Woke up to this article today and my TL looked like:
Arrow is moving to Thursday nights at 9 pm next fall for their sixth season. Reactions varied from chill to... not. Do I think this is a bad thing? No, I don’t.
Allow me to preface this post by saying this: I’ve been talking about Arrow’s ratings and The CW network since I started this blog. Long before there was ever a ratings drop, my opinion was that The CW has a different business model than the other networks. If you cannot accept that The CW’s profitability is not based on live ratings, then this is not the blog for you. You don’t have to take my word for it. Stephen Amell confirmed it at HVFF Chicago. Mark Pedowitz has spoken about it. I’ve done my research on this folks. They are structured differently than the Big Four. It’s just facts. (X)
Yes, I was surprised by the move mostly because I had grown complacent about Arrow on Wednesday night. Wasn’t expecting it. I am no expert, but I’m happy to share my thoughts. I’ll talk about what I like about the move. Then we’ll shift to concerns.
What I Like
The 9 pm slot
Praise Jesus! We are on at a later time. THIS IS FABULOUS. Arrow has always been a darker and grittier show, especially when you compare it to The Flash and Supergirl. A 9 pm slot loosens the grip Broadcasting Standards and Practices has on the show. It can be more violent and sexier simply because the kiddos go to bed. I sincerely hope Arrow is able to push the envelope more, even if it’s ever so slightly.
Supernatural Pairing
I do not watch Supernatural, but I am THRILLED Arrow was paired with it. These shows were paired before (2015 Arrow S4/Supernatural S11) and I believe it was successful. Supernatural and Arrow have very similar demographics, so they’ve always seemed like a natural fit to me.
Honestly, how The CW pairs their shows has always been quite a head scratcher to me. Arrow and Frequency? HUH? The pairings for next year’s fall line up feel the most logical in years. The only one I’m really side eyeing is Valor after Supergirl (Really?). All the other show pairings feel similar in demographic and content, which just makes more sense to me if you are trying to maintain/build on audiences.
Supernatural is a strong show. It’s been on 12 years. It’s moved 8 times. I think if God invented an 8th day and The CW moved it there but didn’t tell a soul, the Supernatural fans would find it. This fandom is as loyal as they get. Their ratings have held pretty steady over the course of 12 seasons, which in of itself is impressive. A move is always tough on any television show, simply because your audience needs to follow it to the new night. So, I am extremely happy Arrow’s lead in is an anchor show for the network, who has already proven themselves on Thursday nights, and comes with a built in audience that is similar to Arrow’s.
Thursday Night
This is primarily for selfish reasons. I teach faith formation on Wednesday nights, but I am wide open on Thursdays. So, Arrow on Thursdays just works better for my schedule. lol I can live tweet more.
The Concerns
This Is Us
Yes, I am well aware that This Is Us is moving to Thursdays at 9 pm. This seemed to be the primary concern. That the live ratings mammoth that is This Is Us will send Arrow into a ratings death spiral and it will get canceled. Sigh. No. Just... no.
Name one show on The CW that is in the ballpark of This Is Us numbers? Name one show on The CW that is in the live ratings ballpark of any show that airs on the Big Four? See, this is where this whole “How in holy Moses is The CW profitable?” question really starts to matter. It doesn’t matter what show The CW puts in that time slot. They’ll all get creamed. lol The CW isn’t concerned about Arrow going head to head with This Is Us. They don’t operate on a mano e mano strategy for live ratings... because they lose.
This Is Us has to prove successful on Thursday. There can be a tendency for hit pilot shows to suffer a sophomore slump in ratings. This Is Us is moving to the toughest night on television. It has the break to contend with too when NBC starts airing football. I’m not really worried about any of this. I think This Is Us will do great and kick serious ass. I’m expecting every show that goes up against it will take a live ratings hit.
Is This Is Us going to take enough of Arrow’s viewers to send it into some ratings death spiral so The CW is forced to cancel because it’s become abysmally unprofitable? Doubtful.
I do think the shows target different demos as Mark Pedowitz said. Now before you start screaming at me, “I WATCH THIS IS US AND ARROW” that’s great. So do I. I love them both. Except, I’m not a Nielson family so it doesn’t really matter that I watch both.
The CW’s demographic is primarily female. The reasons why Arrow and The Flash were so appealing to to The CW was because it allowed them to branch into the other half of the population more - the male demo. That’s who The CW needed to target for their market to grow. Now, before you start screaming at me, “WOMEN WATCH ARROW AND MEN WATCH THIS IS US” yes thank you. I am aware. I am quite sure This Is Us will take some of Arrow’s audience, but this is not new territory for me. Blindspot was up against Arrow this year. It had to lose some audience to Blindspot given how similar the demos are. I’m not certain the demos are as different as Pedowitz claims, but he’s probably got numbers I don’t. The question is how much will This Is Us take? That is the X factor. I don’t have male/female demographics on either show, so how the shift all shakes out is unknowable. Am I worried? NO.
As I discussed in my most recent ratings post, I don’t know what the live ratings/profitability ratio is for The CW but even with a 30% drop in ratings Arrow is nowhere near their danger zone. The Originals is averaging a .30. It’s going into Season 5. Reign was at the same average when it was renewed for a fourth and final season. We've got a long ways to go. Arrow is still the #4 performer for the network.
The CW is focused on streaming. Netflix kids. That's where they make their money. The more seasons they have to sell to Netflix the more money they get to make. This includes complete series that viewers can binge start to finish. They also want their series to hit 88-100 episodes. They aren't trying to make money off the live broadcast run. They are focused on syndication deals. Arrow has a syndication deal with TNT. This all means The CW is focused on LONGEVITY.
