#data for progress

[justinspoliticalcorner]

EXCLUSIVE: Dem Voters Overwhelming Say US Should Cut Aid to Israel Until It Stops Attacking Civilians

From Israel-Palestine to economic policy, polling from Data for Progress and Zeteo shows likely primary voters prefer a more progressive app

Prem Thakker at Zeteo:

An overwhelming share of likely Democratic primary voters – 71% – say the US should restrict military aid to Israel until it stops attacking civilians in Gaza, supports Palestinian rights, and commits to a long-term peace process, according to a recent Data for Progress–Zeteo poll of likely Democratic primary voters. As the Democratic Party faces an identity crisis following its 2024 loss, the new data point is yet another indicator that Democratic voters want to depart from the party establishment consensus in favor of something more progressive.

And it’s not just Israel-Palestine. The voters surveyed were asked to choose between a more progressive and a more moderate approach to six issues: the Israel-Palestine conflict, transgender sports policy, economic policy, healthcare, climate policy, and immigration. On nearly every issue, the poll found likely Democratic primary voters clearly favored a more progressive approach. The dynamic was strongest in the case of Israel-Palestine. While 71% of respondents preferred the US condition military aid to Israel, just 20% chose the more moderate option: continuing to support Israel and “its right to defend itself,” while “encouraging efforts to reduce civilian harm and promote long-term peace” – the Biden administration’s posture.

Voters under the age of 45 felt even stronger – with 80% favoring restricting aid and just 13% supporting the status quo posture. Such numbers were striking, given how the Kamala Harris campaign refused to diverge from the Biden administration on several issues, infamously on Israel and Palestine. That stubborn refusal contributed to Harris’ eventual loss – and in the months since Donald Trump took power, the world has witnessed an even more severe ramp-up of violence against Palestinians and repression of their supporters in the US. The new polling underscores that Democratic voters have coalesced on an opinion starkly different from what the Biden-Harris administration maintained during the final year of its presidency.

Other Key Issues

The Democratic primary voters surveyed were more split on immigration – with 49% favoring a progressive approach that includes reducing deportations, expanding asylum access, and providing a pathway to citizenship for all undocumented immigrants, while 48% favored the Democratic status quo position of increasing border security while creating a legal pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants with long-term ties to the US. Voters were less split when it came to healthcare: 60% of respondents favored a Medicare for All system that would replace most private insurance with a government-funded plan. Conversely, 37% preferred the more moderate approach: improving and expanding the Affordable Care Act, while maintaining private insurance as the main option for most Americans. Those under 45 felt strongly: 70% supported Medicare for All, and 28% favored the latter. Climate has taken a backseat in the US discourse, but the effects have not: 2023 was the hottest recorded year on Earth – and then that record was broken again last year. Some 54% of likely Democratic voters preferred a Green New Deal, while 41% favored the Biden administration’s approach: investing in clean energy and reducing fossil fuel use over time through “market-driven solutions.” While some pundits and lawmakers fixate on “Kamala is for they/them” as the reason Democrats lost in 2024 (and not other possibilities, like unconditionally supporting a genocide, appearing as Diet Republicans, or refusing to distinguish themselves from a previously losing ticket) respondents were less cautious on the matter of transgender people. Some 63% preferred an approach that opposed federal transgender sports bans and supported allowing local school districts and athletic organizations to set participation policies. About 27% supported a federal ban to “reduce political conflict over this issue.” And on economic policy, 62% favored enforcing strong public standards and limiting corporate influence on development and building, while 31% supported focusing on building more housing and infrastructure, even if that meant less government oversight and regulation and fewer restrictions on developers.

According to Data For Progress/Zeteo poll conducted between April 9th and 14th, 71% of likely Democratic primary voters prefer that military aid to Israel be restricted.

On non-Palestine/Israel issues, the progressive side won out, and even immigration was a push.

[berniesrevolution]

Opinion: Here's How To Take Back The Supreme Court

The progressive blitz on the Supreme Court is working, and a path to reform is now clear.

Brett Kavanaugh changed perceptions of the Supreme Court for good. Now, the court’s right-wing majority is preparing to make one of its most partisan decisions in recent memory: approving an explicit attempt to benefit the Republican Party by adding a citizenship question to the census. The ruling will come with the court in a precarious position; after decades of solid support from Democrats, the court is now seen in strongly partisan terms, survey data shows.

Democrats long remained relatively supportive of the court, despite its history of opposing progressive goals, as I wrote last year. Now, thanks to research conducted with progressive organization Take Back the Court, we have evidence that progressives are putting meaningful pressure on the court, and that presidential candidates who urge judicial reform should continue to make their case aggressively.

