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[josemesaisdead]

A "Super Max" Contract For Kyrie Irving?

In October, Kyrie Irving,  two-time NBA All-Star, will begin the fourth season of his Rookie Scale Contract. He will therefore, in the language of the NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement, be a "5th Year Eligible Player" at the end of the 2014-15 campaign.

As a result, Irving is free to sign an extension with the Cavaliers starting this summer. Kyrie and his agent and the team have through October 31st to come to terms on an agreement. If they do not, Irving will be a free agent after the '14-'15 season unless the Cavs make a qualifying offer of $9.7M - at which point Irving would become a restricted free agent (meaning the Cavaliers would have the option to match any competing contract offers).

No doubt negotiations between Irving's reps and the front office will begin shortly after July 1st. While there is reason to question whether or not Irving is worth a Maximum Contract Extension, the Cavs have to at least play the game. Even owed max money, Kyrie would most likely be easily tradable.

How much money then are the Cavs set to offer the young PG? 

Per the CBA, a Maximum Salary Extension for Irving is determined by first calculating 25% of the salary cap at the time the contract is signed. The deal can be up to five years long, with a raise of up to 7.5% of the base year salary per year.

Here then is what the contract would look like based off a projected salary cap of $66.5M in 2015:

2015-16

$16.625M

2016-17

$17.871875M

2017-18

$19.11875M

2018-19

$20.365625M

2019-20

$21.6125M

TOTAL DEAL $95,593,750

(Note that the last year of Irving's Rookie Scale Contract is revised as part of the extension. Irving signing a 5-Year Max Extension would give the Cavs control of his playing rights for four, not five, additional years.)

That said...

Irving may actually be eligible to receive a "Super Max" Contract Extension this summer.

What is a "Super Max" Contract Extension?

Notably, the term "Super Max" does not appear in the NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement; it appears to be a term that was invented by the press. The term though alludes to a specific section of the CBA that calls for Fifth Year Eligible Players to be eligible for a Maximum Salary worth 30% of the salary cap, instead of 25%, if he meets one of the following criteria (again, directly from the CBA): 

(i) the player is named twice to the All-NBA first, second, or third team

(ii) the player is voted in twice as an All-Star starter

(iii) the player is designated once as NBA MVP

Irving, everyone should know, has not yet met any of these criteria. Although he is a two-time All-Star, he was only voted in once; the first time he was selected by the coaches. 

Therefore, Irving is not eligible for a Super Max Extension... yet.

Max Extensions for Fifth Year Eligible Players are drawn up in a way to allow for the fact that a player could meet one of the above criteria during his fourth season.

This puts the Cavs in a precarious position. 

If the fans vote Irving into the All-Star game this season as a starter, he will meet one of the above-referenced criteria, and his deal will suddenly cost far more than originally planned. 

Here's what Irving's contract would look like if he gets the "Super Max:"

2015-16

$19.95M

2016-17

$21.44625M

2017-18

$22.9425M

2018-19

$24.43875M

2019-20

$25.935M

TOTAL DEAL $114,712,500

The difference is a staggering $19,118,750 over the course of five years.

The result is a perverse incentive for the Cavs to kill any effort by the fans to vote Irving into the All-Star game as a starter - which would force the team to give him the Super Max and therefore eliminate a portion of important cap space that could be used to help build the team moving forward.

Clearly, a winning number of votes for Irving would not make him a better basketball player. 

If the Cavs and Irving agree to an extension, then, should the team start an anti-Irving stealth campaign? Maybe it should just root wholeheartedly for a healthy Derek Rose and Rajon Rondo - and for John Wall to continue to get a whole hell of a lot better. 

[josemesaisdead]

THE CALCULUS OF LEBRON'S DECISION

Here is one flow chart of how LeBron James might decide what to do on or after July 8, 2014 --

1) Will Dwyane Wade opt in or out? 

2) Will Chris Bosh opt in or out? 

3) Given the above, which players can Pat Riley promise to add to the roster in Miami? 

4) Where will Carmelo Anthony sign? 

5) Given the above, what is the probability of the Heat winning the East? This can be calculated to some extent using estimated wins in combination with analyzing match ups and gut instinct. 

6) Which other teams in the NBA are realistic options for LeBron to sign with? 

7) If any of these teams are in the Western Conference, what is the probability of said team making it to the Finals? Again, this can be calculated to some degree.

8) Do the Heat have a higher probability of making it to the Finals than team B in the West? I suspect the answer to this is likely "yes" unless Melo signs with Chicago and then the answer is a little more gray.

9) What is the overall probability of team B in the West winning the championship? What is the overall probability of the Heat winning the championship given the above factors?

10) Which situation offers the highest probability of winning a title?

Note that this examines the decision on the basis of winning a title in 2015 and nothing else. The choice becomes far more complex if the calculus involves winning multiple championships over multiple years. The number of variables increase exponentially. 

This analysis is also based in the idea that LeBron will execute on a robot-like thought process grounded in one simple question: "What gives me the highest probability of winning a title in 2015?"

We have been taught to think about a free agent's decision in far more emotional terms, factoring in qualities like loyalty, legacy, and quality of off the court life. As computer analysis becomes a deeper part of our culture, this may or may not change in sports, which are a replacement for religion in many ways in an increasingly secular America. In general, I think the question of legacy is a silly one to discuss while a player is still playing. Not only are we comparing what he does to what other players did in a fundamentally different world, league, and game, we are also trying to establish something - a legacy - that by definition can't be established until after a player's career has ended.

Certainly people in some sectors would deride LeBron if he "chased" championships with different teams for the rest of his career. But if he were to win, say, eight more championships (yes, the probability of it being this high is low) and largely remained the best player on his team throughout this period no one at his Hall of Fame induction speech could really say shit.