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POLS 477

There are many things I learned and enjoyed over the course of this semester. One of the things that I enjoyed the most was the simulations. These allowed us to take a hands-on approach to our own learning; by researching relevant problem sets in regards to the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations. Preparation became increasingly difficult as the simulations went on, but by the end, we got to see how much we had grown in the process. The organic nature of these simulations was some of the most fun I have had in a classroom setting. Stemming from that, the lectures were also one of my favorite components of the class as well. Dr. Kohen is the most knowledgeable person I have ever met regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and I felt he represented each side from a nonbiased perspective. I also enjoyed the blogging assignments as a substitute for a final paper, because I feel that it has helped me learn more about what is going on in the world right now, in comparison to picking a single topic to write 15 pages on.

One thing that made the course difficult was the lack of powerpoint slides, simply because that is the lecture format I am most familiar with as a college student. Despite the lack of powerpoints, Dr. Kohen made up for this by making every lecture very engaging, and comical; almost like an informational standup comedian, it was great. It is hard for me to find anything negative to say about this course, other than not having a study guide for the final.

More violence in the Middle East coming?

German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel warned that a new wave of violence might erupt in the Middle East, unless the Israeli and Palestinian sides return to the peace process soon. He was quoted saying, “if we neglect this conflict, it could cause a new series of violence in the region of a kind we have not yet seen in the past few years.” He also says the peace process should not be dealt as “secondary” to the war against terror. I think Gabriel is on to something with this way of thinking. He is right in the sense that the longer it takes for the peace process to continue, the longer there is for something to go wrong and cause an uptick in violence, which would only continue to escalate in the absence of negotiations. He also may be right in thinking that the peace process should be put first, because it is possible that if peace is achieved, it would show that a serious effort is being made to bring peace to the region as a whole. While it definitely will not solve all of the problems, a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be beneficial to the region.

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20170425-germany-warns-against-new-wave-of-middle-east-violence/

Is Iran generating turmoil in the Middle East for its benefit?

Today, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, urged the council to take its focus off of Israel, Palestinians, Syria and Lebanon, which regularly turned into “Israel-bashing sessions,” and refocus on Iran. Haley stated that “Iran is using Hezbollah to advance its regional aspirations. They are working together to expand extremist ideologies in the Middle East.” Iran denies theses claims as a misleading propaganda campaign against Iran and its role in the region. However, this is a very real cause for concern, because if Iran is funding terrorist organizations to further destabilize the Middle East, Iran could be potentially seeking to use the turmoil to gain power in the region. It is difficult to think of another country that benefits more from turmoil in the region more than Iran, and if they are able to succeed in their endeavors it could have significant consequences for the United States and Israel, as they would pose even more of a threat than they currently do.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-un-idUSKBN17M2IK

Turkey, where no counts as yes.

Recently on April 16th 2017 the Turkish government passed a referendum that will greatly increase the current powers of controversial Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. However, the recent vote has not passed without extreme suspicion from the Republican People’s Party (the opposition), saying that the vote was rigged. In a report written by The New York Times claims that the opposition party formally asked Turkey’s electoral commission to recount the ballots, and another two major international observation missions have expressed a list of concerns over the irregularities during the campaign and on the day of the vote. According to one observer group said that 2.5 million votes are under question. The suspicions are as follows:

· Ballot-box stuffing

· A decision by the electoral commission, made during the vote itself, to significantly increase the burden needed to prove allegations of ballot-box stuffing.

· The barring of over 170 members of the Republican People’s Party members from participating in election observation.

· Temporary detainment of some international election observers, preventing them from fully observing election counts.

· Minimal “no” votes in an opposition stronghold in southern Turkey.

· At least one allegation of “no” votes being removed from ballot boxes.

This is significant, because Erdogan’s “yes” campaign won with 51.4% of the vote, compared to 48.6% of the votes were in opposition to the referendum. President Erdogan has rejected concerns, which he describes as “politically motivated” and that the referendum was the “most democratic election” of any Western country. Despite the very clear “political motivations” of why the opposition party wouldn’t want to expand Erdogan’s power, there is something very fishy about having to proclaim that it was the “most democratic election of any Western country.” Given Turkey’s human rights abuse history, the passing of the referendum leads Turkey and its citizens into very uncertain times. Hopefully President Trump soon realizes that this is not a time to congratulate Erdogan on his “victory.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/world/europe/turkey-referendum-is-haunted-by-allegations-of-voter-fraud.html

