#enthusiasm gap

[tomorrowusa]

James Talarico's Primary Win Attributed to ‘Colbert Bump’ - LateNighter

James Talarico’s Texas Senate primary victory is fueling talk of a “Colbert Bump” after his newsmaking 'Late Show with Stephen Colbert' inte

That article may be overstating things a bit, but James Talarico's victory in the Texas Democratic primary for US Senate was certainly helped by the uproar over attempts to block his appearance on Stephen Colbert's late night show.

Texas State Rep. James Talarico’s appearance on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert is being credited with propelling him to victory in Tuesday’s Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Republican John Cornyn. With 97% of the vote now in, Talarico won with 52.8% of the vote, defeating U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who received 45.9%. The outcome stands in stark contrast to polling conducted shortly before Talarico’s late-night appearance. According to The Texas Politics Project, Crockett led the race with the support of 56% of likely Democratic primary voters, compared with 44% for Talarico.

Talarico had been edging up a little in polls. White House MAGA operatives noticed and likely hinted to FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr to lean on CBS. CBS then told Colbert not to air his segment with Talarico. Colbert complied but then posted the banned segment on YouTube and spoke at length during his monologue about the MAGA/FCC/CBS attempts to censor him.

This drama got an enormous amount of publicity and caused donations to pour into Talarico's campaign. The attempt by Trump and his pals to hinder Talarico blew up in their faces. Talarico became a symbol of anti-MAGA resistance around the same time a Democrat comfortably flipped a Texas State Senate seat in a special election in a ruby red district won by Trump in 2024 by 17 points.

There were certainly other factors. Talarico is a progressive who sometimes uses religious language like the late President Jimmy Carter. His Hispanic heritage helped him with many voters. But it certainly helped being publicly identified as an "Anti-Trump" in a high profile way when The Orange One is tanking in the polls.

The Texas primary turnout should worry Republicans.

^^^ The total number of Democrats who voted in the Texas primary was notably higher than the number of Republicans who voted in the same primary. This hasn't happened in decades in a midterms primary there. And BOTH parties had very high profile races.

Texas Democrats can immediately start to concentrate on mending fences and preparing for the November election. But the two highest vote-getting Republican US Senate candidates must face each other in a May 26th runoff election. One is Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton whose level of scandal and corruption may rival Trump's. He's best known nationally as a far right troll. The other is four-term incumbent John Cornyn who makes margarine on white bread seem exciting.

[tomorrowusa]

Why Trump — Not Biden — Might Have An Enthusiasm Problem

The Trump campaign has found its silver lining in an avalanche of awful polling numbers: Voters who support Donald Trump are enthusiastic about his candidacy. P…

Much has been written about the enthusiasm gap. But less attention has been paid to what could be called negative enthusiasm.

The other side will obviously not like your candidate very much. But there is a difference between simply disliking somebody and utterly despising somebody.

Republicans don’t like Joe Biden, but that’s almost mild compared to what Democrats think about Donald Trump.

Trump may try to fire up his declining base by wrapping himself in the Confederate flag or by making racist comments. But when he does those things he fires up his opponents disproportionately more.

It’s a sign of his weakness that Trump is unable to expand his base while the demographic groups which support him grow smaller.

Of course polls mean nothing if people don’t vote. Are you registered to vote? If you are, have you recently checked on the status of your registration? Remember that registration is tied to address. You must register at your new address every time you move.

[shmaltzandmenudo]

Will We See a Blue Wave in 2018?

Much has been said about a blue wave during these midterms. A blue wave is certainly possible in the House of Representatives but might be all Democrats could hope for during this election cycle.

The prospect of a blue wave has been the focus of much of the discussion surrounding the 2018 midterms. It’s a possibility because there have been encouraging signs for Democrats since the latter half of 2017.

The Democratic Party has a steep hill to climb in these midterms, but as I’ve said before, the party received a boost near the end of 2017 in the form of Republican retirements and…

View On WordPress

[raemd95]

"We Vote For Survival": You’re Damn Right Electability Matters To Black Voters

“We Vote For Survival”: You’re Damn Right Electability Matters To Black Voters

Coming off his near-upset in the Iowa caucus and his massive win in New Hampshire, polls (PDF) are showing that more voters nationally are “feeling the Bern,” with Bernie Sanders now appearing to have the momentum against Hillary Clinton. These polls seem to confirm two theories.

First, the enthusiasm gap that many of us have long written about and that Hillary Clinton struggles with is very real.

View On WordPress

[liberalsarecool]

As attention shifts to the 2012 cycle, the Republican advantage seems to have largely disappeared. In fact, a new report from Public Policy Polling suggests it's Democrats who enjoy the enthusiasm edge.

...Democrats are now more excited about voting this fall than Republicans are, reversing the enthusiasm gap that plagued the party in 2010.

Our last national survey for Daily Kos found that 58% of Democrats were 'very excited' about voting this fall, compared to 54% of Republicans. Six months ago the figures were 48% of Democrats 'very excited' and Republicans at the same 54%. Generally you would expect voters to get more excited as the election gets nearer. That trend is occurring on the Democratic side, but not for the GOP.

