scout April 23-25
2. ST GEORGE * Advanced Scout April 26-28
3. ST GEORGE * Recon Scout April 30-May 2
4. ST GEORGE * Jaeger Scout May 3-5
1. LOS ANGELES * Urban Evacuation June 4-6
2. LOS ANGELES * Urban Acquisition June 7-9
1. LOS ANGELES * Urban Escape & Evasion July 9-11 2. LOS ANGELES * Adv. Urban Escape & Evasion July 12-14
Contact us: 609-668-5384
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