#jungle primary

[ascryaday]

🍒﹕day 140﹕XYZ

✩ — jungle﹕eldritch﹕strawberry ✩ — cinder﹕roan﹕skeletal ✩ — plague eyes﹕primal

[thedailyelm]

Butch Ware will not be California’s next governor.

I know I’m about to piss off a whole lot of people by saying this, but, he can’t be, and deep down you know that.

What he CAN do, and really any of the candidates polling lower than Katie Porter, is give us a Republican Governor.

There are 64 candidates on the ballot and Butch Ware isn’t even one of them, because he didn’t file his tax returns by the deadline. That is on him and him alone. But unfortunately, write-in IS allowed in the primary, just not the general. So, because he’s getting so much attention, people WILL write him in, and congratulations, you are adding at 65th candidate to the ballot.

As if 64 wasn’t enough.

Also, I can’t overstate this, California is not like other states. The top two candidates go to the general election. That’s it. You can try to convince yourself otherwise, but I am 100% sure that that will be some combination of Katie Porter, Tom Steyer, Xavier Becerra, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco.

Two of those candidates are going to the general election.

That’s it.

There’s no write in, there’s no third party, there are two candidates, full stop. Those are the five highest polling candidates and the next one down is Matt Maha, — who thinks he’s running for his current job, based on how much he talks about being San Jose Mayor. And he’s not close to the top five at all.

If you vote for anyone but those top 5, and you are not MAGA, you are going to be taking votes away from Porter, Steyer and Becerra, and that means Hilton and Bianco are more likely to go to the general election ALONE. Two Republicans vying to destroy California. And that’s not an exaggeration.

If you watched the first debate on Tuesday, you KNOW how much that isn’t an exaggeration.

I think one of the most revolting moments was about non English speakers.

The candidates were all asked if Trump’s plan to give English proficiency tests to truck drivers should come to California.

Bianco said non-English drivers are responsible for the most accidents, and Hilton took it a step further and said that if you can’t speak English you shouldn’t even be allowed to have a license.

If you even consider voting for anyone that isn’t one of those top 3 Democrats, you are helping ensure one of those Republicans is our next governor.

And it’s worse with Butch Ware, because on top of the fact that he’s never going to the general election, he’s not even capable enough for any job with a deadline, let along literal governor. 64 candidates turned in their tax returns correctly and on time and he couldn’t even do that.

Is that REALLY the guy you want in charge of the 4th largest GDP in the world?

Seriously???

This whole election is terrifying me. Eric Swalwell will still be on the ballot, so will Betty Yee and any other candidate that I hope to god drops out in the coming weeks.

Yes, with every poll, percentage of undecideds have been higher than that of any given candidate, but with how many candidates are on the ballot, its just not a given that those undecideds don’t end up splitting the vote between even more candidates, so several Dems finish around 10% with both Republicans sailing to the general election

And the more you lift up candidates like Butch Ware, the more likely that is.

I hope, if you support the values he says he has, you also want to do literally everything in your power to make sure neither of the two guys — who don’t think people who speak English should be allowed to drive — are in the governor’s mansion next year.

RIGHT???

Remember, your vote in your voice and that voice is your superpower, so, for the love of god, don’t make yourself partially responsible for giving California a MAGA governor.

[bonusdragons]

August 27, 2021:

Jungle Primary, Gaoler, Runes.

Kalfu of MDreams’ clan!

[deadpresidents]

What are your assessment of the current field of potential California Governors?

I think Californians -- and I’m one of them -- should feel good. There is a deep field of prospective candidates for Governor in 2018, and there is a solid selection of Democrats who might run for Governor or other offices throughout the state. California has some really, really good candidates ready to take the next step in 2018 and beyond. And that “beyond” part is important because several of the leading California Democrats have an opportunity to make a difference not just in next year’s statewide races, but nationally in 2020. Most of the top contenders in California are young and relatively fresh faces, much like Kamala Harris was last year during her Senate run. California Democrats (I’m one of those, too) should be appreciative for what Nancy Pelosi, Senator Feinstein, and, especially, Governor Brown have done for us, the CDP, and our state, but on Election Day in 2018 Pelosi will be 78 years old, Feinstein will be 85 years old, and Brown will be 80 years old, so it’s comforting to know that the younger generation of progressive California leaders are ready to take over.

Rght now, I’m still supporting Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom for Governor, but I’m also still open to other candidates. I’m definitely paying attention to Tom Steyer and keeping an eye on Eric Garcetti, but I think Garcetti is going to just wait and try to make the jump from Mayor of Los Angeles to President of the United States in 2020. And that’s the smart move for him. Garcetti has a chance of making a splash in 2020 if he runs for President, but he would cut himself off at the knees if he ran for Governor in 2018 and lost, and there’s no guarantee that he would win. If I was advising Garcetti, I’d keep him away from next year’s Gubernatorial race and just have him work at raising his profile and being the anti-Trump accomplishing tangible things in the community while building a network of grassroots supporters, loyal donors, and an innovative national campaign.