Even if This Is Us sends Arrow into another ratings dive – I don’t think it goes anywhere. Stephen Amell is signed for 7 seasons. I feel confident we’re going 7 folks. Whether or not we go longer remains to be seen, but I think that has a lot more to do with Stephen Amell than it does with This Is Us. If Arrow ends in S7, I'm not remotely prepared to call that a series failure. Nor should you.
The CW is trying to kill Arrow
There seems to be a concern that The CW is trying to kill Arrow by moving it to Thursday and putting it up against This Is Us.
Thursday is not the night shows go to die. That would be Friday. (Jen pats Blindspot). Although, even that mentality is starting to change. I think The CW would rather move a low rated show to Friday, especially if it has a loyal fanbase and strong social media presence, instead of cancel it. Friday keeps many shows alive, which means more streaming opportunities!
I guess the thinking on this one is because Arrow suffered a 30% drop The CW wants to cancel it and this is how they push it out. Again, I disagree. This is The CW not Fox. They try to keep series going, not intentionally torpedo them.
Also, Marc confirmed that their streaming is UP. So, it’s possible whatever loss Arrow is suffering in live they are making it up in streaming. The audience is just shifting. We don't have any specific numbers, but for all we know, this could be a wash. My bet is The CW is nowhere near as unhappy with Arrow's numbers as people presume they are. Especially, if their numbers are up in the medium The CW is TARGETING.
Thursday
So why is Arrow getting moved off its comfortable Wednesday night show to one of the toughest nights in TV?
The Vampire Diaries was The CW's Thursday solid 8 pm performer for years. They've always struggled to find a solid 9 pm. Nikita, The Secret Circle, Beauty and the Beast, Reign, The Originals, Riverdale – none of them cut it. Then once TVD moved to Fridays, Legends of Tomorrow failed to gain traction in TVD's old spot. You know what's moved back and forth to Thursdays a lot over the years? SUPERNATURAL. Something I noticed - each one of these failed Thursday night shows were pretty buzzy their first season. Arrow generates buzz.
Look guys, they had to put something there. The CW doesn't have a lot of new shows this season which means one of the returning series has to move to fill up the slots. Supernatural proved successful this year on Thursdays. So, if you look at the board – Arrow makes the most sense to pair with it. Also, after 5 seasons, Arrow is still one of their strongest performing series (#4 ain't bad). I think The CW put two of the longest running series, with a loyal fan base, to a night where they've been looking for two solid performers for awhile.
I also don't think WHEN The CW schedules their shows matters as much as other networks because, you guessed it, streaming.
That said, Arrow did suffer a 30% drop this year. That's not insignificant. Meanwhile, Supernatural had a minimal drop. Maybe the time has come for Arrow to stop being the lead in series and get a little support. I'm okay with that. Its certainly carried their own weight.
Why not just put Supernatural on Wednesday like they did last year? Well, that still leaves Thursday as wildly problematic, but maybe the answer is Fox? Fox went with soapier programming this year on Wednesday with Empire and Star. So, I think The CW answered with Riverdale and The Dynasty reboot. That’s that's just a guess though. I also think they wanted a new night for Riverdale. They seem invested in that series, the network just made an Archie comics deal, and probably wanted to find a more successful night for it than Thursday. Supergirl is a solid Monday performer. The Flash/LOT pairing is working great on Tuesday. That leaves Wednesday. And... Arrow suffered a drop. The door was open.
Supernatural makes a bad lead in
Ehh... I just disagree with this. 12 years is a long time and I don't have enough knowledge about Supernatural. I certainly understand if fans prefer Supernatural at 9 pm, but I think it has switched between 8 and 9 just as much as it has moved nights. I think Riverdale was sighted as this example. Honestly, I think that has more to do with my previous complaint about The CW's penchant for terrible pairing. What on earth do Riverdale and Supernatural have in common? I’m not surprised the audience didn’t carry over. I don't lay the blame at Supernatural's door. I stand by my positives for Supernatural being the lead in.
The Crossover
This move breaks up the crossover. Honestly, I don’t think a network can plan their entire schedule around one episode a year. Also, I think the fanbases for the DC shows are pretty loyal. They’ll follow the crossover conclusion to Arrow on Thursday night. I don’t see a day drastically changing numbers, but I guess we’ll see. Even still, one episode a season does not make.
I'm sure I've missed other concerns, but I took my best shot. My advice would be to stop worrying about Arrow's cancellation and just enjoy the show - no matter what night it is on.
This is for the Q&A on Wednesday: Do you think Arrow will be renewed for another season? The CW hasn't announced renewals yet but shouldn't they have by now? It seems like ratings have been on the decline since Season 3 and the overall storyline has been uneven. Do you think it will come back and if it does, will it be the last one?
Yes. It will be renewed. I have no doubt about a Season 7. Stephen has repeatedly said he’s signed for seven years and the ratings are absolutely in the renewal range. Please keep in mind nobody at the CW really gives a crap about live ratings. They are all about streaming which means completed series they can sell to Netflix. The streaming numbers are never published btw. So we don’t see the numbers Pedowitz cares most about.
I’m confident whenever the end is decided the writers will have plenty of time to write towards a satisfactory conclucsion. The CW announces their renewals early (January) or late (March/April). They are adding Sunday to their line up and have a lot of pilots in the hopper. I’m sure they are just trying to settle what they are going to pick up and what not. None of the CW shows are renewed yet. It’s fine. Don’t worry about it for a single second.
Will Season 7 be the last? I don’t know. I am absolutely okay if it is though. I’ve seen too many shows stay too long at the dance *cough*VampireDiaries*cough*. Dragging the show out for the sake of a few more bucks isn’t worth it to me.
