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The Dollar Forms a Failed Daily Cycle. Are the Weekly and Yearly Cycles Next?
Pre-Summary The dollar has formed a failed daily cycle. The next question is whether that weakness begins changing the longer-term picture. The dollar ran into resistance above the 101.60 level on Tuesday, Day 9. Wednesday’s swing high and close below the 10-day MA signaled the daily cycle decline, with the Day 9 peak favoring a left-translated daily cycle. Thursday delivered bearish…
BTC Finds Support, But the DCL Still Awaits Confirmation
Pre-Summary Bitcoin has rallied from support and is working to complete a Daily Cycle Low. One signal is still missing before the DCL can be labeled. Bitcoin printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 27, placing it within its Daily Cycle Low (DCL) timing band. Price found support at the 50-day MA, formed a bullish reversal on Tuesday, completed a swing low on Wednesday, and is continuing to…
Stocks Wait for a Daily Cycle Low Signal
Pre-Summary Stocks have entered the Daily Cycle Low timing band and formed a swing low. However, a swing low alone does not signal a Daily Cycle Low. A close above the 10-day MA is still needed to complete the signal. Stocks have now entered the timing band where a Daily Cycle Low (DCL) is expected to form. Last week, the market also formed a swing low, providing the first piece of evidence…
The Dollar Consolidates Above New Support
Pre-Summary The Dollar is consolidating after breaking above the important 101 resistance level. This pause is allowing the 10-day moving average to catch up to price while former resistance begins acting as new support. A bullish breakout from consolidation would favor continuation of the daily uptrend. Last Thursday, the Dollar broke above the important 101 resistance level, leaving it…
Stocks Signal the Start of the Intermediate Cycle Decline
Pre-Summary Stocks entered their Daily Cycle Low timing band on Day 30, but the more important development came when they closed below the lower daily cycle band. That signal ended the daily uptrend and marked the beginning of both a daily downtrend and the Intermediate Cycle Decline. Stocks printed their lowest point on Day 30, placing them in their timing band for a Daily Cycle Low (DCL).…
Stocks Signal the Start of the Intermediate Cycle Decline
Pre-Summary Stocks extended their daily cycle decline by closing below the lower daily cycle band. This structural change ended the daily uptrend, began a daily downtrend, and marked the beginning of the next Intermediate Cycle Decline. Stocks entered the Daily Cycle Low timing band on Day 26 after closing below the 50-day moving average. A swing low formed on Monday, followed by a close back…
Oil Finds Support at the 10-Week MA
Pre-Summary In our July 13 article, we discussed Oil as it reclaimed the 50-week moving average and outlined the evidence needed to identify the next Intermediate Cycle Low. Since then, Oil has reclaimed the 10-week moving average and is beginning to find support above it, but a weekly close above the 10-week moving average is still needed to signal the Intermediate Cycle Low. We discussed Oil…
Gold Reclaims the 10-Day MA
Pre-Summary Gold has reclaimed the 10-day moving average after forming a swing low, building evidence that the current decline may have reached its Daily Cycle Low. At the time of this writing, a close above the 10-day moving average is still needed to signal the Daily Cycle Low. As we discussed previously, Gold has entered the Daily Cycle Low timing band and outlined the evidence needed to…
Stocks Begin Their Daily Cycle Decline
Pre-Summary Stocks rejected resistance near 7575 last week, forming a swing high before closing below both the 10-day and 50-day moving averages. The daily cycle has now entered its declining phase, shifting attention toward where the next Daily Cycle Low (DCL) will develop. Stocks reached resistance near 7575 last Wednesday before forming a swing high on Thursday. Friday’s close below both the…
Bonds Signal a Daily Cycle Low, but the Downtrend Remains
Pre-Summary Bonds signaled a Daily Cycle Low this week, but the daily downtrend remains intact. This chart demonstrates why a new cycle does not automatically signal a new trend. The decline extended into Day 39 before bonds formed a swing low and closed back above the 10-day moving average. That combination signaled Day 39 as the Daily Cycle Low. Although a new daily cycle has begun, the…
The Dollar Resumes Its Hunt For The DCL
Pre-Summary Earlier this week, the Dollar appeared to have signaled its Daily Cycle Low after breaking above the 10-day moving average and the declining trend line. Wednesday’s decline changed that framework, extending the daily cycle instead. Thursday’s rally eased the parameters for forming a new swing low, leaving the Dollar hunting its Daily Cycle Low once again. Earlier this week, we…
Oil Attempts to Signal the Intermediate Cycle Low
Pre-Summary Oil printed its lowest point on Week 28 and has since begun to recover. This week’s rally has carried price back above the 50-week and 200-week moving averages, providing the first evidence that an Intermediate Cycle Low may be developing. However, additional confirmation is still needed before Week 28 can be labeled as the ICL. Oil printed its lowest point on Week 28, placing it in…
Dollar Signals the Daily Cycle Low
Pre-Summary Saturday we noted that the Dollar had been consolidating below the 10-day moving average while holding above the 100.56 support level. Monday’s breakout above the 10-day moving average and the declining trend line provided the evidence needed to signal the Daily Cycle Low. An equally important lesson is how the Daily Cycle Low migrated from Day 25 to Day 31 as the consolidation…
NVDA Begins Daily Uptrend
Pre-Summary Over the past three updates, we’ve followed NVDA as it progressed from finding support at the 200-day moving average to signaling a new Daily Cycle Low. Friday’s breakout completed the next stage of that progression. NVDA closed above the upper daily cycle band, ending the daily downtrend, beginning a new daily uptrend, and signaling that the Intermediate Cycle Low has been…
The Dollar Is Hunting Its DCL
Pre-Summary Most traders assume the Daily Cycle Low must occur at the lowest price following a cycle peak. While that is often true, there are exceptions. The Dollar is currently demonstrating one of those exceptions as consolidation continues to shift the likely Daily Cycle Low away from the initial low and toward the apex of the pattern. After forming a swing high, the Dollar closed below the…
NVDA Update: The Daily Cycle Low Has Been Signaled
Pre-Summary Over our last two NVDA updates, we followed the stock as it found support at the 200-day moving average and repeatedly tested the declining 10-day moving average. This week, NVDA delivered the bullish follow-through needed to signal June 29 as the Daily Cycle Low. The focus now shifts to whether the new daily cycle can generate enough strength to reverse the prevailing daily…
NVDA Update: At a Decision Point
Pre-Summary Two weeks ago, we examined NVDA after it had declined nearly 20% from its recent high and found support at the 200-day moving average. Since then, the stock has repeatedly tested resistance at the declining 10-day moving average while holding above the 200-day moving average. Tuesday’s close above the 10-day moving average is the first meaningful improvement, but additional strength…