So for several months now, I've been working on some dice stats for Dimension 20! Because everybody wants to know:
Does Murph roll worse than the others?
Obviously, this is not an easy question to answer. But I have the answer for Fantasy High Freshman Year!
Here’s a couple of notes/caveats first:
This is only for FHFY
Brennan’s rolls were not included in any of the Season Totals
Averages are based on the final total for the check/save/attack that was announced by the player, not one what was on the face of the die. This is because a majority of the time, the players announce the total without announcing what they rolled on the die.
Occasionally rolls did have to be estimated as the players just announced that they beat or didn’t beat a known DC/AC
I do regret doing this and when I have time I do intend to go back and find those rolls again and label them as Not Announced so they aren’t included in the averages. However, I don’t think there’s more than ten or so of these rolls.
Totals include rolls that I have classified as “Other” (vs Check/Save/Attack). Other rolls include announced initiatives, portent rolls, Siobhan rolling for Blink, and Murph rolling for the police.
When possible the success/failure of a roll was determined by DC/ACs or clear success/failure lines, though there were many where it was sometimes hard to tell if the roll was a success/failure.
FHFY Season Total:
917 Rolls
505 Successes
326 Failures
43 Nat 20s
43 Nat 1s
59.76% of rolls succeeded
The average of announced dice totals: 14.73
The Box of Doom was rolled in 11 times.
Crit Percentage: 9.38%
Nat 20 Percentage: 4.69%
Nat 1 Percentage: 4.69%
Worst Episode(s):
Episode 5 had the worst success percent
44.07% of rolls succeeded
Episode 1 had the worst announced average
12.04 announced average
Best Episode:
Episode 10 had the best success percent and best announced average.
78.00% of rolls succeeded
18.04 announced average
Success percentage:
Siobhan had the highest success percentage with 66.21%
Emily had the lowest success percentage with 54.69%
Announced average:
Murph had the highest announced average of 15.48
Ally had the lowest announced average of 13.26
Percentage of crits:
Highest percentage of crits: Ally with 15.63% of their rolls being Nat 1s or Nat 20s.
Lowest percentage of crits: Emily with 6.25% of her rolls being Nat 1s or Nat 20s.
Highest percentage of Nat 20s: Zac with 7.39% of his rolls being Nat 20s.
Highest percentage of Nat 1s: Ally with 8.33% of their rolls being Nat 1s.
Lowest percentage of Nat 20s: Murph with 2.86% of his rolls being Nat 20s.
Lowest percentage of Nat 1s: Emily with 2.34% of her rolls being Nat 1s.
Ally Season Total:
96 Rolls
47 Successes
34 Failures
7 Nat 20s
8 Nat 1s
56.25% of rolls succeeded
The average of announced dice totals: 13.26
They rolled 10.47% of all rolls
Crit Percentage: 15.63%
Nat 20 Percentage: 7.29%
Nat 1 Percentage: 8.33%
Emily Season Total:
128 Rolls
65 Successes
55 Failures
5 Nat 20s
3 Nat 1s
54.69% of rolls succeeded
The average of announced dice totals: 14.35
She rolled 13.97% of all rolls
Crit Percentage: 6.25%
Nat 20 Percentage: 3.91%
Nat 1 Percentage: 2.34%
Lou Season Total:
162 Rolls
93 Successes
58 Failures
5 Nat 20s
6 Nat 1s
60.49% of rolls succeeded
The average of announced dice totals: 14.59
He rolled 17.67% of all rolls
He rolled in the Box of Doom 3 times
Crit Percentage: 6.79%
Nat 20 Percentage: 3.09%
Nat 1 Percentage: 3.70%
Murph Season Total:
210 Rolls
121 Successes
71 Failures
6 Nat 20s
12 Nat 1s
60.48% of rolls succeeded
The average of announced dice totals: 15.48
He rolled 22.90 % of all rolls
He rolled in the Box of Doom 4 times
Crit Percentage: 8.57%
Nat 20 Percentage: 2.86%
Nat 1 Percentage: 5.71%
Siobhan Season Total:
145 Rolls
89 Successes
43 Failures
7 Nat 20s
6 Nat 1s
66.21% of rolls succeeded
The average of announced dice totals: 14.77
She rolled 15.81 % of all rolls
She rolled in the Box of Doom 2 times
Crit Percentage: 8.97%
Nat 20 Percentage: 4.83%
Nat 1 Percentage: 4.14%
Zac Season Total:
176 Rolls
90 Successes
65 Failures
13 Nat 20s
8 Nat 1s
58.52% of rolls succeeded
The average of announced dice totals: 14.99
He rolled 19.19% of all rolls
He rolled in the Box of Doom 2 times
Crit Percentage: 11.93%
Nat 20 Percentage: 7.39%
Nat 1 Percentage: 4.55%
So the answer is: Kinda
From just looking at FHFY, Murph does have the highest number of Nat 1s, and the second highest percent of his total rolls be Nat 1s, but that's also just because he rolled a lot more often than the other players. This is both because Murph was an absolute plot hound, trying to keep thing things on track, and because Riz has to make attack rolls while others like Fig and Kristen force Brennan to make saves rather than making attack rolls. Murph however has the highest announced dice total average.
