David Doel is a Canadian videographer who has previously dabbled in left of center politics up north. He has a well regarded YouTube channel called The Rational National. In the episode above, he describes the astonishing turnaround in Canadian politics over the past few months. Actually, astonishing is one of the milder words which could be used.
Just three months ago Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) was sinking in the polls. The LPC in some polls was below 20% – even sometimes losing second place to the New Democratic Party (NDP). The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) was in the mid to upper 40s – putting them on track to form a majority government after the next federal election. CPC leader Pierre Poilievre was probably picking out new curtains for the prime minister's office.
Then along comes Donald Trump. His tariffs, bellicose statements, and threats to the sovereignty of Canada sent shockwaves through Canadian politics. Pierre Poilievre, who has been seen as Trump friendly or soft on Trump, saw his party's popularity sink. And when Justin Trudeau announced his resignation, Poilievre was deprived of his political scapegoat. When Trudeau was replaced by Mark Carney as Liberal leader, the Liberals got a bounce which made Poilievre's situation even worse.
This is from the latest poll by Angus Reid, an established and respected pollster. The colors are somewhat different in Canadian politics than in the US. See the key at the bottom.
So on Christmas Eve, the Liberals were at a miserable 16% while the Conservatives were coasting at 45%. NOW the Liberals are 5 points ahead of the slumping Conservatives.
Canada does not have proportional representation. Its system largely mirrors that of the UK. So let's look at a province by province seat projection for the next parliament from 338Canada.
So instead of sinking in quicksand, the Liberals may be on track to form a majority government – an improvement over their current status. And there's still some room for improvement over their projected 177 seats.
If you were ever tempted to take an interest in Canadian politics, there has probably never been a better time to start than now.
Parliament returns next week. The most likely dates for an election are April 28th or May 5th. Anything short of a Conservative win would likely be interpreted as a slap in the orange face to Trump.
EDIT: A couple of very recent news stories from the CBC which illustrate the attitudes of the two main parties.
Carney signals he's in no rush to speak with Trump after visit to U.K., France
Conservatives won't allow reporters to travel with Poilievre during upcoming election
Prime Minister Carney just got back from a trip to Europe where he met with the leaders of Britain and France. But he's not in a hurry to see Trump. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are barring the media from their campaign planes and buses; like Trump they shun transparency.
