The Cubs Should NOT Re-Sign Dexter Fowler
It’s recently been rumored that the Chicago Cubs are interested in bringing back Dexter Fowler. Fowler was great for the Cubs last season, especially post All-Star break where he slashed .272/.389/.463. Re-signing Fowler would be similar to the Ben Zobrist deal, in the sense that it would be contingent on Jorge Soler being moved. The Cubs have been tied to several teams, and it has been reported that they would be willing to move Soler for the right young controllable arm. Assuming a deal happens, Fowler would play CF and bat leadoff. Jason Heyward would move over to his more natural position of RF, and the Cubs would acquire a young, controllable arm that would slot in as their third or fourth starter. I agree with the overall theme of this plan, I just don’t want Dexter Fowler.
The offensive argument for Fowler is the Cubs lack a “traditional” leadoff hitter, but Fowler isn’t traditional either. He’s 6’ 5”, has solid speed, and good on-base skills. His profile isn’t much different than the Cubs other leadoff options (Heyward and Zobrist), he just has more experience in the role. Defensively, Fowler can cover a lot of ground in CF. Outside of that, he has a decent arm and has never been considered anything more than an average defender. The main issue with Fowler is that he turns 30 in a month, will be looking for a multi-year deal, and the Cubs wouldn’t acquire the draft compensation he currently has tied to him. The Cubs gave up their first and second round picks in this year’s draft to sign Jason Heyward and John Lackey. Getting back the compensatory pick for Fowler will help off-set those losses and make sure we continue to build our farm system. Short and simple: bringing Fowler back would be a short-sighted move that could hurt our flexibility in the future.
In 2013, Theo Epstein took Kris Bryant number two overall in the draft. Bryant won the NL Rookie of the Year award last year and has ‘superstar’ written all over him. In 2014, Theo Epstein took Kyle Schwarber number four overall in the draft. Schwarber came up mid-season last year and hit balls harder than I thought was humanly possible. In 233 AB, he slashed .246/.355/.487 with 16 bombs and 43 runs driven in. Along with Jorge Soler and Addison Russell (acquired via trade), these four represent the type of elite talent that Theo has been able to acquire during his short tenure. With the early successes of all these guys, it’s easy to forget about other prospects, but there’s one guy that shouldn’t be forgotten.
In 2012, Theo Epstein’s first year on the job, he selected a high school outfielder sixth overall in the draft. This was strange since Theo had typically avoided high school players early in the draft due to the risk associated with them, but Albert Almora was different. He was extremely mature for his age and had an extensive background with Team USA Baseball. Here’s what mlb.com had to say about Almora’s record with Team USA, “In 2011, he was named USA Baseball's Athlete of the Year after helping the 18-and-under squad go 9-0 and earn the gold medal in the Pan-Am Games, an event in which he was named tournament Most Valuable Player. He has been part of six USA national teams, tied for the most by any player with former Major League catcher A.J. Hinch, and has earned five gold medals.” It was reported that after meeting Almora, Theo loved him so much he joked that he wanted to adopt him.
The reason you may not have heard about Almora is that he doesn’t have the offensive profiles of guys like Bryant or Schwarber. He’s a solid hitter that will drive the ball to different part of the fields, but doesn’t have home run power. Almora was promoted to Double A last year and struggled in the beginning, but came on in the end. Post All-Star break he posted a slash line of .301/.370/.464 with 18 doubles and 26 runs batted in. What’s intriguing about Almora is his defensive ability. Mlb.com recently ranked him as the 89th best prospect entering the 2016 season, and graded his Arm as a 60 and his Fielding as a 65 (scale is out of 80). To put those grades into perspective, his Arm is graded similar to Jayson Werth and his Defense is between Carlos Gomez and Michael Bourn. In their write up they say, “he looks like a future Gold Glover in center field. Despite just average speed, he gets tremendous jumps and takes precise routes that allow him to track down balls from gap to gap. His strong, accurate arm is another asset.” Almora’s bat isn’t ready for the show, but he’s there defensively.
If the Cubs decide to move Soler before the season, the better option would be to look for a defensive minded CF on a one year deal. Austin Jackson would be a good fit, assuming he would take a one year deal. Another option is to stay put, and see how Heyward handles CF. There’s no rush to make a deal, and if the Cubs decide it isn’t working out by the trade deadline, Almora may be ready to come up by then.
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