[knberg-blog]

Election 2010: Brookline Obama Supporters "Get Out the Vote" Amid Questions of Enthusiasm Gap

11/1/2010

by Kirsten B.

At mid-morning Monday, the Democrats sounded prematurely conquered. 

Predictions of ambivalence and apathy among the besieged incumbent party rang from every corner of the staging headquarters  of the Obama-backed Organizing for America in Brookline Village: the muffled whipping of the faded maroon awning left by Heads Up Salon—which closed in 2009 under Obama’s watch, the light rattling of askew “Barney!” signs against walls of peeling latex paint, the shuffle of unused blue-hued pamphlets being stacked high on uneven groupings of miscellaneous card tables, and the jarring echo of every keystroke made on the laptop of the Get Out the Vote (GOTV) campaign’s director.

But by night, the reverberations of dozens of pairs of Nikes and Asics scuffing the wood-planked floors and the hasty ripping of corrugated cardboard boxes that produced more of the dwindling blue “Vote TODAY!” door knockers easily drowned the noises of indifference.  The rhythmic pounding of the entrance door released steady sets of three or four volunteers whose standard-issue clipboards were stacked, ready to go canvass for the candidates whose stickers they wore prominently on their thick coats.           

But the “enthusiasm gap,” the pundit-endorsed idea that revved-up Republicans will go to the polls in droves while disenchanted Democrats will stay home this midterm election cycle, worries some Obama supporters. 

Even in Brookline, whose Fourth District and Bay State are characteristically colored cobalt on election result maps, polls have shown that Democratic incumbents Barney Frank and Deval Patrick have single or barely double-digit leads among likely voters.  Fears of a disillusionment with the Obama presidency sweeping the nation coupled with the party’s devastating loss of the late Ted Kennedy’s U.S. Senate seat to Republican Scott Brown early this year caused speculation that changing tides may strike home.

“Try as they might, President Obama and the Democrats so far have not given liberal supporters a clear reason to pull out the stops for them this electoral season,” said Boston University social science professor Thomas Whalen.

Ron Homer, a friend of Deval Patrick who appointed him chair of the MassHousing board in 2009, said this was exactly the sentiment he and fellow pamphlet-armed volunteers were hitting the streets and the phone lines of Brookline to combat.

“It’s hard to be enthusiastic when times are so bad. It is not about a lack of enthusiasm, but a concern with our own issues rather than politics that really might heard us, but it is for that reason that wee need people like Patrick to make important decisions,” he said.

“I am worried about he enthusiasm gap, but people I know are nervous and excited about getting out to vote. That said, the people I know are pretty hard core Democrats,” he said and smiled, before being gestured by David, Suzette and Mark to leave to canvass houses along the streetlamp-lit sidewalks of residential Brookline.

Helen Liviton, who bundled herself in a thickly-knit scarf and knee-length coat, agreed that liberals like herself would likely go to the polls, but still volunteered to go door-to-door multiple shifts for the last-minute effort.

“Republicans are scaring me and that is why I am going out,” she said. 

After reviewing a page on canvassing procedures, murmuring the bold type-font aloud, she added, “I am 64. I have been through a lot of elections. Personally I think the Republicans this election are enthusiastic in that they are more fanatical, but I still think Dems will come out and vote.”

Others exercised cautious optimism in their assessments.

“Part of me wonders how much of the enthusiasm gap is going to be a self-fulfilling prophecy,” said Shira Fischer, 31, as she waited in they cycling line of volunteers signing out maps, address lists and “Because of Barney” and “Vote Deval Patrick” leaflets. 

“I would be very unhappy if Charlie Baker won, if any of our candidates lost really, but that is why we are here. People can’t take these things for granted, we can’t afford to make assumptions.”

Claire Chazen, the Deputy Director of this GOTV, professes she is still as in love with Barack Obama as she was when she was in college in 2008. Chazen said that in Massachusetts Democrats in particular, regardless of outside trends, are much easier to be enthusiastic about.   After she graduated, Chazen even left a Democratic campaign she worked on in Ohio because she disliked the candidate, and moved to Massachusetts specifically to work in Deval Patrick’s gubernatorial reelection bid.

“This passion gets me to literally walk the extra mile when I canvass for the candidates. And when the undecided and unsure people do decide to turn out to the polls, they will not vote for the angry candidates, for Charlie Baker’s fear mongering. They will look to the ballot and vote for optimism,” she said.

But for now Chazen’s fingers flipped through a box of crunching manila envelopes as she unpacked and distributed campaign literature and churned out fully outfitted canvassers, smiling and wishing them luck as they exited the building with a burst of a shivering autumn air.

"We will find out tomorrow night,” said Lambert, “but I think if anything, I think that the election is working against the enthusiasm gaps.  Since races are so close, I know I really can feel if I and my friends turn just a few extra votes it can make a difference.”

“That is something to be enthusiastic about.”