Extended Shadow and Bone Timeline [Part 1]
It's autumn when the first trip to the Fold occurs.
At the beginning of Shadow and Bone, Alina's regiment marches from the military encampment at Poliznaya to Kribirsk. It takes them two weeks to get there. Alina gets her first glimpse of the Fold standing on the Vy, the wide road that had once led from Os Alta to the port cities on Ravka's western coast.
It is explicitly stated that the autumn sun was warm overhead. Alina takes notice of both the green and gold smells of autumn and the soft breeze at her back.
Alina almost gets trampled by the Darkling's coach before entering Kribirsk, and she spends the rest of the day at the Documents Tent. At dusk, she gets her first glimpse of the Grisha pavilion. The air is noticeably cooler.
Later at night, Alina sneaks out to meet Mal, and the plumes of their breath are visible in the cold air. In fact, it's cold enough for her to wish she had taken the time to grab her scarf and gloves.
The next morning, Mal and Alina are boarding the sandskiff and entering the Fold for the first time. Barely thirty minutes later, the volcra attack happens, and Alina's power is revealed. The skiff returns, and the survivors are taken to the Grisha tent. The bright autumn sun is clearly visible in the sky, and the flags above the tent are fluttering in the breeze.
Alina meets the Darkling, and her power is confirmed. She doesn't even get to speak to Mal before she departs for the Little Palace.
Establishing the date of the winter fete:
The first Malina reunion takes place in Chapter 14, on the night of the winter fete. In Chapter 13, it's stated that the King and the Queen are hosting the final winter fete at the end of the season. We're not given any specific date, but in Chapter 14, when she's arriving at the fete, Alina takes notice that the spring has barely begun to show itself. She runs away later that night, and in Chapter 16, when the second Malina reunion takes place outside of Ryevost, Alina explicitly states that she'd escaped from the palace well over a week ago. In Chapter 17, she wonders about Mal's life in the past five months.
Over the next few days, they keep a brutal pace, until they reach a village on the northwestern side of the Petrazoi. The festivities of the butter week are taking place. In Chapter 17, it's stated that the holiday takes place in the week before the spring fast. Alina's description of the customs, especially the mention of blini (a form of Eastern European pancake) corresponds with the Eastern Slavic holiday known as Maslenitsa. This suggests that we should probably stick to the Old (Julian) Calendar, rather than the New (Gregorian) Calendar.
Based on the information above, Alina's timeline at the Little Palace spans over five months and two seasons. And if we could calculate the possible date of the winter fete, we could also determine the approximate timeline of the whole story.
Establishing the date of the butter week:
Maslenitsa (also known as Butter Lady, Butter Week, Crepe Week or Cheesefare Week) is celebrated during the last week before the Great Fast. It's the eighth week before Eastern Orthodox Pascha [i.e. Easter].
Since Easter and its holidays are moveable feasts, the date of the celebration has to be computed to the first Sunday after the ecclesiastical full moon that occurs on or soonest after March 21.
In the Northern Hemisphere, the March equinox equals the spring equinox, and while some of the churches have adopted the revised New Calendar, the Russian Orthodox Church still uses the Old Calendar, which sets the date of Orthodox Easter anywhere between April 4 and May 8.
It's explicitly stated that Malina's second reunion takes place 'well over a week' after the winter fete, and the choice of words suggests that we should read 'well over' like 'less than a week, but still more than a half'. However, this is where our timeline starts to blur: all we know is that 'over the next few days' they are keeping a brutal pace, until they reach a village where the festivities of the butter week are taking place. Initially, Alina thinks it might be Sunday.
The approximate calculation says that at least 18 days have passed between the winter fete and the butter week festival. Fixing the date of the fete to the spring equinox sets the festival on the second week of April. This doesn't seem to fit with the Old Calendar, because our Butter Week is the eighth week before Easter, and in this case, Ravkan Easter falls outside the specified frame.
However, given that there is no mention of Easter in this world, we can only assume that the Ravkan butter week actually corresponds more with the pre-Christian celebrations of the upcoming spring, which were later adopted by the Orthodox church. It's worth mentioning that in pre-Christian times, blini were considered to be a symbol of the sun due to their round form. Traditionally, they were prepared at the end of winter to honor the rebirth of the new sun.
To confirm that the Ravkans are indeed using the Old Calendar, and that fixing the date of the winter fete on the spring equinox makes sense, we should take a closer look into the feast of Sankt Nikolai, the only other explicitly mentioned holiday in Ravka.
Establishing the date of the feast of Sankt Nikolai:
In Chapter 13, there's a mention of the feast of Sankt Nikolai, which takes place in winter. It seems to mirror the Christian celebration of the feast of Saint Nicholas, which falls on December 19, according to the Old Calendar.
According to The Lives of Saints, a table should be set for Sankt Nikolai on the darkest night of the year. In our world, this would mirror the December solstice, the day with the shortest period of daylight and longest night of the year. On the Old Calendar, the winter solstice occurs around December 25. It's also known as midwinter.
In Chapter 13 of Shadow and Bone, it's mentioned that the feast of Sankt Nikolai is celebrated with huge bowls of dumpling soup and kutya made with honey and poppy seeds. In Orthodox tradition, predominantly Eastern Slavic, kutya is a ceremonial grain dish served during the Christmas season or as part of a funeral feast.
On the Old Calendar, Christmas takes place on January 7, which could potentially explain why it is explicitly stated that the 'final' winter fete takes place at the end of the season. The festivities have probably started with midwinter.
Canonically fixing the date of the feast of Sankt Nikolai on the date of the winter solstice, we are creating a headcanon in which every change of season comes with a big holiday.
If the final winter fete happens five months after the events on the Fold, and the date is set to March 21, then Shadow and Bone starts somewhere between late October and early November.
