A Case for Volantis as the Towers by the Sea
"Some may." Could the skulls in her vision have signified this bridge? Somehow Melisandre did not think so. "If it comes, that attack will be no more than a diversion. I saw towers by the sea, submerged beneath a black and bloody tide. That is where the heaviest blow will fall."
Melisandre I, A Dance With Dragons
Oh boy this is probably gonna make me REALLY unpopular given I’m going against a very popular theory and presenting an alternative to THE poorquentyn eldritch apocalypse theory but I must say my piece.
The towers by the sea in Melisandre’s vision is not in fact Oldtown. It’s Volantis! Now I do think Oldtown might potentially take some damage from Euron and there is certainly ominous foreshadowing surrounding the city? Yes absolutely. However I want to present Volantis as a potential contender for the “towers by the sea” that appear in Melisandre’s vision in this essay. Poor quentyn’s eldritch apocalypse theory imo gets some things right, but I now think he might have fell for a trap and red herrings placed to bait readers while George secretly sets up a potential rug pull with Volantis.
To begin I’d first like to share the passage I’m talking about because I now believe this entire passage is foreshadowing the fate of Volantis not just the towers by the sea. This essay is mainly going to be about the first three highlighted lines as I believe the forth line speaks for itself (dragons fucking duh) and I don’t need to write anything complicated to explain that.
Visions danced before her, gold and scarlet, flickering, forming and melting and dissolving into one another, shapes strange and terrifying and seductive. She saw the eyeless faces again, staring out at her from sockets weeping blood. Then the towers by the sea, crumbling as the dark tide came sweeping over them, rising from the depths. Shadows in the shape of skulls, skulls that turned to mist, bodies locked together in lust, writhing and rolling and clawing. Through curtains of fire great winged shadows wheeled against a hard blue sky.
ADWD - Melisandre I
Now let’s focus on the first and third lines of the vision.
She saw the eyeless faces again, staring out at her from sockets weeping blood […] Shadows in the shape of skulls, skulls that turned to mist, bodies locked together in lust, writhing and rolling and clawing.
While the first line of the vision is considered solved by the fandom as Jon and co believe this is the work of the Weeper ie a wildling beyond the wall who captures three Nights Watch Rangers and scoops out their eyes before impaling their heads on spikes. At first glance this seems reasonable, however there are a handful passages from the main series and one from the Novella The Princess and the Queen in regards to eyeless faces/weeping blood that can be attributed to Dany, the Azor Ahai myth, Dragon dreams and Dragonfire. In regards to the third line there’s also examples of dead flesh melting off bones and turning them charred black due to fire.
"As swift as the wind he rides, and behind him his khalasar covers the earth, men without number, with arakhs shining in their hands like blades of razor grass. Fierce as a storm this prince will be. His enemies will tremble before him, and their wives will weep tears of blood and rend their flesh in grief. The bells in his hair will sing his coming, and the milk men in the stone tents will fear his name." The old woman trembled and looked at Dany almost as if she were afraid. "The prince is riding, and he shall be the stallion who mounts the world."
Daenerys V, A Game of Thrones
X
Viserys stood before her, screaming. "The dragon does not beg, slut. You do not command the dragon. I am the dragon, and I will be crowned." The molten gold trickled down his face like wax, burning deep channels in his flesh. "I am the dragon and I will be crowned!" he shrieked, and his fingers snapped like snakes, biting at her nipples, pinching, twisting, even as his eyes burst and ran like jelly down seared and blackened cheeks.
Daenerys IX, A Game of Thrones
X
A lance of swirling dark flame took Kraznys full in the face. His eyes melted and ran down his cheeks, and the oil in his hair and beard burst so fiercely into fire that for an instant the slaver wore a burning crown twice as tall as his head. The sudden stench of charred meat overwhelmed even his perfume, and his wail seemed to drown all other sound.
Daenerys III, A Storm of Swords
X
His tongue flicked nervously over chapped, cracked lips. "I... I brought..."
"Bones?" she said, impatiently. "Burnt bones?"
He lifted the sack, and spilled its contents on the marble.
Bones they were, broken bones and blackened. The longer ones had been cracked open for their marrow.
"It were the black one," the man said, in a Ghiscari growl, "the winged shadow. He come down from the sky and... and…”
[…]
"Reznak," Ser Barristan said quietly, "hold your tongue and open your eyes. Those are no sheep bones."
No, Dany thought, those are the bones of a child.
Daenerys I, A Dance With Dragons
X
"I looked at that book Maester Aemon left me. The Jade Compendium. The pages that told of Azor Ahai. Lightbringer was his sword. Tempered with his wife's blood if Votar can be believed. Thereafter Lightbringer was never cold to the touch, but warm as Nissa Nissa had been warm. In battle the blade burned fiery hot. Once Azor Ahai fought a monster. When he thrust the sword through the belly of the beast, its blood began to boil. Smoke and steam poured from its mouth, its eyes melted and dribbled down its cheeks, and its body burst into flame."
Jon III, A Dance with Dragons
X
The crossbowman was fumbling for another quarrel as the dragon's teeth closed around his neck. The man wore the mask of a Brazen Beast, the fearsome likeness of a tiger. As he dropped his weapon to try and pry apart Viserion's jaws, flame gouted from the tiger's mouth. The man's eyes burst with soft popping sounds, and the brass around them began to run. The dragon tore off a hunk of flesh, most of the sellsword's neck, then gulped it down as the burning corpse collapsed to the floor.
The DragonTamer, A Dance with Dragons
X
After the girl was gone, the old knight peeled back the coverlet for one last look at Quentyn Martell's face, or what remained of it. So much of the prince's flesh had sloughed away that he could see the skull beneath. His eyes were pools of pus. He should have stayed in Dorne. He should have stayed a frog. Not all men are meant to dance with dragons. As he covered the boy once more, he found himself wondering whether there would be anyone to cover his queen, or whether her own corpse would lie unmourned amongst the tall grasses of the Dothraki sea, staring blindly at the sky until her flesh fell from her bones.
