If Weiss went with Team JOYR, how do you think the confrontation between them and the Ace Ops in the tundra would have gone? It would've been the first time Weiss and Winter met after the V7 finale but before Winter's loyalty to Ironwood had fully broken.
I’ve been stuck thinking about this all day a few days a week, because there’s a lot to consider here...
The short answer would be that everything said will be charged in more meaning, but the end results of the meeting wouldn’t change. The ripple effect on Winter’s bombing mission would be drastic.
Pay in mind I’m not considering how Weiss’s presence would affect JYROW (pronounced gyro) before the meeting, and how RNBP (rainbop) would deal without her.
Edit: This turned out long.
Preliminary
In the V7 finale, a fracture is formed in both sisters. Weiss’s image of Winter cracked, and she sees for the first time how much Winter follows Ironwood before herself, and the lengths she would go for that cause. Weiss needs to break away from Winter to choose what she knows is right, but what keeps her going despite Winter’s betrayal, is that they’re still sisters no matter what. Winter made a mistake, but who knows better than Weiss that Winter has a good heart than her. In canon V8, it’s that belief that leads her to have faith and accept the call from Winter when the time comes.
Winter’s resolution in her actions, and her belief in Ironwood, was fractured when her sister(s) left her behind. The doubts festering in her mind during Volume 7 are given form in flesh and blood, in gears and circuitry. This is why “carving our own path” is such a meaningful line between Weiss and Winter, because Weiss upsets the balance where Winter carves the path for Weiss (by leaving Jacques). Canonically, this is why Winter starts to unravel and is on the path towards her first true defiance of Ironwood on the airship, and later a complete defection.
I think what’s interesting about this scenario is that the two sides are not exactly in direct opposition with each other. There were three sides in this war, but RWBY & co.’s side and Ironwood do share the common goal of defeating Salem. The tundra confrontation exemplifies this in the best way possible, because the Ace Ops’s arguments are not categorically wrong in claiming the risk is too large, although definitely callous, and neither are JRY wrong in wanting to save Oscar, even if idealist. When you insert Weiss into the equation, this balance doesn’t change.
I think the main change, for Winter, is how difficult it would be for her to save face throughout the meeting. Winter aims to be stone-faced, unless her family (blood or otherwise) is involved. With Weiss, Winter’s reaction is almost always the same - are you safe? Winter’s calm projection breaks, and keeping her facade intact wouldn’t be possible anymore.
This would complicate Winter’s arc, because most of it is based on how the calm and resolute front she projects constantly keeps her inner turmoil hidden from everyone but the audience, with few exceptions. Make her doubts open changes how the others characters would react and interact with her.
Weiss does change one thing very drastically here in her presence for Winter, because at this point no one has much implicit trust in Winter to follow their path. The Ace Ops accept Winter as a leader, JRY are suspicious of her intentions, but Weiss has an in no one else has. And the difference between Weiss and Winter is that Weiss wants to lead and draw people together, and Winter has always been a follower.
This actually matches Weiss’s canon V8 arc quite well, where her main objective was to bond the Schnee family together again, now as a family rather than a legacy. And like her first interaction with Whitley in the manor, Winter acting as an antagonist hinders her progress towards that goal. A difference, however, is that Weiss always idolized Winter, unlike Whitley and Willow whose her relationship with her is quite cold.
Back in the hypothetical tundra meeting, Weiss is uniquely suited to see beyond Winter’s mask and observe her inner turmoil, and has good reason to believe in Winter regardless, while Winter would be especially vulnerable in Weiss’s presence, caught between keeping her facade and wanting to protect Weiss at all costs. However, and I’d like to stress this again, the two sides of the argument are not totally wrong. The dilemma here isn’t Ironwood asking Winter to choose between himself and Weiss, because she’d always want to choose Weiss. The difficulty is if saving Oscar is worth the mortal risk to JRY, or is keeping JRY away from harm worth leaving Oscar to his fate. And Weiss’s presence would change Winter’s considerations here.
Tundra/Airship Meeting
Let’s start from the top; team TFW No GFs (Weiss is missing two in this scenario) discovered the Grimm river of Styx and heads back towards Mantle to warn them. Winter and the Ace Ops are in search of Penny, and pick up the radio transmission from the wrong team. Winter and Harriet touch down, and notice one (1) hoverbike packed with four (4) GF-less teenagers.
