the lithium series, part three: the market
the price. lithium carbonate prices in china rose to CNY 177,000 per tonne on 30 april 2026 — up 163 percent compared to the same time last year. battery-grade lithium carbonate nearly doubled to USD 26,278 per tonne in Q1 2026, with supply delays and speculative buying fuelling the rally.
this price recovery follows a severe and prolonged downturn. lithium prices peaked in late 2022 at approximately USD 80,000 per tonne. they then collapsed through 2023 and into 2024 as new supply came online faster than EV demand could absorb it. by october 2024, prices had fallen to multi-year lows. fastmarkets projects a swing to a 1,500-tonne deficit in 2026. the price recovery reflects that tightening.
the demand story is structural and undeniable. 17.1 million EVs sold in 2024, on track for 40 million by 2030 — a 233 percent increase. lithium-ion battery demand forecast to rise at a 14 percent compound annual growth rate over the next decade. lithium demand increasing by roughly 12 percent a year.
the global supply chain has two dominant production systems. the lithium triangle of south america — argentina, chile, bolivia — recovering lithium from brines in the world's great salt lakes. approximately 55 percent of global lithium market share. the hard-rock spodumene pegmatite system of western australia — pilgangoora, greenbushes — producing concentrate shipped to china for processing. 42 percent of market share.
the processing chokepoint: approximately 70 percent of lithium refining sits in china. australian spodumene concentrate, south american lithium carbonate, and african lithium production all flow primarily to chinese processors. identical to the concentration that has characterised cobalt processing for decades.
zambia's position. not in the lithium triangle. not australia. a hard-rock pegmatite jurisdiction — like australia, like zimbabwe, like canada — with confirmed high-grade LCT pegmatite occurrences and a geological setting characterised as prospective across multiple provinces.
zimbabwe — zambia's southern neighbour — is already one of the major players in low-cost african lithium production. zimbabwe has already taken the policy step zambia has not yet taken: suspending exports of lithium concentrates to stimulate in-country refining.
zambia has declared lithium a strategic mineral. it has the geological survey work underway. it has the misika high-grade LCT pegmatite in southern province demonstrating what the ground holds.
what it needs is the same urgency identified across every series — translating geological endowment into active exploration, development, and policy that captures value rather than exporting raw material.
the window to position as an early african lithium supplier — with governance credentials and a documented supply chain that the market increasingly requires — is open now.
the lithium series continues. ⚡