The Queens Hand, A Dance with Dragons
X
When a crazed one-handed prophet called the Shepherd began to rant against dragons, not just the ones who were coming to attack them, but all dragons everywhere, the crowd, half-crazed themselves, listened. "When the dragons come," he shrieked, "your flesh will burn and blister and turn to ash. Your wives will dance in gowns of fire, shrieking as they burn, lewd and naked underneath the flames. And you shall see your little children weeping, weeping till their eyes do melt and slide like jelly down their faces, till their pink flesh falls black and crackling from their bones. The Stranger comes, he comes, he comes, to scourge us for our sins. Prayers cannot stay his wroth, no more than tears can quench the flame of dragons. Only blood can do that. Your blood, my blood, their blood." Then he raised the stump of his right arm, and pointed at Rhaenys's Hill behind him, at the Dragonpit black against the stars. "There the demons dwell, up there. This is their city. If you would make it yours, first must you destroy them! If you would cleanse yourself of sin, first must you bathe in dragon's blood! For only blood can quench the fires of hell!"
The Princess and the Queen
As we can see there are a handful of passages describing melting eyes and melting/dead flesh falling away until bone is visible that can be traced back to Dragonfire, Dragon dreams, and Daenerys. It is my belief that Melisandre is seeing people being burned alive in her visions not the work of the Weeper.
There is also one other passage in a Jon chapter regarding melting eyes and melting/dead flesh falling off to reveal bones that doesn’t have any direct connection to Dragonfire ect but the imagery is similar so I’ll share it for context.
Truly, the gods had heard Jon's prayer that night; the fire had caught in the dead man's clothing and consumed him as if his flesh were candle wax and his bones old dry wood. Jon had only to close his eyes to see the thing staggering across the solar, crashing against the furniture and flailing at the flames. It was the face that haunted him most; surrounded by a nimbus of fire, hair blazing like straw, the dead flesh melting away and sloughing off its skull to reveal the gleam of bone beneath.
Whatever demonic force moved Othor had been driven out by the flames; the twisted thing they had found in the ashes had been no more than cooked meat and charred bone. Yet in his nightmare he faced it again ... and this time the burning corpse wore Lord Eddard's features. It was his father's skin that burst and blackened, his father's eyes that ran liquid down his cheeks like jellied tears. Jon did not understand why that should be or what it might mean, but it frightened him more than he could say.
Jon VIII, A Game of Thrones
It is also important to note in the passage before the vision Melisandre literally asks for a vision of Azor Ahai before we get the vision of the towers by the sea which is overlooked by some parts of the fandom.
Many a priest and priestess before her had been brought down by false visions, by seeing what they wished to see instead of what the Lord of Light had sent. Stannis was marching south into peril, the king who carried the fate of the world upon his shoulders, Azor Ahai reborn. Surely R'hllor would vouchsafe her a glimpse of what awaited him. Show me Stannis, Lord, she prayed. Show me your king, your instrument.
Melisandre I, A Dance with Dragons
This is a very gaping hole in the oldtown theory as there is no immediate foreshadowing for Dany to go to Oldtown in the winds of winter. Maybe in a dream of spring but we will see.
Now before we move on to talk about the second part of the Mel’s vision, I’d first like to talk about a few other holes in the Oldtown theory and some other nags I’ve had with that portion of the eldritch apocalypse theory before I continue.
My case against Oldtown
1. It’s “towers by the sea”. Not THE tower by the sea
This might be a cheat but Oldtown is known for one singular tower not several and that big ass tower is bound to dwarf and draw attention away from all other towers in the area. Granted this could potentially be referring to the high tower family themselves but I don’t think the family has had much relevance in the main story so far to be in consideration for that importantance. There is also the fact that people use that single line and proclaim it oldtown and never consider that line and the rest of the paragraph could be referring to one singular vision and I’d now argue Oldtown doesn’t even match ONE line while I could potentially connect all four with Volantis.
2. We do not spend anytime in old town in A Dance with Dragons the book we get the bloody tide vision.
Now while George splitting feast and Dance the way he did could be a result of this, I feel like oldtown being noticeably absent in the book we get her vision of the towers by the sea does feel like a rather glaring hole in this theory. If George wanted us to consider Oldtown as a potential candidate don’t you think he would have given us at least one or two chapter properly establishing the city and have Sam note significant towers to have readers come to this conclusion.
3. Oldtown has no significance to the R’hllor faith.
This in my opinion should make us doubt oldtown (Hell it should be making Mel a bit sus of east watch too but she’s a dud who failed fortune telling school for the red god), because why would a red priestess have a vision that has no connection to her faith whatsoever (she also asked to see Azor Ahai). Melisandre believes the Others are the servant of her god’s enemy, The Great Other so her potentially mistaken the towers by the sea for Eastwarch seems somewhat plausible but I see no reason for her to get a vision of Oldtown a city that’s more heavily tied to the faith of the seven not the faith of R’hllor
4. What is Euron’s plan exactly if it’s Oldtown? or Is Euron just going to sit around in Oldtown BEFORE finally blowing Sam’s horn
This is one thing that’s been nagging at me about the theory for a long time. Like what is Euron’s actual plan? Is it really gonna take him an entire book to get to Oldtown when Dany, who’s halfway across the world will likely be in Westeros (Dragonstone) by the end of TWOW even when making several stops along the way? And like what exactly would he be doing in Oldtown for the rest of his entire storyline before the climax where he decides “Welp it’s time to bring the wall down”with the horn we all love theorising about conveniently being dropped in his lap? Does he even know what it is? Is that even the horn of winter or something George is using to distract us?
I do believe poor quentyn is correct that Euron is up to some messed up blood magic and has aspirations for godhood and I will talk about how the later could fit in potentially even more snuggly with Volantis but like there is also a lot of convenient things that go into the Oldtown portion of the theory that I’m not sure George would do as a writer.
Okay now that I’ve gotten that out of the way it’s time to present my case for Volantis.
My case for Volantis
To begin my case for Volantis I’d first like to point out that not only is it a port city like Oldtown (Water is wet statement I know) but conflict with Volantis is also seeded as early as Daenerys’ closing a Storm of Swords chapter. This conflict starts when Yunkai sends envoy’s to the city to help them depose Daenerys after her violent conquest of Slavers Bay but doesn’t fully sprout in importance until A Dance with Dragons.
"These Yunkish dogs cannot be trusted, Your Worship. Even now they plot against you. New levies have been raised and can be seen drilling outside the city walls, warships are being built, envoys have been sent to New Ghis and Volantis in the west, to make alliances and hire sellswords.