Trump Drops The Hammer

The United States just recently dropped the largest non-nuclear bomb in Afghanistan. This attack targeted a series of caves and tunnels being utilized by the Islamic State in eastern Afghanistan. This is coming a week after a U.S. soldier was killed in the same district where the bomb was dropped, while conducting operations against the Islamic State. President Trump described the bombing as a “very successful mission.” This was clearly another demonstration of Trump flexing the muscle of the U.S. military, after striking the Syrian airbase just a few days ago in response to Assad’s use of Sarin gas on his citizens. It seems that with each successful attack, Trump becomes more emboldened and could potentially over escalate a situation if he isn’t careful. However, it is clear that president Trump is proud of his chosen courses of action in the Middle East as he stated, “If you look at what’s happened over the last eight weeks and compare that really to what’s happened over the last eight years, you’ll see that there’s a tremendous difference.” This new strong armed approach in the Middle East could potentially lead to positive results (as anything is possible); however, it is much more likely to lead to further chaos in the region as we continue to flex our muscle at every turn.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-afghanistan-bomb-idUSKBN17F27U

Russia Threatens Force If “Red Lines” Are Crossed Again.

It is well known that President Trump claimed that he planned on completely removing the United States from middle eastern affairs. However, recently the United States thrusted itself back into the fold and attacked a Syrian airbase in response to Syria’s use of chemical weapons on its citizens that killed more than 80 men, women, and children. This is coming after Russia assured the United Nations that it had gotten rid of Syria’s chemical weapons, and is putting Russia in a tough spot as a supporter of Assad. After the United States attacked Syria, a joint statement was made by Russian, Iranian, and Assad-supporting forces that the attack had crossed a “red line” stating: “From now on we will respond with force to any aggressor or any breach of red lines from whoever it is, and America knows our ability to respond well.” I believe that this threat should not be taken lightly. This course of action has many major implications on the middle east, and around the globe. For instance, the attack on the Syrian airbase serves as a warning to North Korea that the new administration is not afraid to use force. The North Korean government even called the United States’ action as an “intolerable aggression.” Could these actions lead to a war between the United States and its allies, against Russia and its allies? Is Russia desperate enough to attack the United States after being embarrassed on the global stage?

http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-warns-of-real-war-with-us-in-syria-as-west-threatens-sanctions-2017-4

Trump teams up Sissi, but at the expense of human rights?

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi met with U.S. President Trump, which is reported to have gone very well. This is shown by the positive comments coming from both sides, such as Trump saying “I just want to let everybody know in case there is any doubt that we are very much behind President el-Sissi. He’s done a fantastic job, in a very difficult situation.” It is well known that the Obama administration had contentious relations with the Egyptian President, and this normally would be seen as a step in the right direction. However, not necessarily; it is speculated that the U.S. will not involve itself with any affairs regarding the Human Rights abuses that are taking place around the globe. This is likely to generate support for Trump amongst authoritarian governments, and it is likely that is what Trump is looking for rather than the moral high ground.

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/21753/why-many-in-the-middle-east-are-reserving-judgment-on-trump-for-now

Is The U.S. Increasing Its Involvement In The Middle East?

Despite the Trump administration voicing its desires to remove the United States from Middle Eastern affairs; it appears that is opposite from the truth, as the United States seems to be increasing its involvement. Recently, the United States has launched a number of airstrikes in Yemen, and has airlifted Syrian forces to front line positions to fight the Islamic State. However, it is said that United States involvement is not to fight, but instead bolster Syrian Arab and Kurdish forces in an upcoming battle for the city of Raqqa. As a part of its support role, the U.S. has also fired artillery and flew Apache attack helicopters in support of these forces. If the United States is in fact increasing its involvement in the Middle East, this could come as a positive as it prevents the creation of a vacuum that would be filled by either Russia or China.

http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/cae69a7523db45408eeb2b3a98c0c9c5/Article_2017-03-23-US--United%20States-Syria/id-435235968f784d498936e34705e87344

Israeli Airstrikes Target Iranian Arms Shipments

Israeli warplanes recently carried out airstrikes on a shipment of Iranian arms to Hezbollah guerrillas in Syria, and are likely to carry out more airstrikes in the future. These airstrikes reflect deepening Israeli concerns that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and their Lebanese ally are attempting to establish a front along the Golan Heights, which would pose a threat to the Jewish state. As tensions continue to mount, it becomes increasingly more likely that the aggressive positioning by Iranian and Hezbollah forces, or Israeli airstrikes could ignite a war that both sides claim they don’t want. However, Israel has signaled that it will not allow Iran to establish a permanent presence in Syria, nor permit Hezbollah to obtain advanced weapon systems such as; air-defense systems, anti-ship missiles and long range guided missiles. If both sides continue their current progressions, we can expect to see an increase in tension.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Voices/2017/03/27/Israels-airstrike-on-Syria-spooks-Middle-East/8681490628104/

