Main Game 3: Role Speculation - Gin Sacrifice
As per my last analysis, getting the sacrifice card guarantees a win.
However, in the “Shin lives” route, I see one instance of this not being the case.
In order for the sacrifice to win, they must vote for themself in the first round. The sacrifice gets two votes, so this would guarantee them a spot in the second round, and guarantee them the win (so long as the other person doesn’t vote to kill themself, but why would they in this scenario).
If Gin is chosen as the sacrifice, he may not vote for himself in the first round. He may either be too selfless and withhold information as the noble thing to do, or have not thought the rules through far enough. In fact, he may even go as far as to vote someone off like Shin, who he doesn’t like. I can’t quite see Gin voting for himself. This means if Gin gets the sacrifice card, his chances of living are likely 0%.
If the keymaster ends up in the final vote, the other person is 100% dead because if the keymaster dies, they die, and if the keymaster doesn’t die, well, that means they were taken. This situation is incredibly dangerous for someone who isn’t the keymaster, so being keymaster in this scenario with no sacrifice is oppourtune.
If the two people chosen are the commoner and sage, well, it’s a 50-50 between them. Either or could always lie to claim they are the keymaster, but the keymaster will be safe either way.
I don’t think Gin will get the sacrifice card because of this.
