March 21, 2026
Trump asserts every position possible on his war against Iran
March 21, 2026
Robert B. Hubbell
In quantum mechanics, the concept of “superposition” holds that before a particle is measured, it exists as a probability wave covering all possible locations in the universe. (Stick with me; I have a point.) When the wave of probabilities becomes entangled with another wave, a particle “pops into existence” in a particular place. Until then, the particle is merely the sum of all possibilities that it will exist somewhere in the universe.1
Over the last week, Trump achieved the political equivalent of superposition. He took every possible position regarding his war on Iran:
It’s over; it’s not over.
We won; but not enough.
We’re winding down; we need $200 billion more to continue the war.
It might be over soon; we might put “boots on the ground” soon.
Iran’s military capability has been obliterated; we must send in the US Navy to protect ships from Iran’s ongoing military attacks.
The US doesn’t need the Strait of Hormuz because we are energy independent; US allies are obliged to keep the Strait open to lower US gas prices.
We obliterated the Iranian nuclear capability in June of 2025; the US attacked in March because Iran was a week away from using a nuclear weapon against the US.
The increase in gas prices isn’t a big deal; I knew it would be a big deal, but I am surprised it isn’t a bigger one.
The price increases aren’t that bad; Americans should be willing to sell one of their kidneys to put food on the table.2
At some point, the sum of all possibilities covered by Trump’s lies will collapse into a definite reality that he cannot spin. We will invade, or not. We will declare victory and cease hostilities, or not. We will withdraw the vast US armada and air force from the Middle East, or not.
Trump’s lies will eventually bump up against reality and manifest as definite outcomes—stopping the shifting, contradictory, never-ending possibilities he spins to conceal his rising panic and sweaty palms.
Indeed, to a significant extent, the wave of Trump’s lies is collapsing around him. The average national price of gasoline in the US has already risen by nearly $1 per gallon — roughly 30% — in the 21 days since the war began. Thirteen members of the US military have been killed. More than two hundred have been wounded. The US has lost two fighter jets, one refueling plane, and consumed a substantial portion of the US military’s precision-guided missiles. Trump’s illegal war cost $16.5 billion in its first 12 days.
But the US is not the only nation to suffer casualties and losses. Per NPR,
Iranians killed: More than 1,200 civilians
People killed in a strike on an Iranian school: At least 165 civilians
Iranians temporarily displaced: Up to 3.2 million
People killed in Israel: 12 civilians, 2 soldiers
Gulf State deaths: At least 16
Percentage of Americans against the war: 56
The overall opposition to the war is worse than it looks: 74% of voters oppose sending U.S. ground troops into Iran, including 52% of Republicans. Quinnipiac University Poll, U.S. Military Action Against Iran: Over Half Of Voters Oppose It, 74% Oppose Sending Ground Troops Into Iran.
I do not know whether Trump will send “boots on the ground” to occupy Iran’s Kharg Island—a strategically located export hub for 96% of Iran’s oil, located 300 miles north of the Strait of Hormuz. But the clear pattern to date has been that if Trump amasses military assets, he uses them. That pattern bodes ill for the likelihood of US “boots on the ground in Iran” soon.
Indeed, White House insiders have told Axios that a US ground invasion of Kharg Island is under serious consideration. See Axios, Trump mulls risky Kharg Island takeover to force Iran to open strait.
Given that Trump is willing to say anything and everything to avoid answering questions about his war against Iran, we have no reason to believe anything he says. Objectively, the war has spiraled out of control because Trump refused to heed the advice of his senior military commanders.
Trump may be talking about “winding down” even as the US sends more troops and ships to the Middle East, but it does not matter what the US will do. The relevant question is how Iran will respond. And, for now, Trump appears to have no idea how Iran will respond to a cessation of the war.
As a result of the war, Iran has seized control of the Strait of Hormuz and is now demanding “payments” from certain ships in exchange for safe passage. See Lloyd’s List, Iran establishes ‘safe’ shipping corridor for approved and paid for transits. Trump has managed to elevate Iran to the position of the de facto landlord of the Strait of Hormuz—a landlord who can pick and choose his tenants and charge whatever rent he wants.
There is no universe in which Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz can be described as a “victory” for the US, its allies, or even most of its enemies. The big winners are Iran and Russia. If that was Trump’s objective, he succeeded wildly. But in doing so, he has imperiled the financial and national security of all Americans. Why any Republican would vote to give Trump carte blanche to conduct the war is a central enigma of our time. Vote them all out—every last one!
Concluding Thoughts
There were additional significant developments on Friday, but Jill and I are on a weekend “astronomy” vacation (her Christmas present to me). We will be participating in a stargazing event under dark skies in the desert. (Yes, we will be safe; we have hired a professional guide who specializes in events at the chosen location. Although the daytime temperature was 107 degrees today, the evening temperature is 80 degrees.)
Two of the most significant events on Friday concern press freedom. A federal judge ruled that the Pentagon’s restrictions on media access to Pentagon briefings are unconstitutional. See The Hill, Pete Hegseth Pentagon press policy unconstitutional, rules federal judge. And CBS announced significant layoffs in its news division. See CNN, CBS News lays off 6% of staff and shutters radio division, kickstarting a Bari Weiss-led overhaul.
The decimation of CBS News is shameful, as is the Pentagon’s efforts to muzzle journalists. But no matter how much Trump attempts to avoid reality by making shifting, contradictory claims to conceal his rising panic and sweaty palms, reality is a stubborn thing. Sooner or later, reality manifests itself in ways that cannot be denied.
We are watching the dissolution of the Trump regime in real time. We are part of the process that is causing that dissolution. We should do everything in our power to accelerate the process. A good place to give a not-so-gentle nudge is next Saturday, No Kings Day 3.0.
See you in the streets!
[Robert B. Hubbell Newsletter]