Daenerys VI, A Storm of Swords
Three of the series’ viewpoint characters also visit the city in Dance either in the present or via flashbacks (ie Quentyn, Tyrion and Victarion). Volantis also appears in the book we get the bloody tide vision and has been continuing grow in importance since Storm. That conflict is going to come to a head when Daenerys finally arrives in The Winds of Winter. There is also a passage in Tyrion’s seventh chapter in Dance that could show the specific towers Melisandre is seeing crumbling if we consider Volantis.
Three blocks later the street opened up before them onto a huge torchlit plaza, and there it stood. Seven save me, that's got to be three times the size of the Great Sept of Baelor. An enormity of pillars, steps, buttresses, bridges, domes, and towers flowing into one another as if they had all been chiseled from one collossal rock, the Temple of the Lord of Light loomed like Aegon's High Hill. A hundred hues of red, yellow, gold, and orange met and melded in the temple walls, dissolving one into the other like clouds at sunset. Its slender towers twisted ever upward, frozen flames dancing as they reached for the sky. Fire turned to stone. Huge nightfires burned beside the temple steps, and between them the High Priest had begun to speak.
Tyrion VII, A Dance With Dragons
The towers for the temple of The Lord of Light! Don’t you think it would hold more significance for the towers by the sea Melisandre sees to refer to the destruction of a temple or city with a deep connection to the R’hllor faith as apposed to Oldtown that is heavily tied to the faith of the seven.
The connection between Volantis (and its neighbouring towns) and the R’hllor faith is built up heavily in a dance with dragons especially as the main religion among the slaves.
Across the square they joined the growing throng outside the red temple. With the locals towering above him on every hand, the little man found it hard to see much beyond their arses. He could hear most every word the priest was saying, but that was not to say he understood them. "Do you understand what he is saying?" he asked Haldon in the Common Tongue.
[...]
Tyrion crossed his arms and looked behind him, studying the faces of the men and women who had stopped to listen. Everywhere he turned, he saw tattoos. Slaves. Four of every five of them are slaves.
"The priest is calling on the Volantenes to go to war," the Halfmaester told him, "but on the side of right, as soldiers of the Lord of Light, R'hllor who made the sun and stars and fights eternally against the darkness. Nyessos and Malaquo have turned away from the light, he says, their hearts darkened by the yellow harpies from the east. He says ..."
[…]
The Volantene waved a hand. "In Volantis, thousands of slaves and freedmen crowd the temple plaza every night to hear Benerro shriek of bleeding stars and a sword of fire that will cleanse the world. He has been preaching that Volantis will surely burn if the triarchs take up arms against the silver queen."
Tyrion VI, A Dance With Dragons
X
By then they had slowed to a crawl. The river road was thick with traffic, almost all of it flowing south. The knight went with it, a log caught in a current. Tyrion eyed the passing throngs. Nine men of every ten bore slave marks on their cheeks. "So many slaves … where are they all going?"
"The red priests light their nightfires at sunset. The High Priest will be speaking. I would avoid it if I could, but to reach the Long Bridge we must pass the red temple."
[…]
"Oh, I think it will be war as well, but not the war they want." The old woman leaned forward, her black eyes gleaming. "I think that red R'hllor has more worshipers in this city than all the other gods together. Have you heard Benerro preach?"
"Last night."
"Benerro can see the morrow in his flames," the widow said. "Triarch Malaquo tried to hire the Golden Company, did you know? He meant to clean out the red temple and put Benerro to the sword. He dare not use tiger cloaks. Half of them worship the Lord of Light as well. Oh, these are dire days in Old Volantis, even for wrinkled old widows. But not half so dire as in Meereen, I think. So tell me, ser ... why do you seek the silver queen?"
Tyrion VII, A Dance of Dragons
Overall Volantis has a much stronger connection to the R’hllor faith than Oldtown and is surrounded by ominous foreshadowing for when Dany finally arrives as the political situation in Volantis ends with the tigers heavily implied to be in control of the city.
"Volantis is the oldest of the Nine Free Cities, first daughter of Valyria," the lad replied, in a bored tone. "After the Doom it pleased the Volantenes to consider themselves the heirs of the Freehold and rightful rulers of the world, but they were divided as to how dominion might best be achieved. The Old Blood favored the sword, while the merchants and moneylenders advocated trade. As they contended for rule of the city, the factions became known as the tigers and elephants, respectively.
"The tigers held sway for almost a century after the Doom of Valyria. For a time they were successful. A Volantene fleet took Lys and a Volantene army captured Myr, and for two generations all three cities were ruled from within the Black Walls. That ended when the tigers tried to swallow Tyrosh. Pentos came into the war on the Tyroshi side, along with the Westerosi Storm King. Braavos provided a Lyseni exile with a hundred warships, Aegon Targaryen flew forth from Dragonstone on the Black Dread, and Myr and Lys rose up in rebellion. The war left the Disputed Lands a waste, and freed Lys and Myr from the yoke. The tigers suffered other defeats as well. The fleet they sent to reclaim Valyria vanished in the Smoking Sea. Qohor and Norvos broke their power on the Rhoyne when the fire galleys fought on Dagger Lake. Out of the east came the Dothraki, driving smallfolk from their hovels and nobles from their estates, until only grass and ruins remained from the forest of Qohor to the headwaters of the Selhoru. After a century of war, Volantis found herself broken, bankrupt, and depopulated. It was then that the elephants rose up. They have held sway ever since. Some years the tigers elect a triarch, and some years they do not, but never more than one, so the elephants have ruled the city for three hundred years."
"Just so," said Haldon. "And the present triarchs?"
"Malaquo is a tiger, Nyessos and Doniphos are elephants."
Tyrion IV, A Dance with Dragons
X
He did not know these Volantenes, yet it seemed to him that elephants and tigers might have good reason to make common cause when faced with dragons. Might be the cheesemonger has misjudged the situation. You can buy a man with gold, but only blood and steel will keep him true.
Tyrion V, A Dance with Dragons
X
"The Yunkishmen have bought your triarchs?"
"Only Nyessos." […] "Malaquo may be old and toothless, but he is a tiger still, and Doniphos will not be returned as triarch. The city thirsts for war."