Data for Progress analyzed the 2018 Cooperative Congressional Election Studies (CCES) survey, which has asked about approval of the Supreme Court since 2008. In 2016, 56% of Democrats approved of the court and 30% disapproved. By 2018, in a stunning reversal, 23% of Democrats approved and 63% disapproved. Republicans had the reverse flip, from a decade of disapproval to strong support.

CCES has also asked respondents to describe the perceived ideology of the court. In the 2016 survey, 37% of Democrats saw the court as conservative, compared with 64% in 2018. Among independents, 22% saw the court as conservative in 2016, rising to 47% in 2018.

Much of this is due to disdain for Kavanaugh, who consistently has the lowest favorability ratings of any Supreme Court justice. The CCES asked respondents whether they would have voted to confirm both Neil Gorsuch and Kavanaugh. Respondents were evenly split evenly in favor of Gorsuch, while they opposed appointing Kavanaugh 54% to 46%, with 59% of women opposed.

In research we conducted with YouGov Blue, we included a very partisan cue in a study on court opinion. In one condition, we simply displayed the names of justices; in another, we also told respondents the name of the president who appointed them. This led to significant changes in attitudes — and importantly, a rise in the perceptions of judges as fundamentally partisan actors motivated by political views and not the law.

(Continue Reading)

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Americans Are Turning On ICE

New polling finds a plurality of Americans now support abolishing ICE, while even fewer approve of the government agency

Curtis Fric at Polling USA:

Less than a week ago, Renee Good was shot and killed by ICE officers in an unprovoked incident that has led to nationwide unrest, alongside the embattlement of the city of Minneapolis amid ongoing ICE raids at homes and in the streets. Enough time has passed to allow the American public to hear the news and form an opinion, and the polls suggest the public is not thrilled with ICE, unless you are a Republican. YouGov found that 52% of Americans disapprove of the job ICE is doing, including 85% of Democrats, 56% of Independents, and only 14% of Republicans. On the flip side, 39% approve of ICE, with Republicans being the strongest supporters of the organization at 80%. Quinnipiac’s latest poll found results very similar to YouGov’s. Quinnipiac found that 57% of Americans disapprove of the way ICE is handling its job, including 94% of Democrats, 64% of Independents, and a mere 12% of Republicans. Consequently, 39% of Americans, and 84% of Republicans, approve of the job ICE is doing across the nation.

That poll from Quinnipiac found that 82% of respondents had seen the video of Renee Good being killed by ICE, with a similar response rate across all demographics. With most Americans aware of the shooting, Quinnipiac found that 53% of Americans say the shooting of Good was not justified, while 35% say it was justified. Data For Progress found similar results to Quinnipiac, with 52% saying the shooting was not justified, while 36% say it was. Between 68% and 77% of Republicans say the shooting was justified, compared to 28% to 30% of Independents, or 4% to 8% of Democrats. Given the nature of the shooting, YouGov asked a number of questions following the event. One question asked Americans whether they believe the ICE agent in question, Jonathan Ross, should be criminally charged in the killing of Good. That question found 53% of Americans agreeing that Ross should be charged, while 30% do not believe he should.

Recent polls from multiple places reveal something: A majority of Americans are opposed to ICE’s brutal immigration raids and say that the killing of Renee Nicole Good was not justified. As for the abolition of ICE, polling of the issue has now become a near 50-50 issue.

[justinspoliticalcorner]

New Poll Shows Massive Opposition To The Active US Government Censorship Of Trans People

The poll also shows heavy support for transgender youth care, opposition to the military ban, and opposition to the prosecution of teachers

Erin Reed at Erin In The Morning:

Over the past two months, a wave of executive orders has unleashed a coordinated rollback of transgender rights across the United States. Transgender people have been scrubbed from federal websites, health resources erased, and even the Stonewall National Monument—honoring a protest led in large part by trans activists—was rewritten to celebrate only “LGB rights,” erasing the T entirely. At the same time, healthcare access has been stripped away, passport updates halted, teachers threatened with prosecution for affirming trans youth, service members purged from the military, and trans existence erased in federal protections. Now, a new poll reveals overwhelming public opposition to the Trump administration’s sweeping anti-trans agenda—from censorship to criminalizing support for trans students and more.

