#investmentseries

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the zambian investment series: the LuSE

what the LuSE is: the lusaka securities exchange — established in 1993 as part of the economic liberalisation and privatisation programme of the chiluba era. a regulated marketplace for equity and debt securities.

listed companies (approximately 22 as of mid-2026): zambia sugar (ZSUG), zanaco (ZANACO), lafarge zambia (LAFZ), standard chartered bank zambia (SCBL), and ZCCM investments holdings (ZCCM-IH) — giving investors equity exposure to zambia's copper sector.

the investment case: (1) valuation — frontier-market multiples mean quality businesses acquired at prices reflecting risk premiums rather than fundamental earnings power. (2) economic exposure — the most direct capital markets exposure to zambia's domestic economic growth. (3) dividends — several listed companies have historically paid favourable yields. (4) strategic positioning — a frontier market most global investors have not yet reached.

the liquidity challenge: daily trading volumes are a fraction of what institutional investors consider adequate. limited free float. imperfect price discovery. high transaction costs. exit at scale constrained.

the LuSE is not yet the capital market that zambia's economy warrants. it is on an upward trajectory. the zambian company listed today at frontier-market valuations may be the regional champion of tomorrow.

the zambian investment series continues. 🇿🇲💰

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the zambian investment series: special economic zones

what a SEZ is: in zambia's terminology, a multi-facility economic zone (MFEZ) — a geographically defined area where different commercial regulations apply. introduced in 2005 through JICA technical assistance. seven functional SEZs: five MFEZs and two industrial parks.

the zones: chambishi MFEZ (copperbelt, 3,692 ha) — 38 companies, over billion in cumulative investment, 20,000+ jobs, home of the CNMC chambishi copper smelter. lusaka south MFEZ (government-owned, 2,100 ha, 600MW ZESCO substation, 80MW solar — UN ECA best practice model november 2025). lusaka east MFEZ (520 ha, near KKIA). jiangxi MFEZ (chibombo, central province, 2,088 ha). ZCCZ MFEZ (500m from lusaka international airport). total: .6 billion in cumulative investment, 20,000+ jobs.

the incentive package: zero percent corporate income tax for the first five years. zero customs duty on raw materials and capital equipment. zero VAT on supplies to the zone. accelerated capital allowances. single-window licensing.

the honest assessment: challenges in attracting diversified industries; concentration of chambishi's success in mining and smelting rather than downstream manufacturing; limited technology transfer; slow uptake in some zones. real, functional, and improving — but closing zambia's economic diversification challenge requires more than SEZs alone.

the zambian investment series continues. 🇿🇲💰

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the zambian investment series: the mining fiscal regime

the historical volatility: zambia's mining fiscal regime is a history of changes — from post-independence nationalisation, through privatisation concession agreements regarded as too generous to investors, through the 2008 windfall tax introduction and rapid reversal, through the 2014 royalties-only regime and its 2015 reversal. the framework has been in almost continuous negotiation.

the current regime (2025-2026) following the 2024 minerals regulation commission act: mineral royalty rates — 5% on most base metals, sliding scale for copper of 4-10% based on copper price. corporate income tax: 30%, with 0% withholding tax on dividends — designed to encourage reinvestment.

the export duty episode: a 15% export duty on copper concentrates was introduced by SI no. 88 of 2024, supposed to take effect january 2025 — revoked by february 2025 following industry outcry. the speed of the reversal illustrated the central tension: the government's legitimate aspiration to capture more of the copper value chain, running directly into the investment community's requirement for fiscal predictability.

the record mining tax revenue: EITI reporting shows mining taxes reached a record USD 1.9 billion in the most recently reported year — an 11% increase, despite lower overall copper production and prices.

the stability agreements: the most commercially significant feature — development agreements and stability provisions in the IRH/KCM, kobold metals, FQM kansanshi S3, and barrick lumwana super pit frameworks protect investors from specific fiscal changes for defined periods.

the investment series' assessment: the mining fiscal regime in mid-2026 is more stable, more transparent, and more investor-friendly than at most points in the previous two decades. the export duty episode was a reminder that the political economy of mining taxation in zambia is never fully settled.