China Reaching Deeper into the Middle East

Chinese President Xi Jinping has recently met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, where he expressed that China feels that peaceful coexistence with the Palestinians would be good for both sides. This is interesting, because China has typically played a minimal role in negotiating what happens in the Middle East. However, in relation to side projects that I have been researching, China has been increasing its relationships with countries in the Middle East in order to help establish its B&R initiative. This could be both harmful, and beneficial to the region in general, in the sense that increased Chinese influence provides a different angle of pressure to pursue a peaceful resolution. However, considering China’s history, it is hard to believe that they are acting benevolently; and is more likely that they are using the conflict as a way to ease themselves into the region politically, in an attempt to facilitate the establishment of their expansion goals. This is a critical time for the United States to re-establish itself within the region, as Russia and China attempt to fill the void that is being created by the U.S. desire to re-pivot its focuses elsewhere.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-israel-idUSKBN16S1OE

Russia Making Moves

Russia is extending its influence in the Middle East. Recently on March 9th he met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on the 10th he met with Turkish President Erdogan, and on the 14th he met with Libyan General Khalifa Haftar’s envoy in Moscow. Haftar has emerged as the most powerful leader in Libya since the civil war started in 2011. This all comes at a time where the United States is contemplating playing a lesser role within the region, and it is clear that Russia is capitalizing on the opportunity. If Russia establishes a firm relationship with Haftar, Libya would then be under Russia’s sphere of influence along with Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, and Egyptian president Abdel Fatah al-Sisi; all of which are authoritarian governments. At the moment, these seem to be some risky bets on the side of Russia trying to prop up these regimes. However, if Putin is successful it could greatly upset the power dynamic in the region. It would be interesting to know what type of intelligence Russia is receiving, and to know what their overall goal is.

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Russia-digs-its-tentacles-further-into-the-Middle-East-484148

israelne-blog

Hamas doesn’t hate Jews?

In light of our discussions in class today, I have been thinking more about Hamas claiming not to be Antisemitic. I think Israel and Palestine were dancing around this issue without actually addressing it as a questionable statement and almost accepting the assertion.

This isn’t the first time that Hamas leadership has claimed to not be Antisemitic. The claim that they don’t hate Jews, they just hate their actions ought to be questioned. To draw a comparison to something that is said in the US “don’t hate the sinner, hate the sin.” How can we expect Hamas to actually mean what they’re saying when they are anti-Zionist and hate what the Jews do because of the threats to their existence? I understand not wanting to be oppressed, but there is something different about what Hamas wants.

Throughout their history and recently Hamas leaders have said very clearly antisemitic things. In January: “My brothers, know that people, stones, and trees all hate [the Jews]. Everyone on Earth hates this filthy nation, a nation extrinsic to Mankind. This fact was elucidated by the Quran and the Sunna,” Abu Ras said.

It does not appear reasonable to accept this assertion by Hamas with the context of their histor.

polisci477-blog

I think what you bring up is interesting. To me, it doesn’t seem like Hamas is putting any actual weight behind what they are saying. Instead, I argue that they’ve just decided to play the game smarter. Hamas likely realizes that it’s bad press to have your organization’s charter declaring war on the Jews; but instead now they have found a loophole, and are declaring war on the occupation. However, this means that they will still never be able to recognize Israel’s existence; sure, they recognize it by de facto in their agreement on the 1967 borders, but they will never be able to do so publicly. This to me says a lot about their intentions, it says that they’re not willing to give up their armed struggle, and that they’re just trying to make their efforts more digestible in the world’s eye. By previously labeling Israel as the occupation, it made them out to be the aggressors, but when Hamas declares war on the Jewish community as a whole, it turns them into the aggressors. Now that they have changed the wording in their charter, they can pursue the same objectives that are just worded a little differently.

Iran’s S-300 missile defense system is operational

Iran has recently reported that it has successfully completed a series of tests of its new missile defense system, and has declared it as operational. The S-300 is an older system that is unable to detect stealth technology, but is still very good against third or fourth generation combat aircraft, which constitutes a large majority of Israel’s air force. This missile-defense system was delivered by Russia last year, after a previous deal had been stalled due to United Nation Security Council sanctions that barred the sales of advanced weapons to Tehran. However, these restrictions were lifted last year when Iran signed the nuclear deal in July 2015. This situation creates a tense environment, as Israel is worried that Iran will violate the international accord aimed at preventing it from developing nuclear weapons. But with Israel expected to receive two full squadrons of F-35s (which are able to fly without being detected by the S-300 radar) by 2022. These new F-35s should ensure Israeli superiority in the region for the next 40 years.

