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Macro Matters: USD Rising Wedge
Macro Matters: USD Rising Wedge
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Macro, USD, Gold, Oil Talking Points:
The highlights on this week’s economic calendar look to be an RBNZ rate decision tomorrow afternoon, followed by US data on Wednesday and Thursday (Durable Goods, PCE); and Friday closes the week with Germany inflation. (Learn how to read and use the economic calendar)
While new coronavirus cases continue to rise both in the US and globally, the risk…
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US Recession Watch, April 2020
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US Recession Watch Overview:
Recession odds are rising once again, no surprise due to recent jobless claims data around the coronavirus pandemic. The 3m10s spread is currently 54.5-bps; onthe last day of November it was 22.1-bps.
But recession odds may be artificially low: there is an 18% chance of a chance of a recession hitting the United States within the next 12-months, according to…
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Gold Prices Maintain Sideways Range Despite Plunge in Gold Volatility
Gold Prices Maintain Sideways Range Despite Plunge in Gold Volatility
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Gold Value Speaking Factors:
Fed rate of interest minimize odds, as measured by Eurodollar contract spreads, are at their lowest degree since Could 30.
Gold volatility, as measured by the Cboe’s ETF, GVZ (which tracks the 1-month implied volatility of gold as derived from the GLD ETF choice chain) is at its lowest degree since June 19.
Retail dealer positioningcontinues to warn of a…
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Gold Prices Proving Resilient During Correction as Gold Volatility Drops
Gold Prices Proving Resilient During Correction as Gold Volatility Drops
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Gold Value Speaking Factors:
Gold volatility has pulled again considerably in current days, however gold costs haven’t fallen as a lot as the gold volatility contraction would indicate.
Gold volatility, as measured by the Cboe’s ETF, GVZ (which tracks the 1-month implied volatility of gold as derived from the GLD ETF choice chain) has fallen by almost -25% over the previous week.
Re…
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Top 5 Occasions: February UK GDP & GBPJPY Price Outlook
Top 5 Occasions: February UK GDP & GBPJPY Price Outlook
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Speaking Factors:
– The February UK Industrial Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing, and GDP are due on Wednesday at 08:30 GMT.
– Consensus forecasts anticipated UK industrial and manufacturing manufacturing to have contracted in February, and for GDP to come back in flat.
– Retail merchants have began shopping for the Canadian Greenback, with USDCADnet-shorts having risen…
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Top 5 Events: March US Nonfarm Payrolls & EURUSD Price Outlook
Top 5 Events: March US Nonfarm Payrolls & EURUSD Price Outlook
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Talking Points:
– The March US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls report is due on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
– Markets are expecting the weak February print of 20K to be a one-off; consensus calls for 170K.
– Retail traders are selling the US Dollar, despite significant gains over the past week-plus.
Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMTfor the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top…
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US Dollar Techs, Fundamentals at Odds; Important Day for Gold
US Dollar Techs, Fundamentals at Odds; Important Day for Gold
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Speaking Factors
– The technical construction for the DXY Index has improved in latest days, however as we speak’s financial information upset considerably, handicapping US Dollar positive factors.
– Equally, the US-China commerce negotiations have seemingly reached one other deadlock, offering a contemporary lifeline for protected haven property just like the Japanese Yen and Gold.
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After FOMC, US Dollar Holds Losses While Gold, Japanese Yen Outperform
After FOMC, US Dollar Holds Losses While Gold, Japanese Yen Outperform
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Speaking Factors
– The January FOMC assembly paved the best way for a brand new notion concerning the trajectory of charge hikes in 2019, boosting threat urge for food and propelling greater yielding and excessive beta belongings to the topside.
– While it’s commonplace to see each Gold and the Japanese Yencarry out effectively side-by-side, it’s odd that US fairness markets have…
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