Are Francis Bacon’s works increasing in value?
Marta Inez Rodrigues Pereira
Roberta Okura
The highest value ever paid for a painting at auction was achieved last November with the record sale of Francis Bacon’s triptych 'Three Studies of Lucien Freud' for US$ 142.4 million at Christie’s New York.
'Three Studies of Lucien Freud' (1969) sold at Christie’s New York in November 2013 for US$ 142,405,000 premium; size 198.0 cm x 147.5 cm (77.95 in x 58.07 in) each
This month another of his paintings, 'Portrait of George Dyer Talking', sold for US$ 69.3 million at Christie’s London. That was a new record for Francis Bacon, considering it is a single panel painting.
'Portrait of George Dyer Talking' (1966) sold at Christie’s London on February 2014 for US$ 69,325,568 premium; size 198.2 cm x 147.3 cm (78.03 in x 57.99 in)
Now, it would be natural to suppose that the artist’s works are increasing in value and that the art market is going wild. The question is whether this is real or not. So we took a quick look at auction results for Bacon’s paintings over the last years to see what the trends looked like.
Number of lots sold, unsold and withdrawn
Average annual premium price* adjusted for inflation** with and without the four “exceptional” paintings
* Average annual premium price– this is a rough calculation simply taking the average premium price of all lots sold in the year, not considering any other characteristic or condition of the paintings
** Premium price adjusted for inflation – prices were adjusted for the US $ inflation using the International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013 and taking 2014 as base value
Analysis per period of years:
2000 – 2006: Few works negotiated and values not exceeding US$7.7 million
2007 – 2008: The boom years - 2007 saw a sharp rise in lots negotiated and a steady increase in average sale value (to US$ 10.7 million), an ongoing trend since 2003; in 2008 the spell was broken and the number of sold lots dropped, but prices doubled to an annual average of US$ 22 million;
2009 – 2010: The market was depressed - only two lots taken to auction each year, of which only one was sold;
2011 - 2012: More lots sold and stable sale values
2013: Record sale of 'Three Studies of Lucien Freud'
2014: the year has just started, but already we have seen three lots sold at the February contemporary art sales in London.
Overall, excluding the period affected by the economic crisis (2009-2010), we can note slight evidence that the average price for Bacon’s paintings is increasing.
However this first analysis includes some record sale prices like the fabulous 'Three Studies of Lucien Freud', for example. What if it was just an outlier, a work that for some odd reason (maybe excellent quality) fetched much more than the rest?
See what happened when we excluded from our graph this and another three top price paintings: 'Portrait of George Dyer Talking', 'Triptych' and 'Study for Innocent X'.
'Triptych' (1976) sold at Sotheby’s New York on May 2008 for US$ 86,281,000 premium; size 198.0 cm x 147.5 cm (77.95 in x 58.07 in) each
'Study for Innocent X' (1962) sold at Sotheby’s New York on May 2007 for US$ 52,640,000 premium (assuming 12% commission); size 198.1 cm x 142.2 cm (78.00 in x 56.00 in)
Now we see that 2013 turned out to be a rather poor year, reaching a much lower average price for Bacon’s paintings compared to the years before. This evidence shows that the prices for “average” Bacon paintings, i.e. excluding “top works”, are in fact decreasing.
The same declining tendency in average prices seems to be taking place in the first auction results of 2014, but it has to be emphasized that it is still early to say what the average prices will be for the year.
So, are the prices for Francis Bacon’s works really increasing? Apparently not, maybe it’s just an effect of exceptional paintings coming to the art market. Let’s wait and see what 2014 will bring.