This is my passion project that I work on for fun when I can carve out the time. I do plan to do the other seasons of d20, starting with the other Intrepid Heroes seasons. I've done some of the FHJY episodes as they've come out, but haven't had the time to do much more than watch the episodes. I do also hope to eventually be able to figure out all of the proficiency bonuses and what not to get as accurate of an idea of what the players rolled on the die instead of what they announced.
I am fascinated by how often this differs from my nat 20 / nat 1 count. I have to look through my spreadsheet, maybe we approached counting rolls with advantage/disadvantage differently or something. Love how the overall results are still very similar though! Awesome analysis!
FACT: Some craftsmen, NOT ALL OF THEM, some craftsmen are just people in their basement putting resin into moulds and selling those babies online with the care and precision of a whiskey licked blacksmith in the wild west.
FACT: It's not unlikely for a lot of those dice to be incorrectly filled, uneven or Weighted.
FACT: If I was to buy a whole bunch of these die with many of them being weighted, some of them would be weighted to low numbers and some to high.
FACT: It is reasonable and likely for me to gravitate towards the die that give me High Numbers and go "oh these are my special dice" "oh this one is blessed by the goddess" and to remove low rolling dice from my line up.
FACT: This is not a phenomenon that occurs as often with metal die.
FACT: If I was a player who staunchly defended my metal dice while everyone else at the table used resin or fanmade dice, if I was a player who stood by my dice through thick or thin, refusing to switch dice out from my roster, if I was a player who had Publicly claimed my loyalty to metal dice on many occasions, I would statistically roll worse.
FACT: Brian Murphy does not have just as good a chance as rolling as any of you.
In light of recent news that tumblr might die one day soon, I want to inform you all that I will keep hosting the statistics elsewhere. I'm thinking on it, but worst case I'll host it on my art website somewhere. Maybe I'll check out Bluesky or whatever it's called.
Also did y'all catch the last Burrow's End ep? That was stressful.
The biggest challenge I face collecting my data is that I get swept away by the transcripts and have to scroll back up to log the rolls bc I just started enjoying the narrative and forgot...
Hello!! Im not sure how many people run this blog or if its just one - but would you be interested or consider having someone come in and be extra help with the stats?? Just cause it seems like a lot!!
Hi, it's just me, a single person! That's very kind but honestly this is like, a very fun hobby for me and I'm a control freak? So I am enjoying doing it by myself. If the D20 hyperfixation leaves me at any point (doubtful) I might bequeath the blog to a worthy successor or something, tho.
This blog is not dead! Things have been busy but I'm working on The Unsleeping City.
Curse my insistance on doing these chronologically, because god do I wanna run the numbers on Jasper's terrible rolls on Burrow's End like Erika asked! Maybe I'll be able to catch up before Fantasy High Sophomore Year concludes... Imagine a world where I can publish the stats for a season within a week of its conclusion! [Wistful sigh.]
Another thing.
I have been thinking about wether to do stats for non-D&D seasons. At this point I'm really only tracking numbers of D20 rolls (per player, percentage of crits, spread of ability scores used, et.c.) and in a system like Kids on Bikes that doesn't work. I could track how often they explode and stuff, but I suspect the problem of players not announcing the number on the die unless it's a 1 or a 20 would persist, and maybe extend to not announcing the 1s either on the lower dice, reducing the accuracy/reliability of my statistics. but maybe that's baseless?
Oh hey this website has polls! What do you guys think?
Should I track the stats for non-D&D seasons too?