A new poll from Data for Progress reveals broad public rejection of the Trump administration’s quiet campaign to erase LGBTQ+ health information from federal websites. According to the data, 52 percent of respondents oppose the removal of information on LGBTQ+ health disparities and nondiscrimination protections, while just 26 percent support it. The numbers reflect overwhelming resistance to the administration’s censorship effort—one that has already seen some reversals in court. In one particularly egregious case, an entire national student health dataset was taken down solely because it included questions about gender identity. The poll also found significant public opposition to the erasure of transgender people from federal history and language. Respondents opposed removing mentions of transgender people from the Stonewall National Monument website by a 23-point margin, and opposed altering “LGBTQ+” to “LGB” in government materials by 22 points. These changes came after the Trump administration revised the monument’s website to frame the Stonewall uprising as a fight solely for “LGB rights”—a revision that ignores the central role played by transgender and gender nonconforming leaders. Even Sylvia Rivera, a prominent trans activist who helped lead the uprising, had her biography altered to say she fought for “gay and rights”—a revision that’s not only historically dishonest but grammatically incoherent. The censorship of transgender people from public-facing websites wasn’t the only executive action met with broad public disapproval. The Trump administration’s push to ban transgender healthcare is also deeply unpopular. When asked which statement they agreed with more, a clear majority—55%—said that “families and physicians should be the ones making decisions about transgender youth medical care, not the government,” while just 33% supported government bans on “gender-related care for trans youth.” Among respondents who personally know a transgender person, support for gender affirming care jumped to 65%, with only 30% favoring government intervention.

A Data For Progress poll conducted between March 14th and 21st reveals that the majority of Americans oppose Tyrant 47’s efforts to erase trans people in both online material and in policies, such as the gender-affirming care ban and transgender military ban executive orders.

[justinspoliticalcorner]

EXCLUSIVE: More American Voters Than Not Say Israel Is Committing Genocide in Gaza

A new Data for Progress poll finds a clear majority of American voters also wants the US to prioritize aid to Gaza over arms to Israel.

Ryan O'Donnell at Zeteo News:

In recent months, a hunger crisis has unfolded in Gaza as the Israeli government has severely restricted aid. More than 1,000 people seeking aid have been killed by Israeli forces, according to the United Nations. People in Gaza are experiencing what experts have called a “worst-case scenario of famine” – a devastating shortage of food that is causing 1 in 3 people to go without eating for days at a time. Some parents have reported that their children have lost half their body weight. In April 2024, Data for Progress polling found that 39% of voters believed that Israel was committing genocide in Gaza. In a new survey, 47% of voters now believe Israel is committing genocide, compared with just 33% who say it isn’t — a margin of 14 points.

Additionally, a majority of voters (54%) – including 75% of Democrats and 59% of Independents – think the US should prioritize humanitarian aid for civilians in Gaza over military aid and weapons for Israel. Only 30% think the US should prioritize military aid and weapons for Israel.

In October 2023, two weeks after Hamas killed more than 1,200 people in Israel and Israel retaliated with a series of airstrikes on Gaza, 41% of voters agreed with the following statement: “Israel has committed human rights abuses against the people of Palestine.” By May 2025, this had risen to 50%. Today, a majority of voters (53%) agree that Israel has committed human rights abuses against Palestinians.

A recent Data For Progress poll conducted between August 1st and 3rd of this year reveals that 47% of Americans believe that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, an increase of 8% from their April 2024 poll at 39%.

[justinspoliticalcorner]

EXCLUSIVE: Buttigieg, Booker, and AOC Lead 2028 Democratic Primary Field Without Harris in the Race

New more precise polling from Zeteo and DFP shows no candidate holds a dominant lead – a contrast with other surveys that have shown Harris

Mehdi Hasan at Zeteo:

While the 2028 Democratic primary is several years away, Democratic candidates are already laying the groundwork for their potential campaigns. Recent Data for Progress polling has found deep discontent among the Democratic base, with Democrats wanting a younger generation of leadership who will do more to fight against Donald Trump and the MAGA agenda. The political figures who are best able to tap into that resistance energy may be able to gain significant support for a presidential run in 2028. In collaboration with Zeteo, Data for Progress conducted a poll of likely Democratic primary voters to analyze the current state of the 2028 field. While many polls of the 2028 Democratic presidential primary survey registered or likely voters who identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents, this survey specifically focused on voters who are likely to participate in Democratic primaries, better capturing a sample more closely aligned with the electorate that will actually decide the nomination in 2028. As the most recent Democratic nominee, former Vice President Kamala Harris remains one of the most well-known Democratic figures. However, Harris is not certain to run for president in 2028 – she is currently considering a run for California governor, where recent polls have shown her to be the clear frontrunner. In a hypothetical Democratic primary for president, including the 2024 nominee, Harris leads with just 18% of the vote, followed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (14%), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (12%), and Sen. Cory Booker (12%). However, when Harris is taken out of the equation – and respondents who chose Harris have their vote redistributed to their second choice – Buttigieg leads the pack with a plurality of 17%, followed closely by Booker and Ocasio-Cortez with 14% each, and Governor Gavin Newsom with 10%. None of the other potential candidates tested break into double-digits.

It’s important to note that presidential primary polling this far out is generally a contest of name recognition. However, to further gauge Democratic primary voters’ perceptions of the potential candidates, the survey asked whether they would consider voting for each of the potential candidates.

