#ian boyd

[asg-stuff]

We've got to reduce demand to a much greater extent than we have in the past, and if we don't reduce demand we're not going to reduce emissions. (via Climate change: Big lifestyle changes 'needed to cut emissions' - BBC News)

[evanvincent]

Climate change: People 'must consume less'

Reaching Net Zero emissions will be a huge challenge, says UK's outgoing chief environment scientist.

Radical changes to the way people live are essential for the UK to meet its target to virtually halt greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.That’s the message from the government’s chief environment scientist, Prof Sir Ian Boyd.He said the public had little idea of the scale of the challenge from the so-called Net Zero emissions target. It will require using less transport, fashion, materials, and consuming fewer "luxury" foods like red meat.However, technology would help, he added.In an outspoken valedictory interview with BBC News, Sir Ian warned that persuasive political leadership was needed to carry the public through the challenge.

[drone-reference]

Location: Waddell Creek, CA Cameras + Edit by Ian Boyd CAMERA GEAR: Canon 1DXM2 + 100-400mm (land-based shots) Canon 5DM4 + 17-40mm (in water housing) GoPro HERO6 (POV mast mount) DJI Phantom 3 without ND filter (aerials)

[drone-reference]

Here's a quick edit from an hour with Peter Trow in Santa Barbara, California on March 7, 2017. Cameras: Canon EOS-1D X Mark II and DJI Phantom 4 Music License: GummyBeats.com

[dragoni]

tested some different algorithms, measuring speed and number of collisions.

I used three different key sets:

A list of 216,553 English words (in lowercase)

The numbers "1" to "216553" (think ZIP codes, and how a poor hash took down msn.com)

216,553 "random" (i.e. type 4 uuid) GUIDs

For each corpus, the number of collisions and the average time spent hashing was recorded.

I tested:

DJB2

DJB2a (variant using xor rather than +)

FNV-1 (32-bit)

FNV-1a (32-bit)

SDBM

CRC32

Murmur2 (32-bit)

SuperFastHash

GUIDs are designed to be unique, not random

A timely post by Raymond Chen reiterates the fact that "random" GUIDs are not meant to be used for their randomness. They, or a subset of them, are unsuitable as a hash key:

Even the Version 4 GUID algorithm is not guaranteed to be unpredictable, because the algorithm does not specify the quality of the random number generator. The Wikipedia article for GUID contains primary research which suggests that future and previous GUIDs can be predicted based on knowledge of the random number generator state, since the generator is not cryptographically strong.

Results

Hash           Lowercase      Random UUID  Numbers =============  =============  ===========  ============== Murmur            145 ns      259 ns          92 ns                    6 collis    5 collis       0 collis FNV-1a            152 ns      504 ns          86 ns                    4 collis    4 collis       0 collis FNV-1             184 ns      730 ns          92 ns                    1 collis    5 collis       0 collis▪ DBJ2a             158 ns      443 ns          91 ns                    5 collis    6 collis       0 collis▪▪▪ DJB2              156 ns      437 ns          93 ns                    7 collis    6 collis       0 collis▪▪▪ SDBM              148 ns      484 ns          90 ns                    4 collis    6 collis       0 collis** SuperFastHash     164 ns      344 ns         118 ns                   85 collis    4 collis   18742 collis CRC32             250 ns      946 ns         130 ns                    2 collis    0 collis       0 collis LoseLose          338 ns        -             -               215178 collis

[fyimusicnews]

5 QUESTIONS WITH... COMPACT MUSIC'S IAN BOYD

Ottawa has been called a sleepy town which stops at 6:30 in the evening. Is this true?

Yeah! Sleepy for sure, just the wrong time! You can pretty much count on two in the morning until 6:30 in the morning being the time that people sleep. The rest of the time, the city hums. The hipsters are being taken care of by Spectrosonic, our festival industry covers all genres, including Blues, Jazz, Chamber music, Folk, and Beer-drinking’ good times. The National Arts Centre steps it up a little for the political in town, so there’s ample action for all.

 After 36 years in this business, how do you see the future unfolding?

Your guess is probably better than mine! I’m just hoping I can get another great 24 years out of selling music, and I’ll have enjoyed going to work every day doing it.  As for artists, pretty tough, but Taylor Swift proved you can still sell CDs. And, God bless her, she’s off Spotify! Good for her. Record companies? I still think they’re important to what I do. We look forward to them continuing to bring us great music.

Describe the changes you have seen since starting out in 1978.

