#4th turning

[mamdouh-elhowety]

نظرية ابن خلدون في الدولة

١- الايام الصعبة تُخرج رجالا أقوياء

٢-  الرجال الاقوياء يصنعون الرخاء 

٣-  الرخاء يُخرج رجالا ضعفاء

 ٤- الرجال الضعفاء يتسببون بأيام صعبة  

[theessentialamerican]

PREVIEW Forty nations can meet. They can issue statements. They can demand compliance. None of that changes the outcome. Because the Strait does not respond to pressure. It responds to risk.

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[theessentialamericancitizen]

Wars that weaken domestic legitimacy can undermine national power even if they produce battlefield success.

Republic-First Realism

[theessentialamerican]

Wars that weaken domestic legitimacy can undermine national power even if they produce battlefield success.

Republic-First Realism

[theessentialamericancitizen]

The Fourth Turning is a very important time for the United States right now. It is marked by significant change and the impending collapse of the current order. People are starting to think this collapse is not just a possibility but will happen. Strategists need to figure out what this impending collapse means and develop plans to help them start over. It's important to understand how things work during this time. It is important to identify the patterns that define this period of change as the country navigates problems and uncertainty. Strategists need to make plans that put civic renewal, national unity, and strategic independence at the top of their list of priorities. These things will help build a strong base for the spring and the start of a new American cycle. A new era can begin if we make plans that prioritise cooperation, understanding, and respect for sovereignty. This proactive approach is necessary to address the challenges of a world that is always changing and ensure that the United States can adapt and thrive in the future. Now is the time to act, because the country's future depends on accepting change and making things better.

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[theessentialamerican]

The Fourth Turning is a very important time for the United States right now. It is marked by significant change and the impending collapse of the current order. People are starting to think this collapse is not just a possibility but will happen. Strategists need to figure out what this impending collapse means and develop plans to help them start over. It's important to understand how things work during this time. It is important to identify the patterns that define this period of change as the country navigates problems and uncertainty. Strategists need to make plans that put civic renewal, national unity, and strategic independence at the top of their list of priorities. These things will help build a strong base for the spring and the start of a new American cycle. A new era can begin if we make plans that prioritise cooperation, understanding, and respect for sovereignty. This proactive approach is necessary to address the challenges of a world that is always changing and ensure that the United States can adapt and thrive in the future. Now is the time to act, because the country's future depends on accepting change and making things better.

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[vulgartrader]

Flashback: Social Scientist Predicted ‘Peak Instability’ Beginning in 2020

Our longtime readers may remember we posted this back in 2017 in a similarly titled, Evolutionary Biology Prof: We Will Reach Peak Instability Around 2020:

Turchin is a cyclicalist, believing that historical events tend to occur in cycles, much like the often discussed 4th Turning hypothesis. In that theory, the post war period of the mid-1940s to about 1965 represented a spring period of history, new growth and unmatched stability and conformity. After 1968, the economy began to falter, the dollar was being devalued, and debts were rising (thanks LBJ), but it was still summer, a period of prosperity. Fall can best be represented by the 1990s. A widespread feeling of ineffectualness and futility is present. The 4th Turning, represented by winter, probably began in earnest in 2008, but who can say for sure? Maybe it’s just beginning now.

He concluded back then:

Our society, like all previous complex societies, is on a rollercoaster. Impersonal social forces bring us to the top; then comes the inevitable plunge.

Summarizing his ideas in this June 2020 piece BigThink.com writes:

So, while the U.S. is going through a tense period, it may only be just the beginning of a larger crisis. Turchin even told Time that it's possible that tensions "may escalate all the way to a civil war."

Looking more likely as time goes on, but probably won’t materialize for another 10 years. The 2020s is going to be a hellish decade for sure.

[ridiculousvikingstuff-blog]

(via The Kids Are All Left)