I don't think this is a year that the Lakers are preparing for a championship. I think the next year is sort of a transitional year. That doesn't mean it can't be fun. We could see some crazy moments on the Nash, Pau & Kobe farewell tour. Pau and Kobe have high seats amongst the pantheon of great Lakers players, and Nash is one the most important players of the last twenty years or so of NBA players, so watching what might be his last year could be great.
Of course, he's still under contract for a few years, and Pau and Kobe could very well re-sign with the Lakers next year, but I wouldn't be shocked to see them all say farewell at the end, based on how they looked last season.
I'm indifferent towards Dwight Howard. I think he's pretty close to healthy right now and we might see a Renaissance season from him. But the drama surrounding him is so old. And I think attempts to post him up have been distractions to the Lakers offense, and I don't think I can take another year of him demanding to be posted up without showing any signs of continuing to work on his post game. If he wants to go back to the pick and roll I'm more than happy to see him featured again, but the only thing he talks about is the post. If he stays the Lakers will be a better team, if he leaves, it's one less headache to deal with. I don't think it really matters all that much since the Lakers are not a contender right now and him staying or going doesn't change that. The only way his presence matters is how it affects the Lakers future rebuilding efforts.
Which is what I really want the Lakers to focus on. I don't want them to get involved with any long term deals this year, I don't want them to add Blake Griffin or Asik or any of these whacky Dwight Howard sign and trades that I've heard mentioned that don't make the Lakers a contender now, and undermine their ability to chase free agents in the future.
If Dwight re-signs, the Lakers will have (if the salary cap stays close to what it is now) $28 million to spend in 2013. That's two sophomore maxes (what I refer to as the first max contracts available to guys who graduate from their rookie scale contracts) or one full-sized max and a good roleplayer or two. The Lakers could potentially in one year completely reload and contend again.
If Dwight Leaves, the Lakers will have $49 million in cap space-almost an entire team's worth-and could sign three sophomore max guys or two full-sized max guys, and surround them with some pretty decent roleplayers to boot. This is an exciting possiblity.
Of course, building this way is hard. Even with a lot of money to throw around, it's difficult to get guys to sign max contracts to join skeleton teams, even in LA (even if Nash plays his contract out, those are going to be pretty barren teams). The idea that the cream of the crop of free agents will flock to LA for the weather or endorsements is a myth. The Lakers had trouble spending their money post-Shaq and had a lot of guys say no. It wasn't until Bynum started to emerge and the Lakers started to get good that guys wanted to play for them. Furthermore, the idea that guys get better endorsements in LA is a myth. Yes, the Lamar Odoms, Derek Fishers, Ron Artests of the world get endorsement opportunities they never could have dreamt of in a small market. But guys on a Durant, Rose and Lebron James level are already squeezing the advertisers for every penny they're worth, and being in LA would not cause a big enough bump to make up for the money they would lose by leaving their current team.
Speaking of James, let's not delude ourselves, this attempt to clear money is all about Lebron James. And I think the fantasy Mitch is having right now is next year the Heat lose in the playoffs in some embarrassing fashion; Wade has a falling-out with James or retires; Kobe and Pau both agree to minimum contracts, and Lebron joins the Lakers to team up with Nash/Kobe/Pau/Howard. And it's my fantasy too. But the reality is that Lebron and Wade's relationship will probably stay fine, the Heat will probably at least play in the finals again and probably win another one, and that the prospect of joining the Lakers, even with a full max contract on the table, will not be all that enticing. Keeping Dwight does probably improve the Lakers chances of landing Lebron, but that improvement might be from "near impossible" to "prohibitive longshot." We probably won't see Lebron in a Laker jersey any time soon.
I have enough trust in Mitch Kupchak though, to believe that he has one or two eggs he's kept safely out of the Lebron basket. Having all that money to spend doesn't mean they have to go the Knicks route, and keep saving money year after year and missing out on free agents over, diminishing the legacy of a proud franchise. What it does do is give the Lakers the opportunity to start collecting assets (some of which may be in the form of contracts that look pretty bad) and transitioning into a team that's young and exciting. This is how the Lakers can best position themselves aquire the future disgruntled small-market star down the line.
Wow, that digression was long. But anyway, my main hope for LA is to not trap themselves in any long term contracts this season, while building a team that will be fun to cheer for to send our legends off right. There is a chance that Kobe doesn't play, and that the Lakers trade Pau, and that the team is awful next year. But I'm just going to focus on the positive possibilities.
I am slightly interested in the possibility of guys like Manu or Paul Pierce ending up free agents and possibly ending up in Los Angeles on cheap contracts, however I'm not holding my breath for or either of these things. And I just want the Lakers to do them because I think it would make a fun team and would add to the "veterans saying goodbye" theme I expect for next year. I don't think it would turn them into a contender.
Of course, I didn't really think the Mavs were contenders when they won. A bunch of things fell their way, and they had the right team to capitalize on it. I think if the Lakers don't do anything drastic, then they have the same sort of chance, and don't have to do anything that might sink them into a deep dark hole for the long future. Because I'm a Laker fan. I like watching them win titles, and don't know how to handle myself over a long rebuilding process. And I don't want to find out.