the zambian investment series continues. 🇿🇲💰

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the zambian investment series: agriculture deeper — the irrigation investment case

the gap in full: zambia has approximately 42 million hectares of potential agricultural land. only 6-7 million hectares currently cultivated. only approximately 423,000 hectares — 5-7% of irrigable land — is under irrigation. the rest depends entirely on rainfall, limiting most smallholder farmers to one crop per year.

the return: a smallholder on a rain-fed hectare produces approximately 2-3 tonnes of maize in a good year — and significantly less in a poor year, as the 2023-2024 el niño demonstrated (up to 40% yield reduction). the same farmer with reliable irrigation can produce a second dry-season crop between may and september — doubling productive use of the same land.

three irrigation investment models: (1) nucleus-outgrower — a large commercial farm with irrigation infrastructure serves as nucleus for surrounding smallholder outgrowers. nakambala sugar estate is the most successful example in zambia's agricultural history. (2) community irrigation schemes — government or development partner-funded infrastructure managed by a water user association. (3) individual solar-powered drip irrigation — small-scale precision systems allowing individual smallholder farmers to irrigate without large-scale network connection.

the batoka gorge connection: the most common barrier to irrigation adoption is not the absence of water but the absence of electricity to pump it. every megawatt added to zambia's generation capacity is a megawatt that could power irrigation pumps.

the investment opportunity: the land exists. the water exists. the market exists and is growing. what is missing is the specific capital investment in water delivery infrastructure — canals, pipes, pumps, solar panels — that converts theoretical potential into actual production.

the zambian investment series continues. 🇿🇲💰

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the zambian investment series: the diaspora investor

who the zambian diaspora investor is: not the international mining company or multilateral development bank. the diaspora investor is a professional — a doctor, engineer, accountant, technology worker — who has left zambia to work in the UK, south africa, US, canada, or botswana, who has accumulated savings in a higher-income economy, and who maintains a deep emotional connection to zambia through family and cultural identity.

three characteristics making them specifically interesting: information advantages — first-hand knowledge of zambia's infrastructure, regulatory environment, and specific opportunities. risk tolerance for zambia that purely financial investors may not have. network access — school, family, and professional networks in zambia giving deal flow and implementation support formal channel investors do not have.

what diaspora investors are already doing: zambian diaspora remittances fund school fees, medical care, and small business working capital. beyond remittances, diaspora professionals are making direct investments — in property (most common), small business equity, and increasingly in zambia's formal capital markets. the dot com zambia IPO attracted strong diaspora-eligible retail participation — the infrastructure through which diaspora capital can participate without requiring physical presence.

the three investment opportunities most suited to diaspora capital: residential property in lusaka, kitwe, and ndola. SME equity — relationship-based, informed, patient capital that early-stage zambian businesses need. LuSE and structured financial products — the GEM portal and mobile-accessible platforms making formal market participation progressively easier from abroad.

the policy gap: the government's diaspora investment policy is less developed than its FDI promotion framework. a specific diaspora investment promotion strategy — modelled on frameworks that kenya, ghana, and india have developed — would convert zambia's diaspora from a remittance economy into an investment economy.

the diaspora investor is zambia's most underutilised source of first-mover capital. they know the country. they believe in it. they are waiting for the infrastructure to make investing easier.

the zambian investment series continues. 🇿🇲💰

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the zambian investment series: copper deeper

where zambia stands today: in 2025, zambia produced 890,345 metric tonnes of copper — an 8% increase from 2024, the second consecutive year of growth. the increase was led by konkola copper mines — a 366% surge to 80,215 metric tonnes following its IRH recapitalisation — and mopani, up 40%. the mimbula mine commenced production in 2025, delivering 8,183 metric tonnes in its first year.

the 3 million tonne ambition: the government target — 3 million metric tonnes by 2031 — would more than triple current production, place zambia among the world's top three copper producers, and fundamentally alter zambia's fiscal position and role in the global copper supply chain.

the investment pipeline — approximately $10 billion in committed investments: first quantum's $1.25 billion kansanshi S3 expansion. barrick gold's $2 billion lumwana super pit — expected completion 2028, ahead of schedule as of august 2025. the $600 million sinomine kitumba project in mumbwa — open-pit mining commenced april 2025, production from 2026. kobold metals' mingomba mine — identified through AI-powered geological analysis — in active development with ivanhoe's western forelands exploration programme covering 7,757 km².

