Okay so everyone has been asking me to drop my notes so...here they are:
Lucio's character arc was largely boring and unsatisfying because there was very little growth and he never really answered for all of the bad things he did. If they wanted to give Lucio a redemption arc, then they should have given him an ACTUAL redemption arc.
Think of how BEAUTIFULLY the line in Julian's route about how some things are unforgivable, buy that doesn't mean that you can't grow and become a better person could have been applied to Lucio!
Because let's face it: the dude has done some unforgivable shit! It ALL should have been addressed in his route.
Asra should not have been so OOC. I'm sorry, but did they really expect us to believe that Asra would be more upset about MC getting together with Julian than he was about MC getting together with LUCIO??? After what Lucio did to him, his parents, Muriel, and MC? That's not good writing. 🤷♀️
Lucio should have had to interact with Julian and Muriel. What Lucio did to Julian was only alluded to, and they never talk about what he did to Muriel at all. You just can't have a satisfying redemption arc without properly addressing (or even bothering to address) two incredibly fucked up things that he did to two of the other main six.
I've seen people say that Lucio wouldn't remember Muriel, but that's not true. In Asra's route and Muriel's route, Lucio's goat ghost purposefully goes into the forest to fuck with Muriel. Muriel says that Lucio called him a "big, ugly killer" and told him to fetch him some wine. Ostensibly being between worlds is probably enough to make Muriel's spell not work. So there was no reason for it to have never been addressed.
I think it would've been much more interesting if Lucio spent the first half of the game trying to seduce MC and gain their trust - and having some genuine moments of connection (like in the Star's Labyrinth when Lucio lets MC rest because they looked happy and peaceful and he liked seeing them like that but didn't really understand why) - only for him to take their body at the Masquerade in the Devil book. MC would find out that they died of the plague during the Death book, but not that Lucio directly infected them and maybe not even that Lucio caused the plague just yet.
Lucio decending the staircase in MC's body, smirking and reveling in the attention!
But! He sees MC's ghost in the crowd looking utterly betrayed and hurt! (Maybe because of the blood magic, MC's spirit is tied to Lucio in return?)
And suddenly the whole moment doesn't feel as good as he thought it would, and his smile starts to slip.
In The Tower book, MC would confront him, and Lucio would insist that it wasn't personal and really not that big of a deal, and really, MC owed him, right? MC's the one who took it from him in the first place.
But MC would be like, "not personal to who?" And just really tear all of Lucio's deflections/justifications/excuses/lies to bits.
Because Lucio likes to think of himself as a hero, right? But MC would bring that entire false self-concept crashing down around him, and he would have to finally face what he actually is.
And then Lucio would decide that instead of just pretending to be a hero, he wants to actually BECOME a hero.
He wants to become someone worthy of MC, and he wants to try to make things right.
So he breaks out Asra's parents, and restores The Lovers.
And look...Asra doesn't forgive him. He still doesn't want MC to be with Lucio. I think he would still help in the end for MC's sake, but he doesn't forgive or forget. Muriel wouldn't either. And while Lucio never did anything to Portia DIRECTLY, I don't think she would forgive him for what he did to Julian or Nadia.
And I think ultimately the only people who would eventually forgive Lucio entirely would be Morga and MC. I think Nadia would forgive him for how their marriage went, but not for everything. Similarly, I think Julian would be able to forgive the fact that Lucio force-fed him a plague beetle because I think Julian understands why would do something terrible because you were desperate and afraid, but I don't think he could really forgive the whole plague.
So anyways, Lucio would do as much as he could to undo the damage he has done, and atone for the things that he can't undo, regardless of whether or not he's forgiven.
And by doing this, the Devil's chains around his neck start to break, weakening the Devil.
And when there's just one chain left...Lucio gives MC the body back.
And that ends up breaking the final chain, which restores his old body, like in Nadia's route when MC breaks Lucio's chains. And then MC and Lucio would bind the Devil.
But! Lucio's restored body looks more like it did in the flashbacks where he has the plague, sans plague. Older, thinning hair - not the younger, idealized version from the painting that the Fool's body made him look like.
I think in the end, I think MC and Lucio would leave Vesuvia. He did too much damage there, and Nadia is a more fair, competent ruler than he ever was. I think they would go with Morga, so Lucio and she could rebuild their familial relationship.
Reversed ending, I think Lucio should've either killed the Devil and thrown the realms into chaos, or BECAME the Devil himself at the risk of being too similar to Nadia's reversed ending. Regardless, I think he would be able to make it up to MC, but still be relying on his vices in order to get him there.
So that's that. On a positive note, at least they absolutely knocked it out of the park with that Lucio bath CG.