Well, when we first started, we had to make a decision on whether we were going to include 8-tracks in our inventory mix. Fortunately, we made the right decision. Since then, (brother) James and I have seen the demise of vinyl, the rise of cassettes, the demise of cassettes, the 32 year run of CDs, which continues to plod along, the advent of MP3s, the digital delivery of music, the streaming of music, and now the remarkable resurgence of the format we all know and love, vinyl. As for streaming, it’s a good sales tool, but as a retailer I can’t think of anything good about it!

What's your  take on the A&R process and the new acts coming through the door?

A&R is a tricky business. But the record companies seem to get it right, on an on-going basis. I like what every record company does. After  all, I’m a retailer. I’ve got no choice but to trust they get it right. Not only do I like their established acts, but I’m forever interested in breakout acts, and have been for the past 36 years! And probably for the first 20 years before that! I hope when I’m 80 years old, there’ll still be some 20-year-old whippersnapper that blows my musical mind.

Finally, do you think contest TV shows are a good way to find talent?

Hell no!  But then, I’ve never watched The Voice, American Idol, Canadian Idol, The X Factor, America's Got Talent… have I mentioned them all? If not, I haven’t watched those, either! Talent needs to be developed from a very early age, and then launched when the time is right. And then, it’s up to the record companies to decide what’s on the roster, and what’s not. And then, it’s up to me to sell it for them. Which I’ll be happy to do, day in, day out, as I’ve done for the past 36 years. Naturally, we wish everybody the best in this industry, and if you’re looking for help from Compact Music, don’t hesitate to call.

[tacklingbovinetb-blog]

Ian Boyd writes on the evidence base behind the badger cull pilots

In his latest blog, Professor Ian Boyd, Chief Scientist at Defra, addresses a common accusation about the evidence supporting the badger cull as a way of tackling bovine TB where the disease is widespread.

Critics of the government’s decision to pursue pilot badger culls as part of the strategy to eradicate bovine TB often highlight a comment from the original ISG report in 2007 that said, ‘culling can make no meaningful contribution to cattle TB control in Britain.’

A lot has changed since this statement was written and we now have more evidence for decision-making, especially based on new genetic-based analysis of TB strains. The process of reducing badger densities in some areas is just one component of an integrated approach to disease management that includes a wide range of methods all of which have an important part to play.

The ISG report was based on the initial analysis of the results of the Randomised Badger Culling Trials in the 1990s and 2000s. The authors were concerned about an apparent detrimental effect on cases of bovine TB in the area immediately surrounding the cull area. This is known as the ‘perturbation effect’ and is based on some evidence that by removing badgers from an area, other badgers in the surrounding area are encouraged to move more, including into vacated territory, and thus increase TB rates in this surrounding area. This, coupled with the high costs of cage trapping as a method of controlling badger densities (the method used in the RBCT), led the authors to their conclusion about the benefits of culling.

Since the ISG report, further analysis of the long-term impact on the cull on TB incidence rates have been carried out by Professor Christl Donnelly, a member of the ISG, which showed that the initial negative results around the cull area disappeared quickly (within 12-18months), while a positive reduction in TB cases within the cull area could still be seen years after.

My predecessor Professor Sir Bob Watson gathered leading experts on bovine TB for a meeting in April 2011 and this group used the improved scientific evidence since the ISG's report was written to assess the potential benefits of culling. The key conclusion of this group was that culling over a 150km2 area would see an estimated reduction in TB incidence of 16% in the cull and surrounding area over a 9 year period. The current debate is over whether this is "meaningful". However, the pilot culls are being carried out over areas roughly twice the size of the RBCT trials, so we can expect the benefits to be greater than predicted by this group because the bigger the area the smaller the perimeter and, therefore, the smaller the potential for perturbation.

Another large body of evidence comes from recent comparisons with other countries which has emerged since the ISG’s report was written. The Republic of Ireland, Australia and New Zealand actively use culling as a method to control bTB with successful results.  In Ireland, they have begun to significantly reduce the disease, Australia have achieved and New Zealand are well on their way to a TB-free status. This is further valuable evidence that the approach of removing infected wildlife does reduce TB levels.

Earlier this year I held a workshop for scientists from across the UK to discuss our approach to TB eradication and I think the majority of the scientific community understands the approach we are taking. James Wood and Mark Woolhouse, two leading experts in animal disease modelling and veterinary epidemiology, recently wrote to Nature to support the Government’s approach as ‘evidence-based policy.’

Professor Charles Godfray, from the University of Oxford, recently published a restatement of the natural science evidence base relevant to the control of bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain. It’s a very useful synopsis of what we know about bovine TB based on available evidence, and where there are still gaps in our understanding.

[tacklingbovinetb-blog]

Towards Eradication: Science to inform bovine TB policy

Professor Ian Boyd, Defra Chief Scientific Advisor, gives a lecture on moving towards the eradication of bovine TB and how science informs this policy.