Tyrion VI, A Dance with Dragons
X
“You would travel to Meereen? Just wait a while, ser. Swords will be wanted soon enough, when the warships bend their oars eastward to bring down the silver queen. Tigers love to bare their claws, and even elephants will kill if threatened. Malaquo hungers for a taste of glory, and Nyessos owes much of his wealth to the slave trade. Let Alios or Parquello or Belicho gain the triarchy, and the fleets will sail."
[…]
The widow sipped daintily at her wine. "Some of the first elephants were women," she said, "the ones who brought the tigers down and ended the old wars.”
[…]
"I am no lady," the widow replied, "just Vogarro's whore. You want to be gone from here before the tigers come.”
Tyrion VII, A Dance with Dragons
X
"What do you see?" the captain asked his black priest that night, as Mogorro stood before his nightfire. "What awaits us on the morrow? More rain?" It smelled like rain to him.
"Grey skies and strong winds," Moqorro said. "No rain. Behind come the tigers. Ahead awaits your dragon."
Victarion I, A Dance with Dragons
With all this in mind I’d now like to draw your attention back to the passage from Quentyn Martells final chapter in Dance (The DragonTamer passage) I shared at the beginning of this essay
The crossbowman was fumbling for another quarrel as the dragon's teeth closed around his neck. The man wore the mask of a Brazen Beast, the fearsome likeness of a tiger. As he dropped his weapon to try and pry apart Viserion's jaws, flame gouted from the tiger's mouth. The man's eyes burst with soft popping sounds, and the brass around them began to run. The dragon tore off a hunk of flesh, most of the sellsword's neck, then gulped it down as the burning corpse collapsed to the floor.
The DragonTamer, A Dance with Dragons
Not only do we have an eyeless face connected to Dragon Fire here but we also have a man wearing brazen beast mask of an animal heavily linked to Volantis dying in a very gruesome way. This feels relevant because Martin has used the brazen beast masks to potentially foreshadow other things in the story (See the Shavepate potentially poisoning the locusts theory).
Twelve levels down he found the Shavepate waiting, his coarse features still hidden by the mask he had worn that morning, the blood bat. Six Brazen Beasts were with him. All were masked as insects, identical to one another.
Locusts, Selmy realized. "Groleo," he said.
The Kingbreaker, A Dance with Dragons
X
Day had crept upon the city. Though the rain still fell, a vague light suffused the eastern sky. And with the sun arrived the Shavepate. Skahaz was clad in his familiar garb of pleated black skirt, greaves, and muscled breastplate. The brazen mask beneath his arm was new—a wolf's head with lolling tongue. "So," he said, by way of greeting, "the fool is dead, is he?"
The Queen’s Hand, A Dance With Dragons
(Transition to the next chapter)
And Strong Belwas had been on his knees, heaving and shuddering. Poison. It had to be poison. The honeyed locusts. Hizdahr urged them on me, but Belwas ate them all. She had made Hizdahr her king, taken him into her bed, opened the fighting pits for him, he had no reason to want her dead. Yet who else could it have been? Reznak, her perfumed seneschal? The Yunkai'i? The Sons of the Harpy?
Off in the distance, a wolf howled.
Daenerys X, A Dance with Dragons
The Tiger mask also potentially has me worried for the Tiger cloaks of Volantis given they have tiger striped tattoos and well they are called the TIGER CLOAKS (might be paranoid but covering my bases)
A squad of Volantene spearmen stood guard at the river gate. Torchlight gleamed off the steel claws that jutted from their gauntlets. Their helms were tiger's masks, the faces beneath marked by green stripes tattooed across both cheeks. The slave soldiers of Volantis were fiercely proud of their tiger stripes, Tyrion knew. Do they yearn for freedom? he wondered. What would they do if this child queen bestowed it on them? What are they, if not tigers? What am I, if not a lion?
Tyrion VI, Dance with Dragons
A few minor points before moving on. While I’m more certain the “Shadows in the shapes of skulls” line of Mel’s vision is more likely referring to melting flesh and burnt/charred skulls I do want to point out there are slaves with skull tattoos (though I’m not sure of the significance they have compared to others that get explanations). Their coins have skulls stamped on one side.
The slaves were all tattooed: a mask of blue feathers, a lightning bolt that ran from jaw to brow, a coin upon the cheek, a leopard's spots, a skull, a jug.
The Merchants Man, A Dance with Dragons
X
Telling one coin from another by touch alone was one of the first things the waif had taught her, after they took away her eyes. The Braavosi coins were old friends; she need only brush her fingertips across their faces to recognize them. Coins from other lands and cities were harder, especially those from far away. Volantene honors were most common, little coins no bigger than a penny with a crown on one side and a skull on the other.
The Blind Girl, A Dance with Dragons
Could be nothing or a coincidence but might be a minor hint.
Now that I’ve talked about Volantis I want to talk about the bloody tide that will sweep over the towers by the sea. Unlike with Oldtown we have multiple options of how to interpret this when it comes to Volantis. We have at least three candidates though it’s also possible the bloody tide could be a combination of two or all three of these candidates.
Bloodly Tide Candidate #1: Euron Greyjoy
Let’s start with the most popular interpretation of that portion because yes there is groundwork and potential for this even in Volantis. Yes, Euron is currently at the shield islands and Volantis is a long way from there which might be an issue but Dany is in the Dothraki sea by the end of Dance and supposedly has to be in Westros by the end of Winds and a lot of other characters are going to be moving about so like everyone isn’t skipping leg day when it comes to long journeys in Winds it seems.
To start let’s talk about Euron’s plans for the poor sods he’s holding prisoner and lashing to the prows of the ships in his fleet.
It was in the second dungeon that the other holy men began to appear to share his torments. Three wore the robes of septons of the green lands, and one the red raiment of a priest of R’hllor. The last was hardly recognizable as a man. Both his hands had been burned down to the bone, and his face was a charred and blackened horror where two blind eyes moved sightlessly above the cracked cheeks dripping pus. He was dead within hours of being shackled to the wall, but the mutes left his body there to ripen for three days afterwards.
Last were two warlocks of the east, with flesh as white as mushrooms, and lips the purplish-blue of a bad bruise, all so gaunt and starved that only skin and bones remained. One had lost his legs. The mutes hung him from a rafter. “Pree,” he cried as he swung back and forth. “Pree, Pree!”
