Jul 11, 2015
Have done some more mathematical workings, to post or not to post
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Have done some more mathematical workings, to post or not to post
so you do count the pilot ratings too? i thought within (tv) statistic it works that way that statistical outlier is removed. there was that arrow post a while ago that mentioned that but obvs i have no idea.
I included the pilots for all the TV shows, a couple of the shows I did only had 8-10 episodes so I use as many episodes as I can get.
If you are talking about the drop in AOS after the pilot that is actually an anomaly among the shows, most of the shows with a high pilot continue to have high numbers for the rest of season one (and usually beyond). All the shows suffer a drop after the pilot, not as drastic as AOS, but a drop none the less.
In the Blacklist there is a sudden jump of over 20 million viewers for a single episode, that is included in the predictions.
Yes, an outlier effects the accuracy (and I will make a post about the accuracy of each show prediction some time in the next week, once I have the time to sit down and do all the working) but the greater the number of episodes I have to work with the less effect a single outlier will make on the overall result. A show like Agents of SHIELD with 44 episodes is one of the better ones I’ve had to work with, a lot of them are either in their first season or work in half seasons (13 episodes). In some early calculations my predictions of AOS is slightly more accurate than a show with over 200 episodes (Supernatural).
Basically I include all the episodes I can, to take out the pilot of one show (say AOS) would mean, in fairness, I should take out the pilots of all episodes and none of the other shows have as drastic a drop in views after the pilot to warrant that. Blacklist is the only other show I can think of off the top of my head with such a drastic change for a single episode (although that went up not down) and the decline in AOS is continual, it is not like it drops after the pilot and then levels out.
A quick calculations shows that taking out the AOS pilot changes very little, the next season opener rises from 3.3 million to 3.5 million and instead of falling to one million viewers in season 3 episode 21 / 22 it happens in season 4 episode 3 / 4.
im dumb and i failed math can you explain why is it that shield by that prediction is going to fall under one million despite the seasoon opener being around three milion but supernatural and the vampire diaries start with 1 million something wont fall xD?
Because although it starts higher it is falling quicker, in only two seasons Agents of SHIELD has lost over 8 million viewers since its pilot while in six seasons vampire diaries has lost only about 3.5 million, in ten seasons Supernatural has lost about only 3 million
Back in February, in this post, I tried to predict how much revenue Age of Ultron would make at the box office, check out how close I was.
Hoping Chris Evans got payed more to be Captain America than Steve Rogers did.
Notes:
Steve was a sickly, working class man coming out of the great depression, he was unlikely to have anything saved before he joined the army
While serving, even as a bonds salesman, the army would have payed for Steve's food and board, what little he did spend could be counted as the interest gathered during the two years of service.
hey im the anon that said im very bad at math and the harry potter question thats all i send i hope you havent gotten any hate or so
There has been some hate, yes but I can handle that. The thing that actually hurts is that people doubt the maths just because they don’t agree with the results.
Hey I'm actually rather curious about your ratings graph. Since you said you calculated the results mathematically, may I ask you to show us your methodology? Like your hypothesis, statistical graphing methods, equations and solutions etc. Would be really interesting to know how you came to the results you did, since there were no numbers in the results list :)
This picture is actually the condensed version of my workings, the actual workings is about fifteen pages long. The pages I posted contain a graph of the views, a table of the ratings, views, episodes and which characters a certain episode was focused on (either one character, two or even the entire team), The other tables are only a summary of my workings.
I highly doubt people want to shift through pages of my workings in hopes of finding a single flaw just because they don’t agree with my results.
To everyone (mainly the anonymous message senders, who I actually believe is one person),
The math behind THIS post is solid. I thought a lot about it both before I actually did the math and before I posted it online where I knew Ward haters would see it. I wouldn't have posted it if the math was flawed
No, I did not manipulate the data to make Ward look good.
No, I did not manipulate the results to make Ward look good.
Yes, characters do effect ratings and views.
No, I did not make the data up
Yes, I Stand With Ward BUT I am also mathematician and I go where the math takes me. If Coulson had effected ratings and views the most I would have posted that to.
I ignore all hate, believe me I have had far worse in real life, face to face, to be effected by people who have to go anonymous to feel stronger BUT DO NOT EVER DOUBT THE MATHEMATICS BEHIND MY FINDINGS.