Yes, you'll figure it out, and I would love to see their stats as well
No, it seems tricky and it's enough to just track the D&D seasons
Just give it a shot and then bail if it's not doable / statistically viable
Yeah! I was really curious about if Murph was statistically a worse roller than the others. So I went through all the Intrepid Heroes seasons and looked at just the Nat 1s vs Nat 20s. And while crits either way do tell a story, it's not the whole story. And so I moved on to looking at all the rolls and realized that knowing what they add to it would be super helpful which has lead to trying to reconstruct their character sheets. I'm pretty sure I've got Adaine's as close to done as I can and possibly Fabian's as well. The others have a pretty big chunk done. I try to note where numbers come from and some of the assumptions I make to get to them. There's definitely times where I'm so confused as to where they get some of the bonuses they announced (mostly Ally with Kristen which I think comes from Ally having never played dnd before Fantasy High)
Oh that's so much work, oh my god. I very briefly tried to track the numbers on every d20 roll they made and then just absolutely gave up once I realised that a) I didn't know their modifiers, and b) often they just say 'I didn't get it' or 'yeah that definitely hits' or something to that effect. My spreadsheet only tracks nat 20s, nat 1s and 'other' for this exact reason.
This blog is not dead! Things have been busy but I'm working on The Unsleeping City.
Curse my insistance on doing these chronologically, because god do I wanna run the numbers on Jasper's terrible rolls on Burrow's End like Erika asked! Maybe I'll be able to catch up before Fantasy High Sophomore Year concludes... Imagine a world where I can publish the stats for a season within a week of its conclusion! [Wistful sigh.]
Another thing.
I have been thinking about wether to do stats for non-D&D seasons. At this point I'm really only tracking numbers of D20 rolls (per player, percentage of crits, spread of ability scores used, et.c.) and in a system like Kids on Bikes that doesn't work. I could track how often they explode and stuff, but I suspect the problem of players not announcing the number on the die unless it's a 1 or a 20 would persist, and maybe extend to not announcing the 1s either on the lower dice, reducing the accuracy/reliability of my statistics. but maybe that's baseless?
Oh hey this website has polls! What do you guys think?
Should I track the stats for non-D&D seasons too?
Yes, you'll figure it out, and I would love to see their stats as well
No, it seems tricky and it's enough to just track the D&D seasons
Just give it a shot and then bail if it's not doable / statistically viable
This blog is not dead! Things have been busy but I'm working on The Unsleeping City.
Curse my insistance on doing these chronologically, because god do I wanna run the numbers on Jasper's terrible rolls on Burrow's End like Erika asked! Maybe I'll be able to catch up before Fantasy High Sophomore Year concludes... Imagine a world where I can publish the stats for a season within a week of its conclusion! [Wistful sigh.]
Another thing.
I have been thinking about wether to do stats for non-D&D seasons. At this point I'm really only tracking numbers of D20 rolls (per player, percentage of crits, spread of ability scores used, et.c.) and in a system like Kids on Bikes that doesn't work. I could track how often they explode and stuff, but I suspect the problem of players not announcing the number on the die unless it's a 1 or a 20 would persist, and maybe extend to not announcing the 1s either on the lower dice, reducing the accuracy/reliability of my statistics. but maybe that's baseless?
Oh hey this website has polls! What do you guys think?
Should I track the stats for non-D&D seasons too?
Yes, you'll figure it out, and I would love to see their stats as well
No, it seems tricky and it's enough to just track the D&D seasons
Just give it a shot and then bail if it's not doable / statistically viable
As before I am only counting d20 rolls by the players, no other rolls and none by Brennan.
ALL ROLLS:
Similar spread to Fantasy High here, but a noticeably higher percentage of saving throws since our Vile Villains were fighting a lot of high-level spellcasters. No "other" rolls were made and only one Death Save was rolled — a nat 1 by Matt! This season is a shorter one, only six eps, so each roll counts for a higher percentage.
CRITS:
NOTE: This chart is tracking percentage of each player's individual rolls! It is not representative of raw numbers, but instead each column is relative to that player's total d20 rolls this season.
This chart includes the rolls made with advantage and disadvantage, so some of them didn't bear out narratively. No nat 20s were lost to disadvantage this season, but both the nat 1s Rekha rolled were with advantage so she dodged them!
