#january effect

[jeffhirsch]

“Free Lunch” Time on Wall Street Tomorrow

Investors tend to get rid of their losers near year-end for tax purposes, often hammering these stocks down to bargain levels. Over the years the Stock Trader’s Almanac (2026 p. 116) has shown that NYSE stocks selling at their lows on or around December 15 will usually outperform the market by February 15 in the following year. When there are a huge number of new lows, stocks down the most are selected, even though there are usually good reasons why some stocks have been battered.

Our “Free Lunch” strategy is only a short-term strategy reserved for nimble traders. It has performed better after market corrections and this year’s recent pullback sets this trade up well. Free Lunch stocks are picked from stocks hitting new 52-week lows tomorrow on December Triple Witching Friday. We sell any quick, generous gains, as these issues can often be real dogs.

This strategy has been profitable in 19 of the last 26 years with an average basket gain of 8.2%. This year’s “Free Lunch” stock basket will be emailed to Almanac Investor subscribers before the market opens on Saturday, December 20. Subscribers will receive specific buy limits and stop losses for each stock included and the trades will be tracked in the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolios.

[jeffhirsch]

FREE WEBINAR: 2026 Forecast: 6th Year of Presidency & AI Super Boom Fuel the Bull

Please join Jeff Hirsch for a Free Webinar: 2026 Forecast: 6th Year of Presidency & AI Super Boom Fuel the Bull on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, at 4:00 PM EST by registering at:

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/2827769536367123542

Description

So many market pundits have been commenting on how difficult midterm election years have been for the markets that it is unlikely it will be anywhere near as bad as the doomsayers warn. And while it’s true that overall midterm years are the worst year of the 4-year cycle, it is not the case for the second midterm year, especially second term republicans. His base case scenario, which he gives a 70% probability calls for some volatility, most likely during the “Worst Months” of 2026. Then a late 2026 rally that ultimately pushes the market to historical sixth year of presidential administrations gains for the year.

Jeff will dive deep into his 2026 Annual Forecast and share his assessments of the economy, the Fed, inflation, geopolitical events as well as answering the age-old question: Will there be a Santa Claus Rally this year? His January Indicator Trifecta combines his Santa Claus Rally, First Five Days, and January Barometer into a single indicator that has produced compelling results. The most bullish outcome has historically been when all three were positive. When all three are up the S&P 500 has been up over 90% of the time with double-digit full-year gains.

As seasonality turns positive, a year-end rally is likely, potentially driving the S&P 500 to 7,100. Plus, the January “small cap” Effect, December Triple Witching and the Only Free Lunch on Wall Street are all cued up!

If you don’t understand this famous line from Yale Hirsch, creator of the Stock Trader’s Almanac— “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” —you’re probably thinking about the Santa Claus rally all wrong.

[jeffhirsch]

Third Times a Charm – Early “January Effect” Likely to Push Russell 2000 to New ATHs

It’s no secret that the Russell 2000 small cap index has not closed at a new all-time high (ATH) in over three years. Russell 2000’s first attempt was on November 11 when it traded up to 2441.72 intra-day. That attempt failed and Russell 2000 retreated. The second attempt started on November 25 and lasted until December 2 with multiple intra-day highs exceeding the old closing ATH of 2442.74 from November 8, 2021. Will a third attempt next week finally see Russell 2000 at a new ATH?

Looking at the seasonal pattern chart above, updated through the markets close on December 6, Russell 2000 does appear to be following its historical pattern and trend this year eerily closely. Since late October small-cap outperformance in November and December this year (orange line) closely following the pattern observed from July 1979 to June 2024. We suspect that once tax-loss selling pressure abates, likely sometime later next week, that Russell 2000 will finally break out and close at a new ATH. Should this occur, small-cap outperformance could persist into early March next year.

[jeffhirsch]

Russell 2000 on Verge of Breaking Out

It has been over three years since the Russell 2000 last closed at an all-time high. This sad streak could be coming to an end soon. Seasonally speaking, small caps are set up for their annual yearend rally into Q1, often referred to as the “January Effect,” where small caps outperform large caps in January. As we point out on pages 112 and 114 of the Almanac, most of the “January Effect’s” small cap outperformance takes place in the last half of December as tax-loss selling abates.

As you can see in the accompanying chart, the Russell 2000 has been tracking the pattern fairly well since August and it looks like the small fry may finally be on the verge of breaking out to new all-time highs. Small caps leapt higher in early November, then retreated a bit and are now surging higher now. This trend aligns well with the annual pattern above. But as illustrated in the chart, small caps can exhibit some choppy trading from late-October through mid-December and patience has generally been rewarded with opportunities presenting through mid-December.

[jeffhirsch]

Seasonal Patterns Suggest Choppy Upside After Mid-January Weakness

As of today’s close, Russell 2000 is still clearly leading this January, up an impressive 6.59% even after today’s decline and there are still eight trading days remaining. Due to the sizable Russell 2000 gains this month, January 2026 has been plotted on the right vertical axis in the accompanying chart. Compared to a Russell 1000 loss of 0.47%, small caps are outperforming by 7.06% for a solid “January Effect” (pages 112 & 144 of STA). 

It is encouraging to see this seasonal tendency holding up even as S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000 are now negative year-to-date as a result of today’s declines. Even today’s weakness is not uncommon for the Tuesday following Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday. However, over the last 21 years, January’s low has tended to arrive around the 12th trading day of the month. If that is the case this year, then the market could start climbing choppily higher soon.