According to a new 2028 Democratic Primary poll from Data For Progress/Zeteo conducted between April 9th and 14th with a 4% margin for error, Kamala Harris narrowly leads with 18%, then Pete Buttigieg comes in close at 14%, and AOC and Cory Booker with 12% each. With Harris removed, Buttigieg leads at 17%, and AOC and Booker tie at 14%.

See Also:

LGBTQ Nation: New poll says Pete Buttigieg & AOC could end up battling for presidential nomination

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Do Dems Need to Break Up with the Legacy Media?

The media landscape has changed and Democrats need to change our mentality

Dan Pfeiffer at The Message Box:

Even in a media environment where consumers have unlimited choices, a 60 Minutes interview is the coup de grace. A campaign would do almost anything to be featured. The highly-rated program comes on right after NFL football — making it the one thing on broadcast TV that still draws a mass audience. Donald Trump pulled out of the 60 Minutes interview, ceding the entire show to his opponent. In the campaign's final weeks, Trump also reportedly pulled out of interviews with CNBC and NBC News. He turned down an opportunity to participate in a prime-time CNN town hall. In fact, Trump didn’t do a single interview with a traditional news outlet in the campaign's final stretch. No national broadcast interviews, no sit-downs with local TV anchors or newspapers.

The winning candidate ignored the traditional media, focusing instead on partisan media outlets and politics-adjacent podcasts. While this change isn’t new, it seems clear that 2024 was a pivot point for the role of the legacy media in politics. Democratic communications strategies have evolved over the years — and the Harris campaign did some very innovative things. Nevertheless, our approach to communicating with voters continues to depend heavily on the legacy media. When we have something to say, we look for a cable or broadcast network to say it on. We spend an inordinate amount of time thinking about the morning tipsheets and which surrogates are booked on cable news. New York Times headlines can be a party-wide obsession. Do Democrats need to follow Trump’s lead and break up with the legacy media? The Right Wing media’s advantage was particularly decisive during this election. This is the first in a series of posts discussing how Trump outmessaged us in the 2024 election and what we can do in the future. 

A Changed Dynamic

For a long time, the political press was the most powerful force in politics. So powerful that they were known as the “Fourth Estate” with the capacity to make or break a campaign. The list of failed presidential candidates who were unable to win over the tastemakers in the media is long. One can credibly argue that unfair press coverage from the New York Times and others were a significant factor in Hillary Clinton’s 2016 loss.

The traditional media has been losing relevance for a while now. The death spiral of the political media is a much longer, more complicated story (I wrote a lot about it in my most recent book), but there have been a few dynamics driving this descent.  The first is the rapid pace of technological innovation. Newspapers were once the most powerful entities in media. A presidential campaign wanted nothing more than a great picture on the front page of the Des Moines Register, Philadelphia Inquirer, or Detroit Free Press. Most local papers are shells of themselves — simply carrion for private equity to drain the last few cents before closing up shop. While the New York Times and Wall Street Journal are thriving, the Washington Post is bleeding money and full of controversy, and USA Today barely registers (I had to Google if it was still published). Cable and broadcast viewership is down as more consumers cut the cord or turn to social media for news. Legacy media is simply reaching fewer people. Second, the media reaches people who are less likely to believe what they read/see/hear. 

[...] A Data for Progress poll found that Kamala Harris won voters who consumed “a great deal” and “a lot” of news but lost the voters who consumed no news by a whopping 19 points.

The New New Media

The biggest media events of the 2024 campaign were not on 60 Minutes or Meet the Press. They didn’t involve the New York Times or any of the major cable channels. They were interviews with podcasters Joe Rogan and Alex Cooper. The media titans are influencers with large followings and parasocial relationships with their audiences. Many voters no longer trust media institutions, but instead trust folks with whom they often spend hours every week. A Pew Knight study found that one-in-five Americans – 37% of adults under 30 – regularly get their news from social media influencers. Trump and the Republicans have better understood this shift than Democrats. At the end of the campaign, nearly all of Trump’s media interactions were with Right-leaning podcasters commanding massive social media followings. During Trump’s victory speech, UFC boss Dana White came on stage and specifically thanked Adin Ross, the NELK Boys, Theo Von, and the folks from Barstool Sports. The GOP has actively tried to support their influencers with interviews and attention. While Kamala Harris did appear on Cooper’s wildly popular Call Her Daddy podcast, most Democrats kept podcasters and news influencers at arms length.

Dan Pfeiffer’s latest Message Box Substack post shows that the Democratic Party’s overreliance on legacy media at the expense of nontraditional media came back to bite them, and that Dems should focus more on nontraditional media outlets in addition to the legacy MSM.