As I was saying in regards to the 2018 gubernatorial race, I’m currently leaning towards Newsom, but I’m intrigued by Steyer. I think John Chiang, the California State Treasurer, has been very good at the jobs that Californians have elected him to statewide (Controller and Treasurer), but he’s not a terribly exciting guy and he’s going to be facing several rivals for the Governorship who certainly aren’t lacking in the charisma department. I think Chiang would be better off running for Lieutenant Governor, and I think it would be a good fit for him.

I’m not a fan of Antonio Villaraigosa. I’ve never been a fan of Antonio Villaraigosa. I used to get a downright uneasy feeling about John Edwards -- even when Edwards was a favorite of many Democrats who wished that the Democratic ticket was reversed in 2004 because they thought Edwards was a better potential Presidential nominee than John Kerry. He wasn’t, and my instincts about him were proven correct when he did a one-and-done term in the Senate, ran for President again in 2008, cheated on his wife as she was dying from cancer, and then tried to get an aide to take responsibility for the baby that Edwards had fathered with his mistress (during the campaign where Edwards’s wife was dying from cancer). Anyway...I get the same feelings about Antonio Villaraigosa that I used to get about John Edwards so I definitely hope he doesn’t get anywhere near the Governor’s office.

I also don’t like Kevin de Léon, who is currently the leader in the California State Senate. He hasn’t announced that he’s running but he’s exploring the possibility. Fortunately, Gavin Newsom dislikes de Léon (and I mean that he genuinely does not like the guy) even more than I do, so if he does get in the race I’m pretty sure Newsom will actively work to take de Léon out.

It’s still somewhat early in the campaign cycle, so there’s a chance that some other candidates will jump in the race, and that’s why I’m keeping my options open. But, like I said, California is in good shape when it comes to the next few elections because there is truly a host of quality candidates ready to make the leap. Besides Garcetti, I’m really keeping an eye on Xavier Becerra, who isn’t running for Governor but is well-positioned to break through nationally. Becerra is a former member of the House of Representatives (in fact, he represented the district that I now live in after moving to Los Angeles), but he resigned from Congress to accept Governor Brown’s nomination to be Attorney General of California. Perhaps more than anybody in California, Becerra has the ability to be President Trump’s biggest headache, and he has an opportunity to raise his profile significantly by leading the fight against Trump’s policies when they adversely affect Californians. Like Garcetti, Becerra has the rare chance to make a huge jump from local or statewide office into something on the national level -- possibly the Vice Presidency on the Democratic ticket in 2020. Becerra was strongly rumored to have been one of candidates vetted for the Vice Presidency by Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2016. He’s made it clear that he’s seeking an elected term as Attorney General in 2018, but the best-case scenario for him -- and for California -- would be if Dianne Feinstein decided not to run for a sixth term in U.S. Senate. Feinstein will be 85 years old when she runs for re-election next year, and I feel like Becerra would be perfect if made the jump from Attorney General of California to the U.S. Senate exactly like Kamala Harris did in 2016. It’s time for energetic leadership everywhere, and Becerra could provide that much better than an 85-year-old who has barely been challenged for her seat in a quarter century.

I went a little further than just the 2018 race for Governor of California, but it’s an interesting time in California politics. And for those who might be wondering why I didn’t mention any Republican candidates, it is because California has a jungle primary system (which I’m a big fan of and is one of the reasons why California has developed such strong and fresh Democratic candidates over the past decade). Instead of the leading Democrat facing the leading Republican in the general election, the top two vote-getters face off in the general election regardless of their party affiliation. That’s why two Democrats -- Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez -- ended up running against each other in the general election for the U.S. Senate in 2016. The jungle primary and the state’s diverse population has resulted in what is very nearly a super majority for the Democrats in California, so the system works really well in the the state since it ensures that the two candidates who truly had the most support in the primaries advance to a much more competitive general election as opposed to a lopsided matchup between a Democratic nominee who would likely crush a Republican nominee for 20% of the vote. There are Republicans running for Governor in 2018, but it’s unlikely that any of them will come close to finishing in the top two of the jungle primary and advancing to the general election. A Republican hasn’t won a statewide election in California since Governor Schwarzenegger was re-elected in 2006. 

[thedailyelm]

Last night was the third California Gubernatorial debate and honestly, I just want to put my head in the sand and pretend the election doesn’t exist.

If you didn’t have the pleasure, the debate was split up into three parts with anchors from three different CA CBS affiliates.