[mindambrosia]

Entertaining Books with Depth: True Stories, Lasting Impacts

Stories that strike a balance between fun and wisdom are gaining traction for all the right reasons. These thoughtfully written narratives, tender with emotional depth, reflections about real life, humor but also moments of raw honesty, were inspired by engaging storytelling. They challenge traditional literature with a fresh voice and relatable insight, something they can truly lay claim to.

Current readers like entertaining books that charm yet can relate to personal experiences. Powerfully weaving the narrative with a real theme, these books create an impression that remains and lasts long past finishing, the final chapter.

The stories mirror actual feelings and experiences, an air of being authentic with a subtle charm, which keeps lingering in one’s thoughts long after the closing of the book.

Sweet Buttcoins: Chasing Risk, Facing Regret, Finding Yourself

At first glance, Sweet Buttcoins may appear to be a fairly humorous expedition into cryptocurrency escapades, but it soon becomes apparent that it is far more. It is a study in the unrestrained roller-coaster of seeking fast money, trusting the wrong people, acting impetuously in a digital world that where illusion is an inevitable risk.

The narrative voice is as raw as engaging, making it one of those entertaining books of its kind. There’s humour but no shallow or dismissive tones. The highs of instant profits are balanced out by the lows of betrayal and personal loss. The narrative reveals the hidden costs of greed, not just in monetary terms but in peace of mind and trust in others. You’ll laugh, you’ll wince, and by the end, you’ll likely reflect on your patterns of risk and reward.

The January 2023 Effect: When Belief Becomes a Burden

January 2023 Effect explores the author’s painful experience of emotional fraud, disguised as a long-distance relationship. But, in broad daylight, the book unfolds the darker side of loneliness, hope, and vulnerability that can trap even the sharpest minds in an emotional trap.

This is one of those entertaining books where stories complement insight. Every chapter seems like an adventurea: exciting, painful at times, but ever so revealing. In the meantime, as one witnesses the slow deterioration of a relationship built upon empty promises, one also views the quiet strength it takes to admit, heal, and grow from emotional manipulation.

Angels at the Gate – Speaking Truth in a Deceptive World

In Angels at the Gate, the narrative takes a turn toward moral conflict, exploring what happens when one must uphold integrity in the face of corruption in professional settings such as publishing and finance. This book does not shout for attention. Instead, it speaks softly, almost as if the pressure to remain silent is too great to withstand.

So, it keeps the reader riveted. Through measured storytelling, the author reveals that integrity is more often put to the test not by big scandals but by little compromises. It is one of those entertaining books that don’t need to race through the worthy actions of its characters nor rely on shocks and twists to carry it. While the emotion is genuine, it is the brave step of confronting some uncomfortable truths that makes the strongest impact.

Why These Books Are Truly Entertaining

Entertainment does not always come from drama and thrill. Sometimes, it comes from the agony of watching your own story being mirrored back to you, whether through mistakes you have made, feelings you have buried, or choices you are still trying to comprehend. These books cope with:

Giving depth to commonplace experiences

Addressing universal feelings: shame, guilt, and resilience

Coming together to heal through storytelling, not just to spectacle

Bringing readers into actual metamorphic experiences

These are not just stories. These are mirrors carefully crafted to help readers reflect, feel, and embrace change.

In Conclusion

In an era driven by fast content, some entertaining books rise above mere amusement. They don’t just pass time, but rather delve into deep truths. Each page carries views on the real world, conflicting struggles, emotional turning points, and realisations that resonate with countless readers. The authors elegantly weave their social experiences into a narrative that feels personal and universal simultaneously.

The whole story of these books revolves around the blending of narrative and emotional feeling they offer their readers enough room for healing, reflection, and introspection. Through careful writing and sincere insight, these stories stay with the readers long after the have rad the fnal page.

These books remind a reader that entertainment offers perspective, empathy, and depth. The books are for those who want to read stories that impart more than just entertainment, meaning that they stay with one. These are not just books; these are phenomenal expeditions full of truth, feeling, and self-realisation. Visit us today for more.

[mindambrosia]

January Effect

The January Effect refers to a seasonal phenomenon in the stock market where stock prices tend to rise in January, following declines in December. This trend is often attributed to investors buying back shares after tax-loss selling at the end of the previous year, resulting in increased demand and optimism. Many traders view this effect as an opportunity for gains, making January a pivotal month for market performance. At Mind Ambrosia, we explore the January Effect mainly as a metaphor for personal renewal and growth, inspiring individuals to set new goals for the year ahead. For more details visit our website today.

[earningselite]

The January Effect - Expanded (A Must Read)

There's more to "The January Effect" than you may realize. Read on to learn how to best leverage this phenomenon and profit in 2024... #januaryeffect #bulls #bears #sp500 #earnings #stockmarket #spy #trading #qqq #dia

THERE IS MORE TO THE WELL KNOWN “JANUARY EFFECT” THAN MANY UNDERSTAND. USE THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE TO MAXIMIZE THE JANUARY EFFECT CONCEPT. Happy New Year to all. As we head into 2024, an important concept will be talked about and written about ad nauseam: The January Effect. The idea (that actually holds some truth) is: “so goes January, so goes the year”. But there’s more. There is…

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