The Foresaken, The Winds of Winter (sample chapter)
He also wants to sacrifice Falia Flowers: his (salt) wife who is also pregnant.
When they were well out to sea, Euron returned to him. “Brother,” he said, “you look forlorn. I have a gift for you.”
He beckoned, and two of his bastard sons dragged the woman forward and bound her to the prow on the other side of the figurehead. Naked as the mouthless maiden, her smooth belly just beginning to swell with the child she was carrying, her cheeks red with tears, she did not struggle as the boys tightened her bonds. Her hair hung down in front of her face, but Aeron knew her all the same.
“Falia Flowers,” he called. “Have courage, girl! All this will be over soon, and we will feast together in the Drowned God’s watery halls.”
The Foresaken, The Winds of Winter (sample chapter)
I had a conversation with a mutual awhile ago when I was kicking this theory around and they brought up a very good point: This ritual and Euron’s potential blood sacrifice might be much more significant if performed near Volantis then if it happened at Oldtown for one specific reason. The R’hollor faiths main story of Azor Ahai is built on a blood sacrifice.
"A hundred days and a hundred nights he labored on the third blade, and as it glowed white-hot in the sacred fires, he summoned his wife. 'Nissa Nissa,' he said to her, for that was her name, 'bare your breast, and know that I love you best of all that is in this world.' She did this thing, why I cannot say, and Azor Ahai thrust the smoking sword through her living heart. It is said that her cry of anguish and ecstasy left a crack across the face of the moon, but her blood and her soul and her strength and her courage all went into the steel. Such is the tale of the forging of Lightbringer, the Red Sword of Heroes.
Davos I, A Clash of Kings
Now to focus on the bloody tide. Euron is definitely consistently linked to a bloody sea in dreams and visions
"Have you seen these others in your fires?" [Tyrion] asked, warily.
"Only their shadows," Moqorro said. "One most of all. A tall and twisted thing with one black eye and ten long arms, sailing on a sea of blood."
Tyrion VIII, A Dance With Dragons
X
The dreams were even worse the second time. He saw the longships of the Ironborn adrift and burning on a boiling blood-red sea. He saw his brother on the Iron Throne again, but Euron was no longer human. He seemed more squid than man, a monster fathered by a kraken of the deep, his face a mass of writhing tentacles. Beside him stood a shadow in woman's form, long and tall and terrible, her hands alive with pale white fire. Dwarves capered for their amusement, male and female, naked and misshapen, locked in carnal embrace, biting and tearing at each other as Euron and his mate laughed and laughed and laughed …
The Foresaken, The Winds Of Winter (sample chapter)
Euron has also been lightly foreshadowed in Dany’s story arguably as early as A Clash of Kings with theories that Urrathon Night-Walker, a minor off screen character in Quarth is actually Euron himself under an alias as well as Daenerys’ visions in the House of the Undying.
Her silver was trotting through the grass, to a darkling stream beneath a sea of stars. A corpse stood at the prow of a ship, eyes bright in his dead face, grey lips smiling sadly. A blue flower grew from a chink in a wall of ice, and filled the air with sweetness.
Daenerys IV, A Clash of Kings
There is a lot more to talk about in regards to Euron and Daenerys’ eventually meeting at some point but to keep this essay as focused as possible I’ll stop here and point you towards this essay by @/ladyofasoiaf that has complied a fantastic list of all the potential foreshadowing of Daenerys and Euron intersecting at some point (@/istumpysk also has a fantastic post that points out the similarities between Euron’s ship: The Silence and Drogon in terms of colour coding. Link here) and if he is heading towards Volantis that is bad news no matter what the relationship between Euron and Dany ends up being. If they destroy it as potential allies or battle there as enemies either way Volantis is FUCKED!
Now if you are wondering “what about Sam’s horn? What’s that about?” Well the simple answer is I (as well as everyone else in the fandom) don’t know for sure. The horn could simply be a red herring or serve some other purpose however if it is indeed the horn of winter Euron could get it from an initial raid on Oldtown before quickly moving on and there is another way Euron could get his hands on it without having to even setting foot in Oldtown. @/istumpsk in her reread project and analysis of Sam’s chapters outlines a theory in which Sam might deliver Aemon’s body (currently being preserved in rum) to dragonstone and if Euron and Dany have at least a temporary alliance as some foreshadowing might suggest Euron could simply take the horn from him there with zero issue. (Link to stumpy’s reread project here)
Before we move on I’ll finish up with saying Euron still could potentially do some blood magic to help him conquer Oldtown because it’s not impossible and there is a large sept for the faith of the seven which would line up with his dethroning the gods vibe ect though it’s possible that might only be the start of his story in winds however if he is destined to be tied up in Oldtown (or elsewhere) for all of winds there are two other candidates that could represent the bloody tide for Volantis so let’s now talk about candidate #2.
Bloody Tide Candidate #2: Victarion Greyjoy and/or the portion of the ironborn fleet already at Slavers Bay.
For candidate number 2 we have George R.R Martin’s black comedy masterpiece and second dumbest POV character (Yes, I said second dumbest. Bootlicker Barry is dumber than him!) Victarion Greyjoy and the Ironborn already at Slavers Bay.
Quick reminder on Victarion’s story so far. Victarion is on his way to Slavers Bay and has just arrived to help in the battle of Meereen after being sent their by his older brother Euron to bring Daenerys back to Westeros to be his queen.
While Victarion is not linked to “bloody tides” as consistently as Euron is in dreams and visions it does seem to be a running theme for Greyjoys and ironborn in general. This is how Theon taking winterfell is foreshadowed in A Clash of kings (though this could also be a point for Euron).
"It is the sea that comes."
"The sea?"
"I dreamed that the sea was lapping all around Winterfell. I saw black waves crashing against the gates and towers, and then the salt water came flowing over the walls and filled the castle. Drowned men were floating in the yard. When I first dreamed the dream, back at Greywater, I didn't know their faces, but now I do. That Alebelly is one, the guard who called our names at the feast. Your septon's another. Your smith as well."