I do wanna note affiliate stations are separate from the main station. For instance, FOX affiliates are, almost across the board, have some of the most fact based and honest reporting in every local market. It’s not always the case, but I see it enough of the time that if I see a FOX affiliate station I’m gonna go into it with high expectations.

So this has nothing to do with these being CBS stations. These specific reporters are just….bad. At least, they were last night.

It started with LA Anchor Pat Harvey and Sacramento Anchor Tony Lopez and they treated it like a game show.

They joked about there being eight candidates on the stage and patted themselves on the back for having the most candidates of any debate so far, as if, with the jungle primary system that could possibly be a good thing.

And they egged candidates on when they started getting childish, which is really the only word I have for it.

Mics weren’t cut, they just talked over each other and it was mostly insults.

And on top of that, it wasn’t even useful. Every candidate got a different question so we couldn’t compare them one for one, which is literally the whole point.

And they did these lighting round questions that were just a yes or no answer with no clarification at any point. So that was the extent of the conversation about the gas tax and about ICE.

And it didn’t get better in the second third.

That was moderated by Julie Watts, the investigative reporter who Katie Porter yelled at.

Well, I apologize to Katie Porter for ever having an issue with how she talked to Julie Watts.

Watts spoke more than any of the candidates, and maybe any of the candidates combined. She interrupted to fact check, but it wasn’t really fact checking, and half the time she was just arguing with the candidates opinion.

She kept pushing her interviews with them from months ago and, at one point, even said she would ban the candidates from saying “Donald Trump” because they’d used his name over 1k times in their interviews with her.

She also congratulated a candidate on his new ad. Which just feels unprofessional.

I learned nothing about the candidates cause she was talking over them the entire time.

The final half hour was Bay Area Anchor, Ryan Yamamoto, and Pomona College politics assistant profession, Sara Sadhwani, and it was the first time it felt like there were any adults in the room.

They were measured and respectful, and because they were respectful, the candidates were too.

I left the debate with my head swimming and unable to function the rest of the night. It shouldn’t be like that.

That said, here’s my take aways:

Katie Porter showed how she would handle Trump and I was, frankly, impressed. She did not let the Republicans talk over her or accuse her of anything, she treated them like her teenagers when they’re acting out, and frankly, it was warranted.

Xavier Becerra has a really strong performance. He had a lot of one liners and hit back at every accusation against him. One of his best moments was with the aforementioned Julie Watts, when she tried to anchorsplain his ideas and he shut her down using his experience as CA AG.

Tony Thurmond is always great. He’s measured, he has good ideas and he’s a good debaters in every situation. But he has less than 1% of the vote in every single poll and as much as I would LOVE him to be our next governor, it’s not gonna happen. So I really implore him to drop out.

The rest of the Dems: Tom Steyer, Antonio Villaraigosa and Matt Mahan just weren’t impressive and really fell for the catty energy of the night.

And the Republicans, well, they’re awful. They’re so awful. They need to be as far away from California state politics as humanly possible. If you are at all considering voting for anyone other than the top 3 (Becerra, Porter and Steyer), please please considering changing your mind.

I’m just…frustrated. This isn’t a game show. We needed something real and serious and helpful, and instead people watched for the same reason they watch the Housewives franchise.

This cannot continue be how we conduct Democracy. It just can’t.

[thedailyelm]

If California had a regular schmegular primary, I would publicly endorse Tony Thurmond. I’m not gonna tell you why, because, we don’t. We have a jungle primary system and too many Democrats running that we run an actual risk of two Republicans going to the general election.

That’s because of our stupid dangerous Jungle Primary system.

It is not called that as a compliment. A Jungle Primary is a non partisan race, where every candidate runs together: Democrats, Republicans, Green Party, EVERYONE. And it’s chaotic, like a jungle (not that jungles are actually chaotic but, you know what I mean)

There are eight Democrats and two Republicans, and yes Swalwell is still going to be one of those 8, because the candidate filing period ended last month.

Tony Thurmond is nowhere near the top 3, so for the sake of California not having a MAGA governor, I’m not voting for him.

In fact, I don’t know who I’m voting for. That doesn’t mean I’m waiting to endorse. I’m quite literally voting 9 days before Election Day (something I NEVER do) for whichever Democrat has the highest polling numbers.

And I hope you will do the same.

That means you can’t care about how much of a billionaire or how little experience Tom Steyer has, or how hard Katie Porter is to work with or that she actually accused a fellow Dem of rigging an election against her, or that Becerra doesn’t have a history of being super great on criminal justice.

If we don’t like the highest polling candidate, we will hold our noses and vote for them anyway because, Steyer, Porter and Becerra are all lightyears better than Hilton or Bianco.

California does not have write-in candidates in the gubernatorial general election. If Hilton and Bianco go to the general, that’s it.