Two of Matt's nat 1s happened on the same attack roll, because it was with advantage. It was also the very last roll of the season. His earlier attack roll that very same turn was a nat 20 though! What a truly wild turn.
SKILL CHECKS:
A somewhat different spread than the Intrepid Heroes here. Arcana checks are in the lead, followed by Perception, Athletics and Investigation. No History, Performance or Stealth checks this season.
ABILITY CHECKS & SAVES:
Not very many flat ability checks, but I do feel like I need to include them for posterity! The most frequent Saving Throw in Bloodkeep is Dexterity, and there are no Intelligence or Charisma saves. There weren't any INT saves in Fantasy High S1 either, so I'm weirdly excited to find out what the first one will be.
TRAPP'S ROLLS:
Almost half of Trapp's rolls this season are for J'er'em'ih the scream beast! (That tiny slice up top is an initiative roll for some summoned wargs.)
Also, five of Trapp's six total nat 20s are on J'er'em'ih's behalf and only one is for his own character. The adorable scream beast also gets two out of his three nat 1s, but one or two of them got erased by advantage. Let's be real though, we all wanted our J'er'em'ih to thrive, so we don't begrudge him those crits.
Hi!! This is so freaking cool!!! I love love love seeing charts and graphs and tables like these. Is your data gathering process just watching through and making notes of each roll type you’re tracking? Again, this is super awesome and I’m so excited to see more stuff from you!
Hi, thank you so much! Me too, and I'm so glad other people are interested. I'm working on Escape from the Bloodkeep right now and it's coming right up, but stuff got busy with me! (All good stuff though.)
Great question! Your guess is basically right. I am using the transcripts available on the Dimension 20 Wiki, scrolling through them for any mention of rolls or numbers (and re-living the season as a result, which is fun) but whenever I am unsure of a roll, I open the episode and watch it for myself to confirm.
For example, in one of the early episodes of Fantasy High Zac rolled a 20, and I couldn't tell from the transcript alone wether it was nat or mod. Usually it is stated out loud by the player, or Brennan, or one of the other players, but in this case it was not. When I watched it myself though, he stated that it was a 20 right away, without looking at his sheet, only the die, absolutely immediately and with a happy tone. I took a (pretty safe imho) educated guess and counted it as a nat 20. Later, someone else (I think Ally) got a nat 20 on something (I feel like it was initiative?) and Zac said "I got a 20 as well!" or something to that effect, confirming to me within reasonable doubt that he had probably meant a nat 20 that first time as well. I do try to take note of these logical assumptions in the spreadsheet though, just to keep myself honest. That way I could also remove the doubt factors later and see if they change anything.
It's also pretty common for Brennan to ask everyone to roll perception or something like that. Sometimes one of the players will not announce their roll, but I will still count it as a regular, non-crit roll. In these situations I presume that they did roll but it was a 7 or something and someone else had a 25 so they didn't feel like it added anything to vocalize that roll. In these cases, I also make a note of the fact that it was an unvocalized but presumed "everyone roll [skill]" type of roll. I do genuinely trust these comedians to report when they got a nat 1, because usually the outcome is funny or interesting.
I'm only really worried about missing the initative crits, because they may get edited out since they happen right at the end of the ep usually. I do feel like the editors are choosing to show when a player gets a 1 or a 20 or initative though, so it's probably fine. Kind of the caveat for this whole account is that I can't count rolls they don't announce. :Þ
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EDIT: Just realised I neglected a part of this question!
So yes, I do account for type of roll. The spreadsheet columns are: Season, Episode, Player, Die roll (1, 20, or / for other), Type of roll (Skill Check, Attack Roll, et.c.), Subtype of roll (Dexterity, Wisdom, et.c.), Advantage/Disadvantage (usually blank, sometimes either A or D) and then Other Roll for if they had advantage or disadvantage. The final column is Notes.
Sometimes I have to guess what kind of roll something is, for example if it's unclear wether something was perception or investigation and the player failed to specify. For these I tend to lean perception except with Murph, who has better investigation as Riz and always chooses it when he has a choice between the two. I also make note of these assumptions!
Hi!! This is so freaking cool!!! I love love love seeing charts and graphs and tables like these. Is your data gathering process just watching through and making notes of each roll type you’re tracking? Again, this is super awesome and I’m so excited to see more stuff from you!
