leipzig 2024

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leipzig 2024
Ayrılanlar bilirmiş ancak ayrılığın rengini,
Kaybetmeyen ne bilsin yüreğinin dengini...
@ayhancabakislar
Athen
Ook deze wonderlijk of wetenschappelijke boeken komen aan bod op 7 maart.
Kijken jullie er ook zo naar uit?!
👀
There's been a great amount of consternation over the results of the November 22nd elections in the Netherlands. Much of the hysteria comes from people who know nothing about Dutch politics or how the constitutional system works there.
We see news stories in Anglophone media saying that Geert Wilders and his far right PVV party "won" the election.
It's true that the PVV won more seats than any other single party there. However what's often left out is that the PVV won just 37 seats in the lower house of the Dutch parliament (called the Tweede Kamer) out of a total of 150 seats. A governing majority requires 76 seats and the PVV is 39 seats short of that. The PVV simply cannot govern by itself.
Politics in the Netherlands is quite fragmented. And because of an overly strict system of proportional representation for the Tweede Kamer, a lot of little shit parties representing narrow interests manage to win seats. 15 parties won seats in the recent election.
The outgoing VVD (24 seats) and the GLPVDA (25 seats) have already said they would not join a coalition with Wilders's PVV. The new NSC (20 seats) has been very iffy; its leader said he would not support the PVV's anti-Islamic policies which would violate the Dutch constitution. Don't expect DENK, (3 seats), an immigrant rights party, to join a PVV coalition. VOLT (2 seats) is a pro-EU party which would not likely join in a coalition led by Wilders who is anti-EU. The SP (5 seats) is a socialist party diametrically opposed to the PVV. D66 (9 seats) is a socially progressive and its membership would probably not be comfortable in a Wilders-led coalition.
So if you add up the seats for parties which may have reservations about the PVV, it's a clear majority.
HOWEVER, Wilders may try to entice one some of those parties with pledges of moderation; though that may not sit well with hardliners in his own party.
Another possibility would be for the GLPVDA, VVD, NSC, and D66 to try to form a government. They do have 78 seats, two more than needed for a majority. Though in Dutch politics it wouldn't look good for the party with the largest number of seats to be left out of government.
A more likely possibility would be for the VVD or NSC to prop up a Wilders government without joining it. This way they would not be tainted by direct association with him and could pull the rug out from under him if he becomes too extreme.
One last option is simply to string out coalition negotiations while a caretaker runs the country. It usually takes about three months to form a government under normal circumstances in the Netherlands. But in 2017 it took a record 225 days to do so. In neighboring Belgium it took 589 days to form a government back in 2010-2011.
So people freaking out over Geert Wilders should dial down their stress levels at least a bit. Even if he becomes prime minister he'll be limited in what he can do. Though this election should serve as a warning to other democratic countries not to take things for granted.
Glück im Leben heißt,
jemanden zu finden, der
weiß, dass du nicht
perfekt bist, dich aber so
behandelt als wärst du es.
(via Jeremy Denk's Piano Lessons - YouTube)
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