Refsdal and the Hubble Tension
In astronomy, a bit of luck can go a long way, and in 2014 Patrick Kelly still a graduate student was looking through Hubble images by eye, no different to many of you here looking through the images posted on this very blog, but Kelly spotted something interesting in the distant images of far flung galaxies taken by Hubble, a supernova gravitationally lensed.
The supernova was behind the galaxy, and lensed into 4 different locations, and yet, it appeared to be missing a 5th replicated image, which Kelly assumed had somehow been delayed in it's arrival.
Sure enough, many months after the supernova had vanished and almost a year later, the missing image of the supernova arrived.
It's hard to imaging how the same light, split across lensing can take an entire year's detour, but sure enough it did.
Kelly then joined forced with other astronomers to see if they could use the images to predict the Hubble constant, the rate of expansion of the universe.
The problem with the Hubble constant is, every time we measure it with a different method, we seem to get inconsistent responses, and this has led to the Hubble Tension.
Above are a list of different methodologies. The model used for the supernova isn't included in the above diagram, but it falls at 63.3 to 70.7 km/s/megaparsec, right alongside the Plank measurement as an early universe sample (Plank deriving it's measurement from the CMB from the big bang). While there is a huge amount of uncertainty in most of these models, it's difficult to be sure, but so far it does seem the earlier we look, the slower the Hubble constant is, making it not particularly constant at all.













