in one of your previous replies, you mentioned cardinals whom the media overlooks that will likely play a pivotal role in choosing the next pope. could you talk a bit more about some of those particular people?
Hi!
Yes, so a lot of these guys are less "overlooked" and more "misrepresented." As you might be aware, Anglophone Catholic media is a very right-wing space, and this extends to wishcasting about this conclave and the cardinals participating in it; even if a relatively conservative Pope does emerge from it, they are going to exaggerate how conservative, possibly in the sort of tones one associates with an old-school phone sex line. It's just how these people are. Think outlets like CNA, The Pillar, even some journalists who cover the Catholic Church for the secular press. So the issue with the cardinals I'm about to profile is that most reporting in the developed-world Anglosphere thinks, or hopes, that they'll be based trads who retvrn to the days of Benedict XVI (himself an absurd caricature in these idiots' minds) and fully repudiate that meanie Francis and his persecution of Latin Mass people, affluent donors, and career Curia ghouls. Well, in the real world, they won't.
Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, Archbishop of Kinshasa and current President of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar. Age 65. Papabile. Probably the currently most powerful African cardinal. Was a senior advisor of Pope Francis and generally closely aligned with him, but is best-known in the West for the one issue area where that wasn't true: homosexuality. Cardinal Ambongo has the extreme aversion to gay people that is widespread in Africa, and he was the force behind getting the whole continent a(n ostensibly temporary) carveout from Fiducia supplicans, the document that kinda-sorta-if-you-squint allowed blessings of same-sex couples. He also had a "hot mic" moment in connection with this where he accused Westerners of having "decadent morals" and "not liking children" (true to an extent tbh but bringing it up in this context is a red flag).
However, this is not one of Ambongo's main issues if one looks at his overall career and theological work. His actual priorities are climate action and opposition to the Congolese government. Moreover, one of his big projects within Africa is a pastoral rapprochement with polygamists (a serious issue there), and while "I can excuse polygamy but I draw the line at homosexuality" is a viable position as President of SECAM, it's possible that as Pope he'll be more self-aware of how that looks in other parts of the world and leave the current state of play with Fiducia alone.
Charles Maung Bo, Archbishop of Yangon. Age 76. Second-string papabile. First Burmese cardinal and former President of the Federation of Asian Bishops' Conferences, which is to Asia what SECAM is to Africa. His most Francis-y position is, like with Ambongo, environmental theology; he has compared climate change to the atomic bomb and said it has already "devastated communities and the lives of millions" (which is, of course, true). His least Francis-y position is his anti-Chinese stance and discomfort with the Vatican-China accords that Pope Francis and Cardinal Parolin negotiated. He's spoken very highly of Francis in the days since his death. He's a cipher on LGBT issues and women in the Church, but Asian bishops do tend to have a more open position on the former than do African ones.
Virgílio do Carmo da Silva, Archbishop of Dili. Age 57. The only archbishop in Timor-Leste, the most heavily Catholic country in the world. Not papabile but has been unusually forthright in the ideological positioning he thinks the next Pope should have--neither left nor right of Pope Francis but "neutral" to "keep the Church going in that direction".
There are, however, disquieting indications that Cardinal do Carmo da Silva might be creepily reactionary specifically on "gender theory"; he's said to have gone to a conference on the subject in Prague hosted by right-wing American dark money and featuring a presentation by a hyperconservative Dutch cardinal, Wim Eijk. But it's noteworthy that do Carmo da Silva expressly endorses a continued glide path in a "bergoglian" direction despite that.
Robert Sarah, former Prefect of the Congregation (now Dicastery) for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments. Age 79. Was less than two months shy of aging out of the conclave at the time of Pope Francis's death. Probably the African cardinal most familiar to Catholics in the West, because he is a "based trad" or whatever who moved away from the typical Third Worldist "conservative on the Western culture wars, more 'open' on everything else" stance towards boilerplate reactionary positions over the course of his 70s. Committed elder abuse against then-Pope Emeritus Benedict in order to derail the Amazon synod in 2019. Is a "mass migration" fearmonger despite being a Guinean living and working in Western Europe himself. I do not like him and he has almost certainly burned too many bridges to emerge from this conclave as Pope, although if Francis had died in 2018 or so he would have been much more viable. Currently overinflated in conclave betting markets in countries where that's legal due to the generally rightoid tendencies of the online gambling community. Nevertheless, he still commands a lot of respect among other African bishops and cardinals and might be problematical as a power broker even though I don't think he's a serious papabile. If he does emerge from this conclave as Pope, it's probably best interpreted as a divine scourging for, you know, something or other. Lord knows the Church has done enough to be divinely scourged for.
Mykola Bychok, Eparch of Saints Peter and Paul of Melbourne of the Ukrainians. Age 45 (yes, really). Youngest cardinal in many decades, a "Uniate" Ukrainian Catholic who's spent most of his ministry in the Ukrainian diaspora in the United States and Australia, probably appointed because Francis wanted a Ukrainian and wanted an Australian and didn't like the other church leaders from those places. Bychok himself reportedly hated Francis's guts, but for personal reasons, not ideological ones; he may have also thought Francis was too soft on Russia (not totally unreasonable tbh). He supports synodality and decentralization, like most Eastern Catholics, but is a cypher on culture war issues. He is almost certainly not papabile but because of his unique and interesting situation he might end up with some sway among other "peripheries" cardinals, especially other young (for cardinals) ones.