We can likely easily recall them, but how much damage will they be able to do in the meantime? You have to have a reason to recall from their time in office and then get the necessary signatures and then set an election date and vote. That’s a few months, at least. That’s not a plan.

We have one shot at this and that starts when we receive our primary ballots at the beginning of May.

So, I implore you, consider waiting to vote. Not till Election Day, if there are gonna be shenanigans those will be on Election Day, but maybe a 1-2 weeks before?

Even though Swalwell has dropped out, remember, he is on the ballot, so, he IS going to take votes from a more deserving candidate. And while Yee, Thurmond Mahan, and Villaraigosa are polling super low, they will siphon some votes as well.

Enough to keep a Dem off the general election ballot? I don’t know, but I do know we REALLY can’t risk it. The Republicans are both BAD news.

Chad Bianco is the current Riverside Sheriff and he’s trying to do an election probe into the ballots he gathered in 2025, because of imaginary fraud that doesn’t exist.

Steve Hilton has “protect parental rights” on his website, and we’re all smart enough to know what that means without him including the words “trans,” and “gay,” right? We’ve seen the school board votes? Not to mention, he literally has Trump’s endorsement.

So let’s not even risk it. You can have your favorite Dem, that’s fine, but I’m endorsing “wait to vote and then vote for the highest polling Dem candidate.”

We can’t mess around. We have to do everything in our power to keep the general election from being two Republicans against each other.

Who’s with me?

[thedailyelm]

Every single election in California is done through the jungle primary system.

It’s not just governor. I’m afraid that might be news to some people.

And I’m pretty worried I’m too late with making this post. The election ends a week from tomorrow.

When California redistricted with Prop 50, that meant the districts changed. That did not mean the system changed.

It is still completely possible that Republicans get elected in those districts because the top two of either party go to the general election.

And if Republicans have two viable candidates and we have 3? In these districts that are now light blue? Chances are, two Republicans are going to the general election.

One example of that is Darrell Issa’s current district, CA-48. But keep in mind, this is only ONE example.

Republican Jim Desmond is currently a member of the San Diego Board of Supervisors and he has 29% in the latest poll, with 39% who have already voted for him.

He will definitely be in the general election. Why? Republicans consolidated their support. They know how the jungle primary system works, and they want to be in the conversation.

And that should be enough, but where Republicans get it, Democrats REALLY don’t.

Because the Democrat vote seems to be split: Marni Von Wilpert, who is on the San Diego city council, at 9% in both polling and those who already voted, and Ammar Campa-Najjar at 9% in polling and 11% in those who have already voted.

Kevin O’Neil, a Republican businessman, at 10% in polling and 9% in already voted, could join Desmond in the general election, locking Democrats out.

Now yes, this is just one poll, from KGTV 10 and San Diego Union Tribune, but their already voted numbers match up.

In this poll, 25% of people are still undecided. The thing is, we don’t know what they’re undecided from. Are these people who are just figuring out which Dem to vote for or are they deciding between the two Republicans or maybe one of the Dems and one of the Republicans?

It is still fully possible that Kevin O’Neil takes second place if those undecideds were split too.

And I know what you’re gonna say, “but that’s not happening in this climate, it was unfounded with governor and it will be unfounded here.”

It wasn’t unfounded with governor, we worked our ASSES off to make sure one of the Dems was in the general, and we did it SO well, we might even lock Republicans out of the general instead.

And that’s my hope, at this point. Not because I think two Dems should ever go to the general election, I don’t. But because if Democrats hate the jungle primary system and Republicans hate the jungle primary system, maybe we can fast track getting rid of it before 2028 and get a ballot measure for next year — like what happened with Prop 50.

Because it’s scary every single time. And there were several times in 2025 that we could have easily flipped Republican seats in the State Legislature that we lost out on because we had too many Dems running.

It sucks. The primary SHOULD be about voting for your favorite candidate. We shouldn’t be having to consolidate support behind one candidate before voting for the primary even begins.

But in California and Washington (and Louisiana…kinda), that’s the current reality.

So please, if you haven’t voted yet find out if there is a risk of Dems, at any level, being locked out of your general election. Check the polls, check what local organizations are saying, even ask on social media.

If Darrell Issa is replaced by Jim Desmond or Kevin O’Neil, what was the point of Prop 50 in the first place?

In CA, primaries aren’t about your heart, they’re about strategy. Accept it now so we can start mobilizing to change it before 2028 and never have to go through this bullshit again.

[thedailyelm]

Betty Yee is now my favorite politician in California

I wish she had dropped out sooner, and I wish she’d endorsed, but I’m so glad she dropped out now.

To be able to put aside your own ego for the good of the state is not something anyone else has done this time around, so I have huge respect for her right now

Democrat Betty Yee drops out of race for California governor

San Francisco native and former California state controller Betty Yee has announced she's leaving the race for governor after low polling, g