First deviation - Winter seeing Weiss would break her composure. In canon she gets cut off by Harriet before saying anything, but she is definitely reacting to Weiss first. “What are you doing here?”, no one else matters now, Winter will want to protect Weiss, even if that means chastising her for not following Ironwood’s orders. But Weiss is stubborn, she won’t cower just because Winter would yell at her. She’d argue the urgency of the Grimm River situation takes precedence over Ironwood, most likely mixed in with Yang and Jaune’s canon remarks.
In canon, Harriet cut her off because she already didn’t quite trust Winter, and Winter’s outburst/loss of composure would further confirm Winter’s untrustworthiness. The subtle conflict over command between the two would become more obvious, especially because in response to Harriet Winter would check herself in, trying to reign in her emotions again. This is something I imagine Weiss would notice.
The conversation is cut short when Grimm-river Styx launches off to attack Atlas as Salem finally begins her attack. In V8 we skip ahead to the point after JRY’s arrest, realistically because of production constraints but arguably because it’s not such an important scene. With Weiss in the mix, a small scene between her and Winter would probably occur: as they arrest the kids (per Harriet’s suggestion, most likely), Winter would visibly struggle putting the handcuffs on Weiss. Winter might wish to spare Weiss of this, but Weiss would probably agree disagree out of solidarity and to draw the lines between her and Winter more clearly - a golden cage is still a cage, sparing only Weiss from the arrest is only a half-measure on Winter’s part.
We move on to the major talking scene in the airship, where Team TFW no GF’s argues with Winter and the Ace Ops about the risk involved in saving Oscar and the bombing mission. On the one hand, I fully expect Winter to continue expressing open concern whenever Weiss suggest they go off their mission, attempting to reason the team’s safety is too compromised. This is unlike canon, where her concern is safely hidden behind her facade. On the other hand (and this is a new revelation to me), each individual member of JRY plays a different role in pushing Winter towards her first disobedience, and Weiss enhances that role with all three individually.
Let me explain; Yang “still following orders” Xiao Long is passion and anger, and acts as a mirror to Winter’s own suppressed rage. Yang is quite emotional, expressing the “naive” hope in friendship and the righteous belief in doing the right thing, and the anger at being subdued when wanting to fight for her friends. Though well hidden, Winter is affected by Yang’s anger specifically, implying Yang’s thoughts are a reflection of what Winter wishes to do herself, but hides and represses. We see this later on when she rages at Ironwood during the fight in the vault, her brief interaction with Jacques, and how she allows her annoyance with Marrow to be visible in the elevator.
Jaune is mind and reason, the logical part of Winter, weighing the risks and costs against each other. It befits him as a team leader whose specialty is tactics and strategy rather than force, and it speaks to Winter now especially as the Ace Ops’s temporary leader. In the moment, he offers Winter the perfect way to present JRY’s rescue mission as beneficial to the bombing mission’s success. It also allows her to defy Ironwood subtly enough without giving up too much of her position. In context this is important, because Winter cannot at this point ditch Ironwood - in doing so she would ditch the front lines, and she’d never allow herself not to fight for Atlas when it’s under attack. Looking forward, knowing Winter is likely to have some kind of leadership role in V9, this would be the first time Winter faces a difficult choice as a leader.
Ren is spirit and soul, he is fear and doubt. With his semblance, Ren has the most literal understanding of Winter’s inner turmoil, caught between choosing Oscar or the mission, caught between following Ironwood or trusting her heart. While Yang represents Winter’s broader emotional conflict with herself and Jaune her logical and analytical side, Ren has just gone through Winter will - a doubt with his own resolve, and a wish to leave his burdens at the hands of someone else, and finally choosing his own resolve again. Ren exposes all of the Ace Ops’s doubt plainly, and presents RWBY’s antithesis of the Ace Ops’s “coworkers aren’t friends” mentality that friends are the motivators, not a hindrance. Emotions are not just a validation, as Winter said to Penny before, emotions are our guide to be followed; not ignored.