the exploration boom: 2,375 mining licences issued in 2025 (9.2% increase). CHRAGS aerial geophysical survey reached 51.7% national coverage by end of 2025, with full coverage expected july 2026.

the challenges that are real: reaching 3 million tonnes from 890,000 in six years requires capital of $17.6-33 billion. electricity of approximately 6,000-9,000 GWh per year. ore grades declined from historical 2% to current 0.5% copper content. the lobito corridor's zambian section must be operational in time to carry the new production.

the demand case: the IEA estimates global copper demand of approximately 30 million tonnes annually by 2040 for net-zero. EVs contain ~83kg of copper compared to ~23kg in a conventional vehicle — a 260% increase. zambia's 3 million tonne ambition is a supply response to structural demand growth the clean energy transition makes inevitable.

the zambian investment series continues. 🇿🇲💰

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the zambian investment series: the lower zambezi

what the lower zambezi is: approximately 4,092 square kilometres in the zambezi valley, stretching along the south bank of the zambezi river from chirundu eastward to the mozambique border. faces zimbabwe's mana pools national park — a UNESCO world heritage site — across the river, together forming one of africa's largest and most ecologically integrated wildlife areas.

the wildlife experience: built around the river. canoe safari — paddling silently through hippo pods, watching elephant drink from the bank, drifting past crocodile on sandbars — is the park's signature activity, an experience that cannot be replicated anywhere else. one of the premier tiger fishing destinations in africa. excellent dry-season lion, leopard, and wild dog encounters on the narrow floodplain.

the location advantage: chirundu — the park's western entrance — is approximately 130km from lusaka by tarred road, about two hours. the park's main lodges are one to two hours further on dirt roads. total travel time from lusaka: three to four hours by road, or 45 minutes by light aircraft from wilson airport. the most accessible of zambia's major national parks.

the investment opportunity: a small number of ultra-premium lodges (USD 500-1,500 per person per night) occupy the park. below this ultra-premium tier, there is essentially nothing — no mid-range lodge, no quality permanent camping, no self-drive accommodation accessible to the growing domestic southern african leisure traveller market.

a quality mid-range lodge or permanent tented camp in the lower zambezi would enter a market with essentially no competition at its price point, with a wildlife product already proven as world-class, and with the proximity to lusaka that makes the mid-range domestic and regional traveller market commercially viable.

the fishing market: a dedicated fishing camp at an accessible price point would address a specific demand the current supply does not meet at scale.

the lower zambezi is not undiscovered. it is the most accessible of zambia's world-class safari destinations. the investment opportunity is in democratising access to a product the ultra-premium market has validated.

the zambian investment series continues. 🇿🇲💰

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the zambian investment series: zambia's water endowment

the scale: zambia has the third largest freshwater resource in africa. four major river systems — zambezi, congo-luapula, kafue, and chambeshi — and their tributaries give zambia one of the most water-secure catchment areas on the continent.

water as a production input: zambia has approximately 423,000 hectares under irrigation — 5-7% of its total irrigable potential. every hectare brought under reliable irrigation can produce two crops per year, is insulated from drought vulnerability, and generates the yield levels that make commercial processing economically viable.

water as an energy source: approximately 80% of zambia's installed electricity generation capacity is hydropower. the batoka gorge hydropower project — a planned 2,400MW facility on the zambezi — would nearly double zambia's current generating capacity and eliminate the energy deficit the load-shedding crisis exposed.

water as a tourism asset: the zambezi is arguably zambia's most commercially valuable single tourism asset. the lower zambezi national park's flood-season canoeing, dry-season game drives along the riverbank, and tiger fishing. lake kariba's houseboating experience. the bangweulu wetlands' black lechwe and shoebill stork sightings.

water as a development prerequisite: approximately 46% of the rural population lacks access to safely managed drinking water — not because water doesn't exist nearby, but because the infrastructure to safely deliver it hasn't been built.

the strategic asset case: the world is entering an era of water scarcity. climate change is redistributing rainfall and increasing drought frequency. in this context, zambia's position as the holder of the third-largest freshwater resource in africa is a strategic asset whose value increases as water becomes more scarce globally.

zambia has the water. the investment case is in using it.

the zambian investment series continues. 🇿🇲💰