Heavy Rain Alert India 2026: Flood Risk, Weather Forecast and State-Wise Updates
The most recent IMD bulletin, dated August 10, points to a fresh weather system driving the latest spell of intense rain. Under the influence of a low-pressure area over north Madhya Pradesh and neighbouring regions, isolated extremely heavy rainfall is likely over East Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh, with the department also flagging heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over the Gujarat region and Himachal Pradesh. IMD's red-colour warnings, which signal "take action" rather than a blanket alert, have been issued for these zones, urging local authorities and residents to remain prepared.
The southern peninsula has also seen a sustained wet spell through the first half of the month. An earlier bulletin noted that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall was very likely over Kerala, and coastal and south interior Karnataka over a two-to-three day window, with isolated extremely heavy rainfall also expected over Kerala. Bengaluru and its surrounding districts were placed under a high-risk watch, with meteorologists warning of intense evening showers, waterlogging in low-lying areas, and slowed traffic during the commute. Districts including Mysuru, Kodagu, Hassan, and Shivamogga were specifically flagged for persistent rain, with coastal areas near ghat regions facing elevated flood risk through the night. State Disaster Management Authorities have advised caution near swollen rivers and water bodies in the affected districts.
Zooming out, IMD's extended forecast shows that heavy rainfall activity has continued across a wide geographic spread through early August with extremely heavy rainfall also recorded at isolated places over Kerala, Mahe, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, and south interior Karnataka in the first days of the month, alongside east Uttar Pradesh, coastal Karnataka, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Konkan, Goa, and Madhya Maharashtra.
On the seasonal picture, the monsoon has broadly tracked close to normal nationally. Data for the week of July 30 to August 5 showed that rainfall was normal over the country as a whole, running about 7% above the Long Period Average. However, the distribution has been uneven weekly rainfall was in the excess category over the South Peninsula and normal over Central India and East & Northeast India, while the Northwest India region, including parts of Rajasthan, fell into the deficient category, a gap the current low-pressure system appears to be helping close.
With the monsoon trough expected to remain near or north of its normal position in the coming week, meteorologists expect the wet spell to persist across northwest and adjoining central India, as well as the east and northeast, through much of the week. Residents in flood-prone and hilly districts particularly in Kerala, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and Himachal Pradesh are advised to stay updated through official IMD bulletins and state disaster management alerts as the situation evolves.
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