Canonically, I think it’s the presence and perspective of all three JRY members that leads Winter to disobey Ironwood. Weiss though? Weiss can be all of them at the same time.
Weiss knows righteous anger herself, her life was quite like Winter’s after all. Though her anger is not as open as Yang’s, it has an edge of disappointment and superiority to it. Where Yang’s anger is effective in its contrast to Winter’s usual temperament, Weiss has the advantage of familiarity to Winter’s own behavior.
Weiss is studious and a stickler for rules, born and bred in the politics of Atlas elite. Though I don’t think she’d come up with Jaune’s plan, I think she’ll understand very well how the phrasing of the plan appeals to Winter. The knowledge of the necessity of keeping up appearances is shared by the sisters, so I think Weiss will help Jaune in selling the plan.
Her tie-in with Ren is different. Weiss doesn’t go through an ordeal resembling Winter like Ren does, but her understanding of Winter’s emotion and doubts is important here; if Ren’s realization of Winter’s feeling is in part literal thanks to his semblance, Weiss’s realization is because of intuition and her intimate knowledge of Winter. In particular, Weiss is one of the few who knows Winter without her mask on, and I believe more in tune with the doubts Winter tries to hide. After all, she understood that in the V7 finale already.
All of this of course stems from Weiss being Winter’s sister, and how Winter still believes attachments to others are an avoidable weakness.
With this in mind I come to the conclusion that regardless of the specifics of the meeting - what dialogue does Weiss change, who does she join, how Winter reacts - the end result of the meeting would still be that Winter would allow Team TFW No GF’s to go after Oscar. However, her doubts and indecision would be far more transparent compared to canon, where only the audience is aware of her tells. Now Winter is allowing Weiss to head into danger, and she’ll not order it calmly.
There will be no triumphant “I outrank you”, instead there’d be a moment of honest worry, a touch to Weiss’s shoulder, “I don’t want you anywhere dangerous. Are you absolutely certain-”
“I have to carve my own path, my own duty to uphold. Just like you have your duty.”
Winter would close her eyes, say: “Be safe. Make me proud.”
And for a moment there, Weiss would realize again how much her sister worries for her. She might revel in the momentary safety being in her presence provides, before she’ll look her in the eyes and say: “I will.”
Or something to that effect. You could make an entire fic about this hypothetical. I also imagine that Winter would request Weiss to contact her before sending her off, have a clearer contingency in plan.
I mostly painted Weiss as always having the upper hand over Winter here, always affecting Winter rather than the other way around. Truthfully, I also expect a back reaction, since Winter is still not on Weiss’s side here, and that would obviously hurt her. At times, maybe even she’ll doubt Winter’s resolve. Here I think JRY would back Weiss up, supporting here in a clearly difficult conversation to be had. I’m leaning towards Yang offering the most support, being a sister herself “feuding” with Ruby and having been in a similar situation with Raven in V5.
The reaction to Winter’s dilemma being made more public would differ between JRY and the Ace Ops. Thanks to their connection to Weiss and similar experiences of their own, JRY would realize more clearly Winter struggles with her loyalty and is worth believing in. It’d be a bit like their reaction to Emerald, except Winter’s transgressions are far easier to forgive. They’ll see her more as a potential ally that only needs a little push forwards to join their side, given the opportunity.
Whatever shred of belief the Ace Ops had had in Winter’s loyalty to Ironwood would greatly diminish, not when the doubts she kept privately are open for all of them to see and analyze. For Marrow, this would be positive reaffirmation he is not alone in his struggles (albeit him and Winter’s defections are different in nature). Harriet already saw Winter’s action in canon treasonous, it’s possible she’ll let her anger (how she expresses her own suppressed grief over Tortuga) on Winter as well. To Elm and Vine, Winter’s doubts might kickstart their inner conflict a little earlier than in canon, where it’s only obvious when Ironwood confirms he intends to go through with bombing Mantle.
So there we have it. In a sense, nothing changes: Team TFW No GF’s leave for the whale, Winter still hasn’t left Ironwood’s side but does disobey him, and the Ace Ops are mostly unchanged.
