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Stocks Signal the Start of the Intermediate Cycle Decline
Pre-Summary Stocks entered their Daily Cycle Low timing band on Day 30, but the more important development came when they closed below the lower daily cycle band. That signal ended the daily uptrend and marked the beginning of both a daily downtrend and the Intermediate Cycle Decline. Stocks printed their lowest point on Day 30, placing them in their timing band for a Daily Cycle Low (DCL).…
Oil Finds Support at the 10-Week MA
Pre-Summary In our July 13 article, we discussed Oil as it reclaimed the 50-week moving average and outlined the evidence needed to identify the next Intermediate Cycle Low. Since then, Oil has reclaimed the 10-week moving average and is beginning to find support above it, but a weekly close above the 10-week moving average is still needed to signal the Intermediate Cycle Low. We discussed Oil…
Gold Reclaims the 10-Day MA
Pre-Summary Gold has reclaimed the 10-day moving average after forming a swing low, building evidence that the current decline may have reached its Daily Cycle Low. At the time of this writing, a close above the 10-day moving average is still needed to signal the Daily Cycle Low. As we discussed previously, Gold has entered the Daily Cycle Low timing band and outlined the evidence needed to…
Stocks Begin Their Daily Cycle Decline
Pre-Summary Stocks rejected resistance near 7575 last week, forming a swing high before closing below both the 10-day and 50-day moving averages. The daily cycle has now entered its declining phase, shifting attention toward where the next Daily Cycle Low (DCL) will develop. Stocks reached resistance near 7575 last Wednesday before forming a swing high on Thursday. Friday’s close below both the…
Bonds Signal a Daily Cycle Low, but the Downtrend Remains
Pre-Summary Bonds signaled a Daily Cycle Low this week, but the daily downtrend remains intact. This chart demonstrates why a new cycle does not automatically signal a new trend. The decline extended into Day 39 before bonds formed a swing low and closed back above the 10-day moving average. That combination signaled Day 39 as the Daily Cycle Low. Although a new daily cycle has begun, the…
The Dollar Resumes Its Hunt For The DCL
Pre-Summary Earlier this week, the Dollar appeared to have signaled its Daily Cycle Low after breaking above the 10-day moving average and the declining trend line. Wednesday’s decline changed that framework, extending the daily cycle instead. Thursday’s rally eased the parameters for forming a new swing low, leaving the Dollar hunting its Daily Cycle Low once again. Earlier this week, we…
Oil Attempts to Signal the Intermediate Cycle Low
Pre-Summary Oil printed its lowest point on Week 28 and has since begun to recover. This week’s rally has carried price back above the 50-week and 200-week moving averages, providing the first evidence that an Intermediate Cycle Low may be developing. However, additional confirmation is still needed before Week 28 can be labeled as the ICL. Oil printed its lowest point on Week 28, placing it in…
Dollar Signals the Daily Cycle Low
Pre-Summary Saturday we noted that the Dollar had been consolidating below the 10-day moving average while holding above the 100.56 support level. Monday’s breakout above the 10-day moving average and the declining trend line provided the evidence needed to signal the Daily Cycle Low. An equally important lesson is how the Daily Cycle Low migrated from Day 25 to Day 31 as the consolidation…
