The biggest news of the week was the Fed's decision "to extend the average maturity of their securities holdings," and "reinvest principal payments on its holdings of agency debt and agency securities backed by mortgages agency mortgage-backed securities. " These measures are intended to reduce interest rates in the long term and likely spur a new round of mortgage refinancing. For a discussion of the impact, see Jim Hamilton operaciónLa Fed torsion effects definitely scared investors by adding the word "significant" to the description of the risks to the downside. August phrase "downside risks to the outlook have increased" was changed to "significant risks to the downside for the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets." (Emphasis added). As Tim Duy said: "The downside risks are now" significant "and we can thank the Europeans for that." Once again the financial crisis in Europe was in the front pages. And once again the story seemed to change from day to day. Earlier this week there were reports of progress in negotiations with Greece, and later in the week there were reports less optimistas.En the U.S., talk of a possible relapse into recession continue to grow, but the published data last week still indicates slow growth. Housing construction will be a little more in August, but are mostly moving sideways. Architecture Billings Index was positive for the first time in five months. Existing home sales rose in August, although sales will probably be reduced in September. And the initial weekly jobless claims are still high, but fell ligeramente.He here a summary charts: • Sales of existing homes in August: 5.0 million Sarre, 8.5 months reported suministroLa NAR: August home sales rise despite headwinds, with force a year ago figure Click for larger image in gallery gráfica.Este graph shows existing home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) 1993.Las base from August 2011 sales (5.03 million SAAR) were 7.7% more than last month and 18.6% above the rate in August 2010 (depressed expiration in August from 2010 tax credit). The chart above shows year after year (YoY) change in the existing housing stock and reported month of the offer. Since the inventory is not seasonally adjusted, so it really helps to see the change from the previous year. Note: Months of supply is based on sales and seasonally adjusted seasonally unadjusted inventario.Inventario decreased by 13.1% year on year in August from August 2010. This is the seventh straight month of year decrease in the supply inventario.Meses fell to 8.5 months in August, compared to 9.5 months in July. This is much higher than normal.Esta is a graph of existing home sales not seasonally adjusted (NSA). The red columns are for the year 2011.Las sales are above the NSA in August - by Of course, sales fell sharply last year after the tax credit expires in June 2010 - but sales are also above August 2008 and 2009 (before revision). Housing starts fell agostoEste • graph shows total unit and only starts from home starts 1968.Total 571 000 were in (SAAR) in August, up 5.0% from July revised rate of 601,000 (revised from 604). A single family starts declined in January , 4% to 417,000 in agosto.Hubo a sharp drop in housing construction after the housing bubble, and housing construction has been moving mostly sideways for about two and a half years - with slight ups and downs because of the tax credit begins comprador.Multifamiliares are increasing in 2011 - albeit from a very low level. This was below expectations of 592,000 starts in August, but allows an increase in August, suggesting a slight increase for the start in September. • AIA Architecture Billings Index becomes positivoDe AIA Architecture Billings Index becomes positive after four straight monthly descensosNota: This index is a leading indicator of new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) inversión.Este chart shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index rose to 51.4 in August from 45.1 in July. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for services arquitectos.De according to AFP, there is an "approximate nine to twelve months lag time between architecture and turnover of the construction costs" in the nonresidential construction. Therefore the contraction suggests further declines in CRE investment in early 2012, but possibly flattening of 9 to 12 months (data for only one month). • Moody: Commercial real estate prices increased julioDesde Bloomberg: Commercial real estate prices U.S. increased 5% in July, says Moody Below is a comparison of the Moodys / REAL Index of commercial property price (CPPI) and the Case-Shiller composite index 20. Beware the "Real" in the title - this index is not adjusted inflación.Los CRE prices only go back to December 2000. The Case-Shiller Composite 20 index is blue residential (with the December 2000 to 1.0 to align the indexes). According to Moody, CRE prices are up 1.2% from a year ago and up 42% from the peak in 2007. Part of this increase was probably the season - also this index is very volatile because there are relatively few transactions. Furthermore, this report was in July, and the index is likely to be weaker in August after the discussion of the debt ceiling and renewed fears about Europe. • Initial Jobless Claims a slight decrease in 423.000El below shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000 (there is a long-term chart graphic in the gallery). The Labor Department reported: "In the week ending 17 September, the seasonally adjusted figure advance for initial claims was 423,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the revised figure of 432,000 the previous week. The moving average of 4 weeks was 421,000, an increase of 500 from the previous week, revised average of 420,500. "The dotted line on the chart is the current average of 4 weeks. The four-week average of weekly jobless claims rose to 421,000 this semana.El four-week average has increased recently, and this is the highest since early July. • Residential remodeling index new high index julioEl Residential Remodeling of BuildFax in July was 130.4, compared to 129.5 in June. This is based on the number of tensile properties allowing residential construction in a month determinado.Este is the highest level for the index (since 2004) - even above the levels from 2004 to 2006 during the equity home ("home ATM") boom retirada.Nota: Permissions are not adjusted for the value, so this does not mean that there is more money spent, more fair activity permit. In addition, some smaller remodeling projects are carried out without permits and the index actividad.A lose that although the new home construction is still moving sideways, it seems that the other two components of residential investment will increase in 2011, multifamily construction and home improvement. • ... • economic histories of FOMC Statement: to extend their maturity, reinvest in the agency mortgage-backed securities • Fed Study: Lack of home equity and changes in warranty refinancing in 2010 • From Freddie Mac: Fixed-Rate Mortgages Hold Steady, remain near record minimum • From MarketWatch: August economic indicators signal weak growth • NAHB index of builder confidence fell slightly in September Philadelphia Fed • Decrease State Coincident Index in August • Department of Transportation: Vehicles Driven miles decreased 2.5% in July compared to July 2010 5 Comments: On 09/20/2011 11:03 PM fmtrading said ... He pointed out an article on another blog re the economy housing figures on Tuesday that "Building permits have surpassed the completion of construction for six consecutive months." (In: http://econintersect.com/wordpress /? p = 13415 - I hope your OK to link in other parts of the comments here, if not, apologies). Combined with data architecture Billings Index seems that there are good signs of life for construction. 09/21/2011 at 5:23 a.m., geoih said ... After three years of the predictions of imminent economic recovery, which has not appeared, with monetary and fiscal policy remains the? Same, why any logical person that this prediction will be more accurate At 09/21/2011 8:07 a.m., morganovich said ... and yet the mortgage purchase index is new levels not seen since the mid 90's and has over 60% off the peak. On 09/21/2011 11:54, Benjamin said ... We have to nominal GDP led by the Federal Reserve. At 9/22/2011 9:09 a.m., VangelV said ... MP: The increase in August sales rate architecture was the largest monthly increase in four years index, and forecasts of an increase in construction spending in the spring. Here we go again. You have all sorts of negative signs and collect a check suggests that things will be much better. Well if the idiots in Congress actually pass a law to create an infrastructure bank would expect more of the construction activities. But that does not mean that the real economy will improve or build roads to nowhere politically directed, is a good idea. Post a comment Links to this post:
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