It took some oblique wording, but Saudi Arabia made a last-minute decision to sign deal that marks departure for Cop
Dawn was breaking over the Amazonian city of Belém on Saturday morning, but in the windowless conference room it could have been day or night. They had been stuck there for more than 12 hours, dozens of ministers representing 17 groups of countries, from the poorest on the planet to the richest, urged by the Brazilian hosts to accept a settlement cooked up the day before. Tempers were short, the air thick as the sweaty and exhausted delegates faced up to reality: there would not be a deal here in Brazil. The 30th UN climate conference would end in abject failure. The sticking point was fossil fuels. As science has told us for well over a century, the carbon dioxide that burning them produces is heating up the planet, now to dangerous levels. But in more than 30 years of annual climate meetings, the need for that to halt has been mentioned only once – in a resolution made two years ago, at Cop28 in Dubai, to “transition away from fossil fuels”. Delegates from the Arab Group of 22 nations, from Russia, and from a sprinkling of others, were determined it would not happen again. A growing number of countries, however, were equally determined that progress on this was urgently necessary. They had come up with a plan, which was gathering more and more support, and they made it clear they were prepared to dig in. Meanwhile, developing countries desperately wanted to move forward on securing the money that would help them cope with the already disastrous impacts of extreme weather. By the early hours of Saturday, some delegates were ready to walk out and force a collapse. “It was on the edge for us,” said Ed Miliband, the UK energy minister. “I was prepared to walk away.” The breakthrough, when it came, was with Saudi Arabia. Soon after 6am, Miliband and the EU climate commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, split from the main group to hold a private conversation with the chief Saudi negotiator, Khalid Abuleif. They pressed on him wording that would obliquely recognise the global commitment to “transition away from fossil fuels” made two years ago in Dubai. Rather than explicitly namecheck fossil fuels, it would refer to “the UAE consensus”, the name given to the Cop28 deal. Khalid agreed to take it away and reflect. Ministers around the room held out little hope – Saudi had been obdurate all night. An hour later, he returned. To great surprise, the wording was accepted. The room collapsed into relief. Applause rang out. The deal was done.
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The Paris Cop in 2015 was supposed to be a breakthrough, yet here we are about to zoom past 1.5C above preindustrial levels on our way to 2.6C, so you can understand my scepticism.