Hi, thank you so much! Me too, and I'm so glad other people are interested. I'm working on Escape from the Bloodkeep right now and it's coming right up, but stuff got busy with me! (All good stuff though.)
Great question! Your guess is basically right. I am using the transcripts available on the Dimension 20 Wiki, scrolling through them for any mention of rolls or numbers (and re-living the season as a result, which is fun) but whenever I am unsure of a roll, I open the episode and watch it for myself to confirm.
For example, in one of the early episodes of Fantasy High Zac rolled a 20, and I couldn't tell from the transcript alone wether it was nat or mod. Usually it is stated out loud by the player, or Brennan, or one of the other players, but in this case it was not. When I watched it myself though, he stated that it was a 20 right away, without looking at his sheet, only the die, absolutely immediately and with a happy tone. I took a (pretty safe imho) educated guess and counted it as a nat 20. Later, someone else (I think Ally) got a nat 20 on something (I feel like it was initiative?) and Zac said "I got a 20 as well!" or something to that effect, confirming to me within reasonable doubt that he had probably meant a nat 20 that first time as well. I do try to take note of these logical assumptions in the spreadsheet though, just to keep myself honest. That way I could also remove the doubt factors later and see if they change anything.
It's also pretty common for Brennan to ask everyone to roll perception or something like that. Sometimes one of the players will not announce their roll, but I will still count it as a regular, non-crit roll. In these situations I presume that they did roll but it was a 7 or something and someone else had a 25 so they didn't feel like it added anything to vocalize that roll. In these cases, I also make a note of the fact that it was an unvocalized but presumed "everyone roll [skill]" type of roll. I do genuinely trust these comedians to report when they got a nat 1, because usually the outcome is funny or interesting.
I'm only really worried about missing the initative crits, because they may get edited out since they happen right at the end of the ep usually. I do feel like the editors are choosing to show when a player gets a 1 or a 20 or initative though, so it's probably fine. Kind of the caveat for this whole account is that I can't count rolls they don't announce. :Þ
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EDIT: Just realised I neglected a part of this question!
So yes, I do account for type of roll. The spreadsheet columns are: Season, Episode, Player, Die roll (1, 20, or / for other), Type of roll (Skill Check, Attack Roll, et.c.), Subtype of roll (Dexterity, Wisdom, et.c.), Advantage/Disadvantage (usually blank, sometimes either A or D) and then Other Roll for if they had advantage or disadvantage. The final column is Notes.
Sometimes I have to guess what kind of roll something is, for example if it's unclear wether something was perception or investigation and the player failed to specify. For these I tend to lean perception except with Murph, who has better investigation as Riz and always chooses it when he has a choice between the two. I also make note of these assumptions!
Hey, I’m obsessed with the calculations, but would you ever say how many nat 20s and nat 1s there were in total?
Oh for sure! Here:
46 total nat 20s, 45 total nat 1s!
Out of 1,032 total rolls, that means our intrepid heroes roll 20s on the die 4.47% of the time, and 1s 4.36% of the time. The average odds of rolling any number on a 20 sided die is 5%, so this is within extremely reasonable margin of error.
This chart includes ones rolled with advantage/disadvantage, so some of them were erased or dodged narratively.
I might make some sort of chart set based on crits lost to advantage and disadvantage, or achieved because of them? But I think I need to collect data on as many seasons as possible for that to be statistically signifigant (to the extent that this project has any signifigance lol).
I'm really glad some people are interested in this project! Shoutout to @d20stats, btw. Hope you're thriving!
Oh, @dimension20official I should probably let you know I exist! I'm a newly founded blog for Dimension 20 statistics. Hi! I have like 3 posts, so catching up is no sweat.
I feel SO VINDICATED by your research because I always thought to myself that Zac was really the Nat 20 king of D20 and I was right!
Yes! Literallyyy!
It's largely why I started this project, bc I was watching an old Adventuring Party and the gang were wondering about this bc @d20stats had posted something about Zac rolling the most crits. And like, he does just straight up roll so many dice and so often has advantage that I needed to know if it was just raw numbers, or if it was the most crits proportionally. And it turns out that it is just fully both. Most number of crits, highest percentage of crits. And then ofc Gorgug has like three attacks per turn, so he attacks the most often too!
We'll find out if he stays in the lead when I've calculated every season though. I'm excited to do weird inter-season math. Which Zac PC rolls the best? What percentage of Ally's crits are in the finale? Et.c.
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