The Ripple Effect
Everything changed. Remember how I said I didn’t see the tundra/airship confrontation as Winter having to choose between Ironwood and her consciousness, but as a difficult choice a squad leader has to make in the field?
For Winter, what follows immediately after this meeting is the whale-bombing mission. This, unlike the first meeting, really puts Winter’s resolve to question a lot more. In canon her doubts and worry of JOYR’s fate are concealed, and she is willing to go through with the mission. She very well could’ve sacrificed their lives in order for the bombing mission to go off successfully. This is the continuation of the original conflict on the airship.
With team JYROW heading off to the whale? Now this is personal for Winter more than before. Yes, you could argue Winter says she’d choose the bomb over Weiss, but her actions show time and time again that Weiss’s safety is too paramount to her. And unlike canon, Marrow doesn’t even need to question her about her decision - he’d already have his answer from the airship meeting. Oh, Winter will definitely play it up as if she’s going through with the mission, but I can see her delaying it further and further as the deadline approaches. She’ll dress it up as “the situation’s not ideal”, she’ll find whatever excuse she needs, and I fully expect Marrow and Harriet to call her up on it.
The moment of truth never came to be in canon, but if it really came down to it and Winter had her finger on the trigger - I’m fairly confident that at the last possible second she wouldn’t be able to press it with Weiss on the whale.
Speaking of JYROW, or rather JEYROW, this is where my neglect of fully considering Weiss’s change to the story is really biting me in the ass. To have a better idea of how the team would evolve or interact on the whale I’d have to revisit all of V8 up to that point, which I had not done. To borrow from canon, JYR learnt to better trust their friends and sympathize with each other. Roughly, Weiss would probably go on a similar journey, and parallel Ren’s realization from the airship meeting: Ren made a leap forward realizing explicitly why relying on his friends is important, Weiss standing up to Winter and having her friends stand up with her would once again reaffirm Weiss’s theme of putting family first. This still needs work.
Now we’re getting to the part where the flapping of butterfly wings start a hurricane - the aftermath of the Ozcar kinetic bomb. Because Marrow mourning JOYR’s death? Imagine Winter realizing Weiss is gone. Yeah.
Even better, we don’t need to imagine how Winter will react thanks to the V8 finale. Whatever composure Winter still holds on to, it’ll be obliterated. I see two paths how Winter will continue on from here.
In the first path Winter doesn’t believe Weiss survived the explosion. I imagine Winter locks up her grief and returns to her duty, because she’s still a pragmatic person at heart. The new Winter maiden immediately set off on her duty, with tears streaming down her face. However, I don’t think this is applicable here, because immediately after the bomb sets off Winter has no active duty to follow through. The city is temporarily safe, so there’s no rush to head back to Ironwood. She will have to face her grief without obstruction.
In the second path Winter still holds on hope Weiss managed to survive the explosion, somehow. Then she’d order a search party for the survivors, frantically calling Weiss like Blake called Yang. It will in fact be completely selfish of her to do so, but sometimes selfishness is more human than selflessness. I certainly won’t begrudge her of doing so.
Which leads me to the next hypothetical scene, which assumes Winter and the Ace Ops find JEYROW in Monstra’s remnants. If Winter finds Weiss now, safe and unharmed, one of them - doesn’t matter who - is running to hug the other. Think Ruby hugging Yang in Schnee manor, with the Schneesters instead. Their relief will be overwhelming. I’d cry.
But this leads me to a serious issue with Winter’s split loyalties, because, well, now she does have to choose between Ironwood and Weiss. Technically they’re still fugitives, and I don’t think Winter will be able to excuse arresting Weiss after this close call with the whale. Nor, for that matter, would Marrow be okay with it after being reunited with Juane.
In this alternate universe, I think this is the moment of true defection for Winter. This is the equivalent of finding out Ironwood was willing to threaten Penny by bombing Mantle. Marrow would follow her, I’m unsure about the other Ace Ops. If the tear in the Ace Ops’s loyalties comes to pass, the ambush plan RWBY advised in canon obviously wouldn’t be possible. Maybe the other Ace Ops are convinced or subdued, maybe they run back to Ironwood.
I think this is where I’ll stop speculating. What a fun what-if to play around with! this could be a great fic material if anyone wants to write it.