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Iran-News/Israel-eyeing-Irans-test-of-Russian-S-300-missile-system-483270

Russia and China Protect Syrian Government from Sanctions

Syria has recently been accused of carrying out chemical attacks on its own citizens. However, UN investigations have found that the Syrian government has carried out three chemical weapons attacks in 2014 and 2015. These reports say that Syrian air force helicopters had dropped chlorine gas on rebel-held areas, twice in March 2015, and once in April 2014. Russia and China have both vetoed a UN resolution to impose sanctions on Syria over the alleged use of chemical weapons. This is the seventh time that Russia has protected the Syrian government by vetoing a UN Security Council resolution; and China has vetoed six Security Council resolutions on Syria, since the civil war began. This comes at a time where the United States government is planning on leaving its seat at the UNHRC (United Nations Human Rights Council). These scenarios should prove to the US government that it needs to keep its seat, and continue its efforts to stop, or punish these horrible actions. America over the last decade has been the only major power to act in a more benevolent manner, rather than just its own interests. If powers such as Russia and China continue to protect countries that take place in such human rights abuses, while America steps off the stage, it could potentially lead to human rights abuses occurring more frequently.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39116854

Syrian Civil War and Secondary Relationships

Secondary relationships formed as a result of the Syrian civil war, will likely influence the future of the Middle East greater than the civil war itself. These secondary relationships are in the form of alliances and rivalries that have developed between Russia and the United States, as well as local powers like Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. One of the relationships that have been put to the test so far, is the one between Turkey and Iran, who are both deeply suspicious of the other’s motives. It is also important to note that the United States ever since the Trump administration took control of the White House, the U.S. has been largely absent from the conflict, and seems to be content with leaving the reigns in Russia’s control. President Trump has also said recently that Washington shouldn’t be involved in regime change in other countries, and declined to say whether or not the U.S. will continue to provide assistance to the rebels. This web of different alliances and rivalries is going to be an interesting power struggle in the coming future, especially if the U.S. continues to make the decision to sit out on this one. I say that because, for the most part the United States under the last administration has attempted to take on more benevolent policies towards other countries. Whereas, there is no illusion that Russia is going to act in its own interests 100% of the time; and giving them the reigns to manage the conflict, could create some very interesting circumstances.

http://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-1.773974

Iran the Destabilizing Force in the Middle East

According to Aljazeera.com, Saudi Arabia has recently made allegations that Iran has been propping up the Syrian government, developing ballistic missiles, and funding separatists in Yemen. At the Munich security conference, Saudi Arabia demanded that Iran be punished for these actions. Saudi foreign minister, Adel al-Jubeir described Iran as a destabilizing force in the Middle East, and the main sponsor of global terrorism. Along with these claims, Israeli defense minister Avigdor Lieberman said that Iran’s ultimate objective is to undermine Saudi Arabia, and he called for talks between Israel and Arab countries to defeat “radical” elements in the region. This call for talks on the Israeli side comes at an interesting time, because if they are successful at rallying other Arab countries against Iran, it could take the focus off of their settlement scandal, and turn it onto Iran. If these allegations are true, how with US President Donald Trump respond to the issue? Will this be the start of a new proxy war, and will Israel be willing to take up arms with Saudi Arabia? If talks occur, and this scenario does play out, we could be seeing a major shift in the relationship dynamic within the Middle East.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/02/iran-accused-undermining-middle-east-security-170219175742394.html

Trump and His First Steps in the Peace Process

At a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on 02/15/17, President Donald Trump suggested that he would be willing to support either a one-state or a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. After he made the statement “I like the one that both parties like,” the Israeli media jumped on the bandwagon of the idea that he might support a single-state solution to the conflict. However, this doesn’t seem to be the likely situation, as in a video clip, he mentioned that in order to make a deal happen both sides would have to make some concessions. Though I think that saying he supports whatever deal the two parties would agree on (since I think that just about everyone would agree to that) is a copout answer; it doesn’t change the fact that he is right, and both sides are going to have to make some concessions. This also has proven that he is not necessarily as pro-Israel as many assumed that he would be in the beginning.

http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Trumps-imprecise-message-on-Middle-East-peace-481824

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