What do you think will happen in episode 4?
Dear nonny,
I do think that is a bit difficult to tell: After the dragonpit meeting Jon sent a letter to Sansa, where he told her that he had bent the knee and that Dany and he would come to Winterfell and fight and that he had pledged to fight for Dany’s claim afterwards.
I always thought, that Jon wanted to keep this promise, if he survived. I think he always expected to die and trusted Sansa to carry on from there, but here he is still alive.
So, I guess personally he would feel obliged to fulfill his promise. The first part of the plan actually went through as they wanted: Dany and her armies and dragons helped in the war for the dawn, even if they were not as crucial as Jon has thought. So I would say, Jon is stuck with his promise. Dany always thought it was his war (as she made clear in episode 2) and she will certainly expect him to keep his word.
And she needs him to keep his word: the power balance has shifted. The Dothraki and the Unsullied, Dany’s armies, have been decimated brutally, her truest friend Jorah died, her dragons are wounded... Cersei has hired the GC. Before the war for the dawn, the North needed Dany, however much they disliked her, now she needs them.
I think she is not totally unjustified for wanting a pay-off for her help. That she kept her promise and actually fought with them might even soften some of the dislike she had to face.
The thing is, that in additon the conditions for her war have changed. Jon has the better claim and therefore they should fight for his claim, if it is really about a Targ restoration. We might see her suggesting marriage in order to absorb Jon’s claim (as shaky as this solution is)
I can’t see Dany doing a flip and declaring Jon the rightful heir. I do think it would make sense, if Jon tries to bargain with this leverage though. He could approach her, promise to keep his parentage a secret he takes to the grave, back her claim and going with her and in exchange he could bargain for Northern Independence. This kind of sacrificial move would be very much like Jon Snow tbh.
It might mean, that he will still leave Sansa and Arya in the dark about his parentage, that he will swear Sam to secrecy as well as Bran. But I think he has to make an effort that will keep them in line: Northern Independece could be it. I am quite sure he would reject any marriage offer.
As @athimbleful suggested, it is likely that Dany would take Jon with her to war, if only to have an assurance that the North would not move against her or somehow hinder her campaign.
So, this is not a situation which is absolutely unsolvable, but Jon’s and Dany’s interest are set against each other and I can only see the alliance kept on, if Jon agrees to accompagny Dany. I hope he doesn’t do so without negotiating for something. It could be Sansa’s and Arya’s freedom as well.
We don’t know how far Jon controls Rhaegal. If he has not bonded with him, Dany might still have control and a bit of power over Jon.
Anyway Dany is ruthless and ready to move against Joon’s family as she has shown in episode 1. Jon’s disadvantage is, that he has still people he cares for. Dany has lost the one person that was really her friend. In addition I think he will be somewhat stunned that they actually made it through the Long Night and will be at a loss as what to do now. I sincerely hope we finally get to see his PoV.
Then there is Bronn, still on his way to Winterfell. That will certainly turn the tables. I guess Tyrion will manage to talk his way out of this particular trap, but it means that he is unreliable. Varys is in some “Everything is futile” mood anyway. We will see further shifts in Dany’s entourage.
I guess, they will leave Winterfell, with Sansa staying behind, and Dany with the seemingly upper hand on her way to end Cersei.
I just suspect that Cersei will put the GC to good use, that Bronn might be up to some shit and that Jon’s parentage will not stay a secret. As she loses support Dany will be more and more desparate and will take risks. The plan to oust Cersei as Dany wanted from the moment she set foot on Westerosi soil, will most certainly not play out as she wanted. It is a miracle that the plan for the defeat of the Night King worked (even if only somewhat, with lots of luck).
I do think that we are still on the same trajectory as the books, which means that we’ll get DarkDany, Political Jon and Jonsa (probably as a political match), but I fear the way they will go about it will be dissatisfying. I suspect they will continue to hide the Starks’ PoV with the execption of minor hints, that nobody will get and will continue to make Dany’s choices reasonable in her own mind (which is probably how GRRM will go about it as well, tbh). This will probably be Winterhell 2.0. with Jon’s PoV hidden until the very end and the betrayal of Dany.
I could think of a million ways how to do this better, but brace yourself for zero House Stark interaction in the next episode and Jon back to being a hostage - this time for the good behaviour of the North. I think Jon will try to negotiate but he has more to lose than Dany, and if she threatens the people he loves, he will have no choice (in addition to him being held to his promise).
But the next three episodes won’t be just the defeat of Cersei. RLJ will become common knowledge and this will have an impact. And I doubt that Cersei will be the final bad boss.
Thanks for the ask!