In NBA betting, the general rule is the more that is known, the harder it is to find good value. If Team A is exponentially better than Team B, the lines reflect it.
But if that rule is true, then the opposite must also be true. The less that is known, the more volatile the line, the more the public is off, and the greater chance that you can find a line with good value.
Well, never in the history of basketball has there been less known about what is going to happen in Orlando. No home courts, no fans, and everyone living under one bubble. Trying to parse what will happen based on where things stood in March is a fool’s errand.
LA Clippers (+4.5) vs. Los Angeles Lakers - July 30
That takes us to our first best bet this weekend. Are the Lakers really 4.5 points better than the Clippers? Four months away from competitive basketball makes it impossible to say. This feels like too big of a line for these two very evenly matched teams.
Also, it’s important to remember that this is just a seeding game, and the Lakers are already going to be tough to catch atop the West. The Clippers have a much greater incentive when they take the floor.
Orlando Magic (-6.5) vs. Brooklyn Nets - July 31
No NBA team has less to play for than the Nets, and no team is headed to Orlando with fewer of its star players. No Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving, and with no real incentive to win, means that the Nets will be treating the Orlando bubble like a training camp for next season.
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