Bran V, A Clash of Kings
Another thing that points towards Victarian is a running theme throughout A Dance with Dragons, how is Daenerys is going to transport her army to Westeros and what ships she will potentially use. Throughout book 5 we see her turn down offers from people because they either aren’t offering enough ships to transport her armies and/or other commitments.
"The gift you begged of me in Qarth. Ships. There are thirteen galleys in the bay. Yours, if you will have them. I have brought you a fleet, to carry you home to Westeros."
A fleet. It was more than she could hope for, so of course it made her wary. In Qarth, Xaro had offered her thirty ships... for a dragon. "And what price do you ask for these ships?"
"None. I no longer lust for dragons. I saw their work at Astapor on my way here, when my Silken Cloud put in for water. The ships are yours, sweet queen. Thirteen galleys, and men to pull the oars."
[...]
If I were a dragon, I could fly to Westeros, she thought when he was gone. I would have no need of Xaro or his ships. Dany wondered how many men thirteen galleys could hold. It had taken three to carry her and her khalasar from Qarth to Astapor, but that was before she had acquired eight thousand Unsullied, a thousand sellswords, and a vast horde of freedmen. And the dragons, what am I to do with them?
"Drogon," she whispered softly, "where are you?" For a moment she could almost see him sweeping across the sky, his black wings swallowing the stars.
[…]
"How?" asked Symon Stripeback, named for the tangle of scars that ridged his back and shoulders, a reminder of the whippings he had suffered as a slave in Astapor. "Thirteen ships … that's not enough. A hundred ships might not be enough."
Daenerys III, A Dance with Dragons
X
"House Martell is ancient and noble, and has been a leal friend to House Targaryen for more than a century, Your Grace. I had the honor of serving with Prince Quentyn's great-uncle in your father's seven. Prince Lewyn was as valiant a brother-in-arms as any man could wish for. Quentyn Martell is of the same blood, if it please Your Grace."
"It would please me if he had turned up with these fifty thousand swords he speaks of.
Instead he brings two knights and a parchment. Will a parchment shield my people from the Yunkai'i? If he had come with a fleet…”
"Sunspear has never been a sea power, Your Grace."
Daenerys VIII, A Dance with Dragons
Daenerys turns down Xaro’s offer concerned it could be a trap and that thirteen ships might not be enough ships for her army. She also turns down Quentyn’s offer because he shows up the day before her marriage to Hizdar and brings no fleet
Victarion had ninety nine ships when he left the stepstones and at Forty Five ships have arrived at the Isle of Cedars (just outside Slavers Bay) by his first chapter in A Dance with Dragons with more potentially still trailing behind.
Nine-and-ninety ships had left the Stepstones in three proud fleets, with orders to join up again off the southern tip of the Isle of Cedars. Forty-five had now arrived on the far side of the world. Twenty-two of Victarion's own had straggled in, by threes and fours, sometimes alone; fourteen of Ralf the Limper's; only nine of those that had sailed with Red Ralf Stonehouse. Red Ralf himself was amongst the missing. To their number the fleet had added nine new prizes taken on the seas, so the sum was fifty-four….. but the captured ships were cogs and fishing boats, merchantmen and slavers, not warships. In battle, they would be poor substitutes for the lost ships of the Iron Fleet.
The Iron Suitor, A Dance with Dragons
Now while the ships he currently has might be enough, Victarion is also planning to capture ships around the area of Slavers Bay and the fleet that's coming from Volantis combined that would surely be enough.
The galley he renamed the Slaver's Scream. With her, the ships of the Iron Fleet numbered one-and-sixty. "Every ship we capture makes us stronger," Victarion told his ironborn, "but from here it will grow harder. On the morrow or the day after, we are like to meet with warships. We are entering the home waters of Meereen, where the fleets of our foes await us. We will meet with ships from all three Slaver Cities, ships from Tolos and Elyria and New Ghis, even ships from Qarth." He took care not to mention the green galleys of Old Volantis that surely must be sailing up through the Gulf of Grief even as he spoke. "These slavers are feeble things. You have seen how they run before us, heard how they squeal when we put them to the sword. Every man of you is worth twenty of them, for only we are made of iron. Remember this when first we next spy some slaver's sails. Give no quarter and expect none. What need have we of quarter? We are the ironborn, and two gods look over us. We will seize their ships, smash their hopes, and turn their bay to blood."
Victarion I, A Dance with Dragons
Daenerys is going to need these ships to not only come to Westros but to take Volantis as she will need to take on supplies before the final leg of the journey to Westros. Although people theorise Victarion will die in Slavers Bay, even if that does happen, his ships and men will almost certainly be added to Daenerys’ forces once she finally leaves slavers bay for good.
“When I sent ships to bring her home, she turned toward Slaver's Bay. In a short span of days she conquered Astapor, made Yunkai bend the knee, and sacked Meereen. Mantarys will be next, if she marches west along the old Valyrian roads. If she comes by sea, well... her fleet must take on food and water at Volantis."
Tyrion II, A Dance with Dragons
Now while Euron and Victarion are the two most obvious candidates, it’s time to move onto the final candidate that I think deserves its own section because George who is often murky with visions could be setting this up as a subversion of what we would expect a bloody ride to be.
Bloody Tide Candidate #3: The Dothraki
If you’re wondering how the Dothraki could potentially be the bloody tide given they have no connection to the sea my answer would be “Where exactly do the Dothraki live and come from? THE DOTHRAKI SEA!”. The Dothraki have also been apart of Daenerys’ story from the beginning and it was in the Dothraki sea that Daenerys had her metaphorical/symbolic “rebirth” and hatched the dragons. It would make narrative sense if the people from the “sea” she was reborn into helped play a major role in her arc for The Winds of Winter and when she finally arrives at Volantis
"Viserys was Mad Aerys's son, just so. Daenerys...Daenerys is quite different." He popped a roasted lark into his mouth and crunched it noisily, bones and all. "The frightened child who sheltered in my manse died on the Dothraki sea, and was reborn in blood and fire. This dragon queen who wears her name is a true Targaryen.
Tyrion II, A Dance with Dragons
The Dothraki are also mentioned throughout A Dance with Dragons in Tyrion’s chapters as he, JonCon, and company make their way to Volantis on the river Rhyone with these ones standing out most to me due to how close the Dothraki appear to be getting to the free cities.
