the zambian investment series: copper deeper
where zambia stands today: in 2025, zambia produced 890,345 metric tonnes of copper — an 8% increase from 2024, the second consecutive year of growth. the increase was led by konkola copper mines — a 366% surge to 80,215 metric tonnes following its IRH recapitalisation — and mopani, up 40%. the mimbula mine commenced production in 2025, delivering 8,183 metric tonnes in its first year.
the 3 million tonne ambition: the government target — 3 million metric tonnes by 2031 — would more than triple current production, place zambia among the world's top three copper producers, and fundamentally alter zambia's fiscal position and role in the global copper supply chain.
the investment pipeline — approximately $10 billion in committed investments: first quantum's $1.25 billion kansanshi S3 expansion. barrick gold's $2 billion lumwana super pit — expected completion 2028, ahead of schedule as of august 2025. the $600 million sinomine kitumba project in mumbwa — open-pit mining commenced april 2025, production from 2026. kobold metals' mingomba mine — identified through AI-powered geological analysis — in active development with ivanhoe's western forelands exploration programme covering 7,757 km².
the exploration boom: 2,375 mining licences issued in 2025 (9.2% increase). CHRAGS aerial geophysical survey reached 51.7% national coverage by end of 2025, with full coverage expected july 2026.
the challenges that are real: reaching 3 million tonnes from 890,000 in six years requires capital of $17.6-33 billion. electricity of approximately 6,000-9,000 GWh per year. ore grades declined from historical 2% to current 0.5% copper content. the lobito corridor's zambian section must be operational in time to carry the new production.
the demand case: the IEA estimates global copper demand of approximately 30 million tonnes annually by 2040 for net-zero. EVs contain ~83kg of copper compared to ~23kg in a conventional vehicle — a 260% increase. zambia's 3 million tonne ambition is a supply response to structural demand growth the clean energy transition makes inevitable.
the zambian investment series continues. 🇿🇲💰