Jean-Pierre Kutwa, Vice President of the Regional Episcopal Conference of Francophone West Africa and former Archbishop of Abidjan. Age 79. A prototypical "very hostile to 'Western ideological colonization' on homosexuality, gender roles, and family structures, otherwise sympathetic to Pope Francis's social teachings" African prelate. Probably not papabile but seems to command a lot of respect among other Global South cardinals.
Antoine Kambanda, Archbishop of Kigali. Age 66. A Rwandan genocide survivor who has expressly endorsed a continuation of Francis's overall direction for the Church despite sharing the culturally-engrained homophobia of Ambongo, Sarah, and Kutwa.
Stephen Brislin, Archbishop of Johannesburg. Age 68. A second-string papabile according to some sources. A white South African of the Alan Paton/Breyten Breytenbach "one of the good ones" variety (as far as I can tell) who fully supported Pope Francis's direction, even on homosexuality. One of the few African prelates to expressly say that SECAM's position on Fiducia did not reflect his own.
Chibly Langlois, Bishop of Les Cayes and President of the Episcopal Conference of Haiti. Age 66. Has survived two earthquakes and a car crash. Francis loyalist, cypher on Western culture war issues.
Ignace Bessi Dogbo, Archbishop of Abidjan. Age 63. I think he might be a dark horse papabile and so do some news organs within Africa. Ideologically similar to his predecessor in the see of Abidjan, Kutwa, but temperamentally more of a "Francis bishop". One African news organ, Felastory Media out of Nigeria, expressly describes Dogbo as "aligned with Francis's pastoral, synodal vision".
Abidjan, which is the cultural and commercial capital of Ivory Coast, is one of only a few metropolitan areas in the world outside Rome to currently have more than one voting cardinal, along with New York, Toronto, Madrid, Washington, and Lisbon. It has over six million people and one of the largest and fastest-growing Catholic populations in the world. I think Dogbo would be a good option for a more Francis-aligned African Pope; he seems to share other African prelates' homophobia, but without emphasizing it.
William Goh, Archbishop of Singapore. Age 67. A Francis cardinal and seems broadly positive about the late Pope's legacy, but on the conservative side. Might be able to scout out a candidate acceptable to conservatives but less extreme than Sarah. Was at the same creepy "gender ideology" conference as do Carmo da Silva, but, like do Carmo da Silva, does not seem to be primarily interested in the subject.
Soane Patita Paini Mafi, Bishop of Tonga and former President of the Episcopal Conference of the Pacific. Age 63. Hates him some climate change, hates him some Western influence on Polynesian culture. Relatively pro-LGBT for that kind of cardinal, largely because of differences on this point between attitudes widespread in Polynesia and attitudes widespread in Africa. Probably not papabile but an interesting figure.
Lazarus You Heung-sik, Prefect of the Dicastery for the Clergy. Age 73. First Curial cardinal from Korea. Is emerging in reportage on the pre-conclave events as a moderate, consensus-oriented power broker who would like to shield some of these other Global South cardinals from the more extreme and divisive aspects of Sarah's influence.
Dieudonné Nzapalainga, Archbishop of Bangui and President of the Central African Episcopal Conference. Age 58. Discussed as papabile by some sources within Africa. Very young for this process; is the same age as John Paul II was when he became Pope. Could rival or beat Pius IX's record for longest-reigning Pope since St. Peter. Avowedly and explicitly believes that Africa in general and his country (the Central African Republic) in particular have bigger problems than being muh ideologically colonized by the gayz or whatever. Is all but explicitly santo subito-ing Pope Francis.
Nzapalainga has a similar formation and spirituality to Sarah; they were both educated by the Spiritan religious order, which had a "traddy" vibe and was very present in Francophone Africa at mid-century. (Marcel Lefebvre was the superior general of the order for much of the 1960s, if that rings a bell.) But he is much, much, much more moderate than Sarah; he has, again, showered the late Pope Francis with praise, and was one of the few senior figures in the Church with this kind of trad-adjacent formation to continue to work productively with him throughout his pontificate.
Louis Raphaël I Sako, Patriarch of Baghdad of the Chaldeans and head of the Chaldean Catholic Church. Age 76. Like Bychok, is from an Eastern Catholic church, i.e. an organized body of Christians with its own liturgy and spirituality but in full communion with Rome. Is in the extremely unusual and arguably illegal position of having his home government's explicit endorsement for the papacy; the (Shia Muslim) Prime Minister of Iraq thinks very highly of him and openly supports him as Francis's successor. Not considered papabile by seemingly anyone outside the Iraqi government, but who knows? Has effusively praised Francis since his death, especially for his efforts at interfaith solidarity and rapprochement with the Islamic world.
Baselios Cleemis, Major Archbishop of Trivandrum and head of the Syro-Malankara Catholic Church. Age 65. "Il cardinale glocal" (as in global+local) according to Italian news. Like many Indian prelates, has been strongly supportive of Pope Francis. Seems to command esteem among both other South and Southeast Asian cardinals and other cardinals from the Eastern Churches, such as Bychok and Sako.
There are many, many more of these people, but I hope this gives some idea of the dynamics at play with this conclave specifically in Catholicism outside the traditional heartlands of Western/Central Europe and the Americas. These people are "gettable," many of them are neither conservatives nor progressives/bergogliani the way we normally think about those concepts, and they do have an immediate sense of the suffering of the world that the more genteel rich-country cardinals broadly lack.