"We have no time for feasts, my lord," said Haldon. "Griff means to strike downriver the instant we are back. News has been coming upriver, none of it good.
Dothraki have been seen north of Dagger Lake, outriders from old Motho's khalasar, and Khal Zekko is not far behind him, moving through the Forest of Qohor."
Tyrion III, A Dance with Dragons
X
"Three," Qavo allowed, "against thrice three thousand enemies. Grazdan mo Eraz was not the only envoy sent out from the Yellow City. When the Wise Masters move against Meereen, the legions of New Ghis will fight beside them. Tolosi. Elyrians. Even the Dothraki."
"You have Dothraki outside your own gates," Haldon said.
"Khal Pono." Qavo waved a pale hand in dismissal. "The horselords come, we give them gifts, the horselords go." He moved his catapult again, closed his hand around Tyrion's alabaster dragon, removed it from the board.
Tyrion VI, A Dance with Dragons
In regards to how the Dothraki will get to Volantis it should be noted that the Dothraki fear the sea so while the main bulk of Daenerys’ forces will most likely travel by ship the Dothraki may prefer to travel along the Demon road and/or other old valyrian roads which should take them right to Volantis
“When I sent ships to bring her home, she turned toward Slaver's Bay. In a short span of days she conquered Astapor, made Yunkai bend the knee, and sacked Meereen. Mantarys will be next, if she marches west along the old Valyrian roads. If she comes by sea, well... her fleet must take on food and water at Volantis."
Tyrion II, A Dance with Dragons
For how the Dothraki might stage an attack on Volantis, Tyrion himself is brainstorming on what he might do if he was a Dothraki khal when he, JonCon and company notices Volantene ships gathering to defend Selhorys from a potential attack.
The princeling was in a sullen mood, angry that he had been forced to remain on the Shy Maid instead of going ashore with Yandry and Ysilla. "We only want to keep you safe," Lemore told him. "These are unsettled times."
Haldon Halfmaester explained. "On the way down from the Sorrows to Selhorys, we thrice glimpsed riders moving south along the river's eastern shore. Dothraki. Once they were so close we could hear the bells tinkling in their braids, and sometimes at night their fires could be seen beyond the eastern hills. We passed warships as well, Volantene river galleys crammed with slave soldiers. The triarchs fear an attack upon Selhorys, plainly."
Tyrion understood that quick enough. Alone amongst the major river towns, Selhorys stood upon the eastern bank of the Rhoyne, making it much more vulnerable to the horselords than its sister towns across the river. Even so, it is a small prize. If I were khal, I would feint at Selhorys, let the Volantenes rush to defend it, then swing south and ride hard for Volantis itself.
Tyrion VI, A Dance with Dragons
This passage stands out in particular for me as it’s remarkably similar to what Melisandre hypothesises about her vision and what she believes will happen to the towers and Jon assumes her vision is about Eastwatch.
"We've had a raven from Ser Denys Mallister at the Shadow Tower," Jon Snow told her. "His men have seen fires in the mountains on the far side of the Gorge. Wildlings massing, Ser Denys believes. He thinks they are going to try to force the Bridge of Skulls again."
"Some may." Could the skulls in her vision have signified this bridge? Somehow Melisandre did not think so. "If it comes, that attack will be no more than a diversion. I saw towers by the sea, submerged beneath a black and bloody tide. That is where the heaviest blow will fall."
"Eastwatch?"
Melisandre I, A Dance with Dragons
That feels like a rather remarkable coincidence unless of course Martin is being very sneaky with this particular foreshadowing and given that Tyrion is on his way to advise Daenerys he could potentially put this strategy into motion.
The last thing that points towards the Dothraki potentially fulfilling the bloody tide is where Daenerys’ Story as of now stands. By the end of A Dance with Dragons Daenerys is wandering the Dothraki sea with Drogon when she encounters one of Khal Drogo’s former bloodriders Jhaqo. This seems to be set up for a vaes Dothrak storyline similar to what we saw in HBO’s Games of Thrones in which she unites all the Dothraki into one Khalasar and fulfill the stallion who mounts the world prophecy which she has been set up to fulfill since book one and in the house of the undying with a vision of the widows of the former khals bowing to her.
"Only the crones of the dosh khaleen dwell permanently in the sacred city, them and their slaves and servants," Ser Jorah replied, "yet Vaes Dothrak is large enough to house every man of every khalasar, should all the khals return to the Mother at once. The crones have prophesied that one day that will come to pass, and so Vaes Dothrak must be ready to embrace all its children.”
Daenerys IV, A Game of Thrones
X
A white lion ran through grass taller than a man. Beneath the Mother of Mountains, a line of naked crones crept from a great lake and knelt shivering before her, their grey heads bowed.
Daenerys IV, A Clash of Kings
Okay now that we have talked about all the major contenders for the bloody tide, it is time to ask the all important question: What does it mean for the narrative for the towers by the sea to be Volantis if Azor Ahai is the supposed saviour of the world?
A Saviour or A Warning
(A quick shoutout to tumblr user @/trinuvel who’s own essays on the prince that was promised and how Daenerys connects to Azor Ahai helped form my basis for this last section. Links here.)
"Prophecy is like a half-trained mule," he complained to Jorah Mormont. "It looks as though it might be useful, but the moment you trust in it, it kicks you in the head.”
Tyrion IX, A Dance with Dragons
One of the more frustrating aspects of the asoiaf fandom is how it approaches the Azor Ahai and Prince that was Promised prophecies. The majority of the fans either treat it as a guessing game or take the prophecies completely at face value despite the numerous warnings about prophecies Martin sprinkles throughout the text. And The Prince that was Promised prophecy is also not an exception to this.
“Born amidst salt and smoke, beneath a bleeding star. I know the prophecy." Marwyn turned his head and spat a gob of red phlegm onto the floor. "Not that I would trust it. Gorghan of Old Ghis once wrote that a prophecy is like a treacherous woman. She takes your member in her mouth, and you moan with the pleasure of it and think, how sweet, how fine, how good this is . . . and then her teeth snap shut and your moans turn to screams. That is the nature of prophecy, said Gorghan. Prophecy will bite your prick off every time."
Samwell V, A Feast for Crows
On top of the numerous warnings about prophecies in general Martin has also potentially planted several seeds and/or red flags about the Azor Ahai one itself. The first red flag is in my opinion the story of Azor Ahai.
