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@likesmoney
Oil Approaching a Critical Weekly Cycle Inflection Point
PRE-SUMMARY Oil continues to decline into its intermediate cycle timing band as price approaches a major support zone formed by the converging 50-week and 200-week moving averages. Oil was rejected by the 10-week moving average the previous week and declined 6.92%. That weakness has continued this week, with Oil delivering bearish follow-through and falling nearly 10% as the decline extends. …
Miners Confirm Day 56 DCL, Currently Testing the 200-Day Moving Average
PRE-SUMMARY The Miners have confirmed a daily cycle low and are now testing resistance as the rally begins to stretch above the 10-day moving average. The Miners printed their lowest point on day 56, placing them very deep in their timing band for a DCL. A swing low formed on Thursday and price continued to recover into Friday, but remained contained below the declining 10-day moving…
Stocks Caught Between Support and Resistance
PRE-SUMMARY Stocks continue to consolidate between the 10 day and 50 day moving averages as competing daily cycle scenarios develop. Stocks broke below the day 34 low on Tuesday and closed below the lower daily cycle band on Wednesday. This signals that the prior daily uptrend has ended and shifts the odds toward a failed daily cycle scenario. However, sellers were unable to deliver meaningful…
Bearish Reversal at Resistance Hints at a Daily Cycle Decline
PRE-SUMMARY The Dollar remains in a daily uptrend, but a bearish reversal below 100.20 resistance shifts the odds toward the possibility of a daily cycle decline. The Dollar continues to consolidate below the 100.20 level after breaking out of consolidation last week. From a cycle perspective, the current structure remains unclear. Because the decline into the day 17 low did not turn the 10 day…
Stocks Fail to Break Key Support
PRE-SUMMARY Yesterday we noted that sellers had failed to deliver meaningful bearish follow-through. Today’s reversal from support is beginning to reinforce that view. In yesterday’s post, we noted that stocks had signaled a daily cycle decline but failed to deliver bearish follow-through. That left open the possibility that an extended daily cycle was still in the process of forming. Stocks…
Stocks Fail to Deliver Bearish Follow-Through
PRE-SUMMARY Stocks signaled a daily cycle decline last Friday, but Monday’s rebound is beginning to shift the odds toward a potential daily cycle low. Stocks formed a swing high last Wednesday and closed below the 10 day moving average on Friday, turning the moving average lower and signaling a daily cycle decline. However, sellers failed to deliver bearish follow-through on Monday. Instead,…
Stocks Signal a Daily Cycle Decline
PRE-SUMMARY Stocks closed below the 10 day moving average on Friday, signaling a daily cycle decline after failing to deliver bullish follow-through. Stocks extended higher after breaking out of consolidation and testing resistance near 7600, but momentum faded as price stretched above the rising 10 day moving average. A swing high formed on Wednesday. Buyers held the 10 day moving average on…
Stocks Find Support at the 10 Day MA, Daily Uptrend Holds
PRE-SUMMARY Stocks broke below consolidation on Wednesday but found support at the 10 day moving average and closed higher on Thursday. Stocks became stretched above the 10 day moving average and spent several sessions consolidating below the 7600 level, helping to allow the moving average time to catch up to price. Stocks broke bearishly out of consolidation on Wednesday. However, sellers…
XLE Forms Swing Low in Timing Band
PRE-SUMMARY XLE formed a swing low after printing its lowest point on day 29, placing it in its timing band for a daily cycle low. XLE printed its lowest point on Friday, day 29, placing the ETF in its timing band for a daily cycle low. XLE formed a swing low on Monday as buyers responded from the recent low. While the swing low is an important first step, confirmation will be needed before…
Gold Reclaims the 10 Day MA, Signals DCL
PRE-SUMMARY Gold formed a swing low and closed back above the 10 day moving average, signaling day 46 as the daily cycle low. Gold continued lower into Thursday’s session, printing its lowest point on day 46 and placing the metal deep into its timing band for a daily cycle low. From a cycle perspective, gold found support at the rising 200 day moving average and then formed a swing low on…
Miners Reclaim 10 Day MA, Watching For DCL Signal
Pre-Summary The Miners reclaimed the 10 day MA after extending their daily cycle decline into day 47. The Miners broke below the day 41 low on Thursday to extend their daily cycle decline. Thursday was day 47, placing the Miners very deep in their timing band for a DCL. However, instead of delivering bearish follow through, the Miners formed a bullish reversal on Thursday, easing the…
XLE Bearish Reversal Leads To Daily Cycle Decline
PRE-SUMMARY XLE signaled a daily cycle decline after breaking below the 10 day MA. XLE formed a bearish reversal last week on Wednesday, day 23. XLE then formed a swing high on Thursday and delivered bearish follow through on Tuesday. Tuesday’s decline pushed XLE below the 10 day moving average, signaling the daily cycle decline. From a cycle perspective, XLE should now go on to turn the 10…
BTC Reclaims Support As DCL Scenario Builds
PRE-SUMMARY BTC reversed back above the 50 day MA after briefly breaking below the lower daily cycle band. A close above the 10 day MA would support labeling day 55 as the DCL. BTC closed below both the 50 day moving average and the lower daily cycle band on Friday, day 54, to extend the daily cycle decline. Closing below the lower daily cycle band ended the prior daily uptrend and signaled the…
Gold Attempting To Stabilize Near 4500 Support
PRE-SUMMARY Gold formed a swing low after printing a low on day 41 deep in its timing band. Reclaiming the 10 day MA and 50 day MA would support a DCL. Gold continues finding support near the 4500 level. Gold printed its lowest point on Wednesday. While Wednesday could still be interpreted as day 12 of a failed daily cycle, the bullish divergence on the oscillators continues to support the view…
Stocks Reclaim 10 Day MA Following DCL Signal
PRE-SUMMARY Stocks signaled a daily cycle decline before reclaiming the 10 day MA. The reversal now supports labeling day 34 as the DCL Stocks closed below the 10 day moving average on Tuesday to signal the daily cycle decline. Tuesday marked day 34 for the current daily cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a DCL. From a cycle perspective, stocks should have then gone on to turn the…
Stocks Signal Daily Cycle Decline, Watching 50 Day MA
PRE-SUMMARY Stocks signaled the daily cycle decline after breaking below the 10 day MA. Focus now shifts to the rising 50 day MA for possible support. Stocks formed a swing high on Friday, day 31, placing them in their timing band for a DCL. Stocks then closed below the 10 day moving average on Tuesday to signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks should now go on to turn the 10 day moving average…
Dollar Weekly Buy Signal Loses Momentum, Watching The 10 Week MA
PRE-SUMMARY The dollar signaled a weekly cycle band buy signal last week after reclaiming 2 key weekly moving averages. However, weakening price action is now placing focus back on the 10 week MA. The dollar formed a weekly swing low and closed back above both the 50 week moving average and the 10 week moving average last week. From a cycle perspective, with the dollar currently in a weekly…