"A hundred days and a hundred nights he labored on the third blade, and as it glowed white-hot in the sacred fires, he summoned his wife. 'Nissa Nissa,' he said to her, for that was her name, 'bare your breast, and know that I love you best of all that is in this world.' She did this thing, why I cannot say, and Azor Ahai thrust the smoking sword through her living heart. It is said that her cry of anguish and ecstasy left a crack across the face of the moon, but her blood and her soul and her strength and her courage all went into the steel. Such is the tale of the forging of Lightbringer, the Red Sword of Heroes.
Davos I, A Clash of Kings
Azor Ahai murdered his wife for a magic sword. Davos Seaworth himself a married man with kids after hearing the story tries to imagine doing the same thing to his own wife and shudders at the thought of it.
A true sword of fire, now, that would be a wonder to behold. Yet at such a cost . . . When he thought of Nissa Nissa, it was his own Marya he pictured, a good-natured plump woman with sagging breasts and a kindly smile, the best woman in the world. He tried to picture himself driving a sword through her, and shuddered. I am not made of the stuff of heroes, he decided. If that was the price of a magic sword, it was more than he cared to pay.
Davos I, A Clash of Kings
Blood magic rituals in general are also almost always framed negatively in this series. Dany murders Mirri Maz Durr in order to get her Dragons and Stannis’ story is almost certainly going to be culminating in the burning of his Daughter Shireen. It’s because of this I highly doubt that Martin is going to absolve them and say Blood magic and human sacrifice is okay if you’re “saving” the world.
The Second red flag ironically comes from Melisandre herself ie the woman who is dead set on Azor Ahai being a saviour.
"An ant who hears the words of a king may not comprehend what he is saying," Melisandre said, "and all men are ants before the fiery face of god. If sometimes I have mistaken a warning for a prophecy or a prophecy for a warning, the fault lies in the reader, not the book. But this I know for a certainty—envoys and pardons will not serve you now, no more than leeches. You must show the realm a sign. A sign that proves your power!"
Davos V, ASOS
Melisandre fully admits throughout the series that not only are the visions incredibly hard to read but that prophecy can be mistaken for a warning and vice versa this begs the question: Could something similar be happening with the above prophecies?
The third red flag is in A Feast for Crows when Aemon tells Samwell he believes that Daenerys is Azor Ahai come again.
On Braavos, it had seemed possible that Aemon might recover. Xhondo's talk of dragons had almost seemed to restore the old man to himself. That night he ate every bite Sam put before him. "No one ever looked for a girl," he said. "It was a prince that was promised, not a princess. Rhaegar, I thought . . . the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King's Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet. What fools we were, who thought ourselves so wise! The error crept in from the translation. Dragons are neither male nor female, Barth saw the truth of that, but now one and now the other, as changeable as flame. The language misled us all for a thousand years. Daenerys is the one, born amidst salt and smoke. The dragons prove it." Just talking of her seemed to make him stronger. "I must go to her. I must. Would that I was even ten years younger."
Samwell IV, A Feast for Crows
Most people (like Aemon) are so caught up in the moment that characters are finally having a EUREKA! moment and getting the prophecy “right” that they ignore a very concerning caveat.
What fools we were, who thought ourselves so wise! The error crept in from the translation […] The language misled us all for a thousand years.
We have just learned that a very important aspect of the prophecy might have been mistranslated and misled people for a millennium (if we take Aemon’s word) now we should be asking the question: Could another mistranslation have happened? One that will have very grave consequences?
There are also in my opinion several red flags and potentially deliberate inconsistencies in the lore of the series and the imagery surrounding dragons that might point towards a prophecy twist as @/trinuvel puts it in her essays on this subject.
The fandom often points to passages like this to imply Daenerys will be key to defeating the others as Azor Ahai.
That night she dreamt that she was Rhaegar, riding to the Trident. But she was mounted on a dragon, not a horse. When she saw the Usurper's rebel host across the river they were armored all in ice, but she bathed them in dragonfire and they melted away like dew and turned the Trident into a torrent. Some small part of her knew that she was dreaming, but another part exulted. This is how it was meant to be. The other was a nightmare, and I have only now awakened.
Daenerys III, A Storm of Swords
Now while I’ll admit at first blush it seems very cut and dry however I feel like it is important to note that she is imagining herself as Rhaegar burning the usurper’s (Robert Baratheon) rebel host at the Trident. Reminder which houses make up that host? Stark, Tully, Arryn and Baratheon. 3/4 of those houses (or what remains of them) could very well join up once Sansa goes North and depending on how Edmure fairs in Winds of Winter. There is also one other passage where armoured in Ice is mentioned.
Burning shafts hissed upward, trailing tongues of fire. Scarecrow brothers tumbled down, black cloaks ablaze. "Snow," an eagle cried, as foemen scuttled up the ice like spiders. Jon was armored in black ice, but his blade burned red in his fist. As the dead men reached the top of the Wall he sent them down to die again. He slew a greybeard and a beardless boy, a giant, a gaunt man with filed teeth, a girl with thick red hair. Too late he recognized Ygritte. She was gone as quick as she'd appeared.
Jon XII, A Dance with Dragons
The fact that this is the only other time armoured in Ice appears is concerning. While it doesn’t necessarily disprove Daenerys will fight the Others or is destined to fight them that doesn’t necessarily mean she will be friendly with our favourites over in Westros.
For better or worse when we meet her in the next book, Danaerys will begin to start fulfilling all the prophecies centred around her and take up the role they require in The Winds of Winter and because of that I think what happens at Volantis could be much grimmer then the fandom as a whole currently believes. Not only is Dany going to be leading three fully grown dragons to Volantis, she’ll be leading an army comprised of sellsword companies, Ironborn men (and ships), as well as all the able bodied Dothraki warriors (especially if she is indeed their prophesied figure) all of which aren’t as militarily disciplined as the unsullied. The fate of Volantis and how Daenerys deals with that city might not only be the capstone of her arc in Essos, it may also determine what her role will be going into A Dream of Spring.
Thank you for reading
Acknowledgements
A very special thank you to all the wonderful tumblr users who wrote and organised their thoughts into numerous metas as an easy reference.
